tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-50645475177300872232024-03-12T17:05:00.362-05:00The Platoon AdvantageCome for the baseball, stay for the other stuff.The Common Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09994070642805307798noreply@blogger.comBlogger1005125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-56204469674409939382012-04-05T08:00:00.002-05:002012-04-05T08:00:21.598-05:00Moving Day<div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQWdK2vYqemG-2QMGZeMQufRJAJSYxr8yhQAr0KY0lX8xTzlq4HVWhkeSKG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" dea="true" src="http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQWdK2vYqemG-2QMGZeMQufRJAJSYxr8yhQAr0KY0lX8xTzlq4HVWhkeSKG" /></a></div>Hi there.<br />
<br />
You’ve come here looking for us. And sadly, you won’t find us here. Only the lonely sound of crickets chirping.<br />
<br />
Happily, you will find us at our new site on the Bloguin network. We even took all our archived articles over there too. So…yeah, there’s not really any reason you should be here. Maybe you should check out our new digs. We’d love to see you.<br />
<br />
Thanks!<br />
<br />
The TPA Crew,<br />
<br />
TCM, Bill, Jason, Cee, and ChrisThe Common Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09994070642805307798noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-7094268303728986162012-03-28T11:01:00.000-05:002012-03-28T11:01:33.140-05:00TPA Ottoneu Draft - Monte Pfeffer's Heifers<b>By Chris St. John</b><br />
<br />
<b>INTRODUCTION</b><br />
The Platoon Advantage (the site you are reading right now) started an <a href="http://ottoneu.fangraphs.com/">ottoneu league</a> with a few friends and here is my obligatory post about the draft. If I seem to post this begrudgingly, it is because I am. This is a mandatory post and my overlords here would fire me and sue me for all of the millions I am earning with this.<br />
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I picked my team name using the baseball-reference random page feature. It led me to a player named <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peffemo01.shtml">Monte Pfeffer</a> with four career plate appearances and I liked the sound of it. I then found a rhyming word with Pfeffer and went with it. There is no historical information to confirm or deny the reports that Monte Pfeffer ever owned a heifer. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/season_finder.cgi?type=b#gotresults&as=result_batter&offset=0&sum=1&min_year_season=1871&max_year_season=2011&min_season=1&max_season=-1&min_age=0&max_age=99&lg_ID=lgAny&lgAL_team=tmAny&lgNL_team=tmAny&lgFL_team=tmAny&lgAA_team=tmAny&lgPL_team=tmAny&lgUA_team=tmAny&lgNA_team=tmAny&isActive=either&isHOF=either&isAllstar=either&bats=any&throws=any&exactness=anypos&games_min_max=min&games_prop=50&games_tot=&pos_1=1&pos_2=1&pos_3=1&pos_4=1&pos_5=1&pos_6=1&pos_7=1&pos_8=1&pos_9=1&pos_10=1&qualifiersSeason=nomin&minpasValS=502&mingamesValS=100&qualifiersCareer=nomin&minpasValC=3000&mingamesValC=1000&orderby=HBP&c1criteria=PA&c1gtlt=eq&c1val=4&c2criteria=H&c2gtlt=eq&c2val=0&c3criteria=G&c3gtlt=eq&c3val=1&c4criteria=BB&c4gtlt=eq&c4val=0&c5criteria=&c5gtlt=eq&c5val=1.0&c6criteria=&location=pob&locationMatch=is&pob=&pod=&pcanada=&pusa=&saved_query=&ajax=1&submitter=1">Play-index bonus</a>: Pfeffer is the only player to ever have a career in which he played in only one game, had four plate appearances, no walks and one hit by pitch.<br />
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<b>STRATEGY</b><br />
I had never done an auction draft before, so I was a little worried about being behind in that area. Thankfully, this was a common theme throughout the draft room, which made me feel more comfortable. In order to have a plan of action, I googled "baseball auction draft strategy" and found the idea of nominating expensive players that I didn't really want. This makes other teams spend more money so you are in a better position with the players you really want. This worked with my other strategy of taking really good young players, who turned out to be popular with everyone (imagine that).<br />
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<b>DRAFT EXPERIENCE</b><br />
The draft was definitely an experience. I spent about 10 hours in the draft room (over three days), excluding all of the time preparing beforehand. One reason it took so long to draft is because ottoneu teams have 40 spots to fill. However, this should still not take so long. The other problem was that each individual player auction took <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-Q7b-vHY3Q">for...ev...er</a>. Teams have 30 seconds to nominate a player. When a team is not in the draft room or is having an impossible time getting the drafting software to allow them to nominate anyone, this is a complete waste of 30 seconds. If this happens hundreds of times throughout the draft, you are wasting an hour or two just waiting on a team to be skipped. This could be fixed if a team was automatically skipped if they were not in the draft room or if the computer automatically nominated a player when the clock ran out.<br />
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The drafting software was buggy. There is a watch list that is useful to be prepared for the next nomination, but players who are purchased are not removed from the list until you refresh the page. The chat software was not reliable, so we used GChat instead. There were a few snafus with actual bidding as well. I remember one specific time when I tried to bid on Gary Brown. My bid went through with three seconds left. Then, my bid was deleted, the clock ran out and the other team got him instead. A few other players had problems with the screen freezing, but I never ran into that myself. There were also a few times where a drafter would bid on a a player, only to have his bid happen twice, basically overbidding himself. It would also be helpful if players were placed in a roster during the draft to show which teams need to fill which positions. This is a prominent feature on Yahoo and I use it often during the draft. Finally, there need to be sounds when a player is nominated and when your turn comes up. I missed a few of these because there was no notification.<br />
<br />
I did enjoy the overall experience, though. I had a good time chatting with my league-mates and the auction was actually pretty fun. I kept myself busy the entire time, updating my spreadsheet with how much each player went for and finding who my next targets were. I will definitely not be doing another ottoneu league because I don't have another 10 hours of free time to commit to a draft, but I do have a more open mind toward auction leagues in general.<br />
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<b>DRAFT EXECUTION</b><br />
I found out pretty early that people were willing to shell out big bucks for top players. In fact, at least 26 of the players chosen went for the highest values in the ottoneu points universe, led by Jacoby Ellsbury at $53. Here's a chart of the average ottoneu price and how much each player went for in the auction:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzK0zn06hjK3lnX3q1158QIi52NZOa2Ac7rfBrmlbpoHJLQjywiJHsJFS_q8eFb69CsvKjB-jMwbSeHld9NsClg7qHlBnMZN7SFcULfXi36bEDoImNsQjtOl7wcpi5YiqVKwFfKgPq7fKD/s1600/avgottoneu.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzK0zn06hjK3lnX3q1158QIi52NZOa2Ac7rfBrmlbpoHJLQjywiJHsJFS_q8eFb69CsvKjB-jMwbSeHld9NsClg7qHlBnMZN7SFcULfXi36bEDoImNsQjtOl7wcpi5YiqVKwFfKgPq7fKD/s320/avgottoneu.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i>Click to enlarge</i></div><br />
I used some different projections and the average market for different types of players to create a price that I would be willing to pay for each player. This helped me limit my spending early on. The only time I jumped in on an auction was with one of my cornerstone players. The early restraint allowed me to dominate those auctions and get the players I really wanted. I feel pretty good about my draft overall, but was a little aggravated at how much I had to pay for some of the players. The early overpay made me miss out on some players that I had valued far above average.<br />
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<b>MY TEAM</b><br />
Finally, the part where I talk about my team. I'm fairly happy with it, though I don't think I'm in a great position this year. I have a few young players who are still a year or two away from fully contributing and didn't get the necessary depth to account for that. Here is my roster:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7bgsExa80nY4ir5oqNV0xqmWCHO4k1oeV2-uwBWo3mvvF-AIV0b_ZtGWiqUL1q1T-d58XwPonSFiJ7wH4tiTZ4UzZtx0z1r8oIf4bIyDk768bmS8lqz-223zWjDOgsRBzHiIvyZW-Lido/s1600/ottoneuroster.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7bgsExa80nY4ir5oqNV0xqmWCHO4k1oeV2-uwBWo3mvvF-AIV0b_ZtGWiqUL1q1T-d58XwPonSFiJ7wH4tiTZ4UzZtx0z1r8oIf4bIyDk768bmS8lqz-223zWjDOgsRBzHiIvyZW-Lido/s320/ottoneuroster.jpg" width="96" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i>Click to enlarge</i></div><br />
Here's how that breaks down in terms of cost:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk9banGc_NZ4a9sgzPDxp0_3EkLk3Mv-VlhJIsAaa2MkRBwAzBzbpxQtWpGCNEetEyoxNbJTgOxTHj9DF9m81bFi1mzuZWgsEYQAa0t3RPLIifZxoEwvBhR0bcmvyyv5odkLRoSn2wOdZX/s1600/ottoneubreakdown.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk9banGc_NZ4a9sgzPDxp0_3EkLk3Mv-VlhJIsAaa2MkRBwAzBzbpxQtWpGCNEetEyoxNbJTgOxTHj9DF9m81bFi1mzuZWgsEYQAa0t3RPLIifZxoEwvBhR0bcmvyyv5odkLRoSn2wOdZX/s1600/ottoneubreakdown.jpg" /></a></div><br />
I focused on young players and had some definite targets in mind, leading me to overpay for Stephen Strasburg and Mike Trout, most noticeably. I did miss out on some of the top pitching prospects, but I preferred to save my money until the end.<br />
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According to the average values, these are the players I most over and underpaid for:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhqmXCLgYYlLE8UbRdk1mZM5tBZZ4Azws6EKpfMHvQxWSjqu0KJjJVCtWaHvXidi74z8EU1tZYj4pJ7rnupcN9XDdGgmgR8bo84yjpS5V2jSUscZvl-GjHKPrQ4APLPYMhpXjqhDmiEAof/s1600/ottoneuoverunderpay.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhqmXCLgYYlLE8UbRdk1mZM5tBZZ4Azws6EKpfMHvQxWSjqu0KJjJVCtWaHvXidi74z8EU1tZYj4pJ7rnupcN9XDdGgmgR8bo84yjpS5V2jSUscZvl-GjHKPrQ4APLPYMhpXjqhDmiEAof/s320/ottoneuoverunderpay.jpg" width="262" /></a></div><br />
I'm comfortable with most of the overpays, since Trout, Strasburg, Hosmer and Harper form a great future base. If they become what they are capable of, these could very well become huge discounts. Starlin Castro was my target at SS, but he went for $26. There were not many good young SS available after Cabrera, so I did overpay for him a bit. I'll have to hope that his breakout last year was for real, even though <a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/home-runs.html">I've already found</a> that it probably isn't.<br />
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The Ryan Howard pick was actually an accident. I nominated him for $2, thinking the bidding would bring his price up to $10 and someone else could have him. At that point, I already had Hosmer and Joey Votto at 1B, so another one was unnecessary. However, no one wanted him and I got him for the opening bid. This could be a great value next year if he remains healthy. Reynolds was one of the lone 3B left toward the end of the draft and I still didn't have one. He had been a target all along and I waited for the right chance to grab him.<br />
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<b>CONCLUSION</b><br />
I'm happy with my team. I have Nick Markakis, a good group of prospects and a lot of talented youngsters who have already proven themselves in the Major Leagues. I may have trouble sticking to the top of the league this year, but feel like I have put myself in a good position to compete in the years to come.Chris St. Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03346868654558458088noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-837217317163398742012-03-27T14:00:00.000-05:002012-03-27T14:00:00.867-05:00What Is a Ground-Ball Pitcher?Earlier today, Rob Neyer wrote a post about <a href="http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/3/27/2905378/ground-ball-pitchers-definition-brandon-mccarthy">how to define a ground-ball pitcher</a>. His conclusion:<br />
<blockquote>More than 50 percent, and you're a ground-ball pitcher. More than 55 percent and you're an <em>extreme</em> ground-ball pitcher (if not quite Brandon Webb).</blockquote>Well I wasn't completely convinced, so I decided to do this for myself. I used Baseball Prospectus's ground ball statistics and defined GB% as GB/Batted Ball (as they do). Here is a graph of GB% since 1950:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2mvJ6dw4sv1cBZ2VHcSJjAYAx0sVxmx8Hwf1rR69gWm9Kl2jn4jSw4u47ZyOvty7ETfshGdpvnQB9ViDxfqsYWPhM52qK4lJR9qpCOdKWCb_XMq0f0HUY19hD-t5Aj5m4VO7GZeTqpfhp/s1600/AvgGBPrctYear.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2mvJ6dw4sv1cBZ2VHcSJjAYAx0sVxmx8Hwf1rR69gWm9Kl2jn4jSw4u47ZyOvty7ETfshGdpvnQB9ViDxfqsYWPhM52qK4lJR9qpCOdKWCb_XMq0f0HUY19hD-t5Aj5m4VO7GZeTqpfhp/s320/AvgGBPrctYear.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i>Click to enlarge</i></div><br />
The data from 2000-2002 only show outs, so those years are removed from this analysis. Throughout the 50s and 60s, GB% rose steadily. It held fairly constant until the early 80s, declined through the 90s and has been holding steady again throughout the 2000s. So the definition of a high ground-ball pitcher has changed throughout the years.<br />
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<a name='more'></a><br />
And how did I decide to define a high ground-ball pitcher? With <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_score">z-scores</a>, of course. For the more inquiring minds out there, here is a Q-Q plot for the 2011 data, including pitchers with more than 100 batted balls:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-r1Te13bS9U2Silpc6z0AyXSaM6VWB7BQl5f1XldXxF0m9qB8sknW036XrFvySgAjpRB7NBdlD94NdziZf3wxnivX_VmZXSFx9H7tY2Cq06sRDyXBpkSF2Fflvnh4H46XsJXrXjfNLO0P/s1600/GBPrctQQ.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-r1Te13bS9U2Silpc6z0AyXSaM6VWB7BQl5f1XldXxF0m9qB8sknW036XrFvySgAjpRB7NBdlD94NdziZf3wxnivX_VmZXSFx9H7tY2Cq06sRDyXBpkSF2Fflvnh4H46XsJXrXjfNLO0P/s320/GBPrctQQ.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i>Click to enlarge</i></div><br />
Those three outliers are Jonny Venters, Brad Ziegler and Bobby Cassevah. The data do appear to have a normal distribution, so I'll go ahead with the z-score analysis.<br />
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Very low to very high ground-ball pitchers are split up by standard deviation. Very low is 2 standard deviations below the mean and Very high is 2 SDs above the mean. Low and high are 1 SD above or below the mean. This table shows these percentages for pitchers for every year since 1950, excluding 2000-2002:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiteFwXbUDrabhyIS0FdoWQC0_c4n-m0iZm0HMFdruQGS9BZNegIGtqfrmQZOAYEK1-ukE8KDcIG4Z30230cHtJGUtlH-P7_Puvt96mJzW4P45HiPl6ixpgo42e0uiXlBjJEZ5613rwGOF2/s1600/YearlyGBs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiteFwXbUDrabhyIS0FdoWQC0_c4n-m0iZm0HMFdruQGS9BZNegIGtqfrmQZOAYEK1-ukE8KDcIG4Z30230cHtJGUtlH-P7_Puvt96mJzW4P45HiPl6ixpgo42e0uiXlBjJEZ5613rwGOF2/s320/YearlyGBs.jpg" width="77" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i>Click to enlarge</i></div><br />
And here are the most extreme ground-ball pitcher years. I filtered the results to show only pitchers with more than 300 batted balls, just to make it more interesting:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu4nJCadqV4w4Eggf_UqI1dPhwk8zuC8mk2R7TUMfzysQOoIezoM2DUKzEmqa47FXDekAqmySHmiMWhJD6LOHLtI848Soys9UFZTPqgLhn3YGOxw0YPwn3xIEPF-k0JZ6Shn3GRHuyFDn0/s1600/extremeGBYears.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu4nJCadqV4w4Eggf_UqI1dPhwk8zuC8mk2R7TUMfzysQOoIezoM2DUKzEmqa47FXDekAqmySHmiMWhJD6LOHLtI848Soys9UFZTPqgLhn3YGOxw0YPwn3xIEPF-k0JZ6Shn3GRHuyFDn0/s320/extremeGBYears.jpg" width="153" /></a></div><br />
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My conclusion? Over the past 25 years, a high ground-ball pitcher has a GB% over 54. An extreme ground-ball pitcher's GB% is over 61.<br />
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If you have any questions, you can contact me in the comments below or on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/stealofhome">@stealofhome</a>.Chris St. Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03346868654558458088noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-21334340736331760352012-03-27T13:00:00.003-05:002012-03-27T13:00:05.671-05:00Which Free Agents Were Overpaid This Off-season?<b>By Chris St. John</b><br />
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<br />
<b>INTRODUCTION</b><br />
This post has been in the work for five months. I wanted to see for myself how good each free agent signing was in terms of the market, so throughout the off-season, I kept track of how much money each Major League free agent signed for. I used each player's past three seasons and included an aging curve to estimate how useful he will be to his team for the length of the contract. These are their stories (dun-dun):<br />
<br />
<b>METHOD</b><br />
I found the average of each player's previous three years WAR from Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference and Baseball Prospectus. Then I used an aging curve to determine what a team might be expecting from the player in the future.<br />
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I split relief pitchers from all other players because their market is different than everyone else.<br />
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Buyouts are included in the guaranteed salary, but options are not. If a player has a 3 million dollar option with a 1 million dollar buyout, only the guaranteed buyout money is included in the average yearly figure. I also tried to exclude non-guaranteed contracts, though some may have slipped through the cracks (I barely caught Casey Blake's).<br />
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This isn't meant to be a highly precise representation of how teams valued players. If you read my work for any amount of time, you can tell that I shy away from factoring everything into an analysis. I prefer to do quick and dirty, in the ballpark type of stuff, while acknowledging the limitations of what I have done. So take this for what it is: a simple career average plus aging curve dollar per win graph.<br />
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<b>RESULTS</b><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7TcDo4hMCxVc8oiI6I213ShnhIcBLRynHR_mIorwGil1XOrEK5u8aswBqFen05ax4WrbLu01u2uWErairldxX0I3n1KZlmeAVqI-68t4fAmktPjdCYhZGldw9_voAWgn3PgDfu5Hz0BUx/s1600/2012FASignings.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7TcDo4hMCxVc8oiI6I213ShnhIcBLRynHR_mIorwGil1XOrEK5u8aswBqFen05ax4WrbLu01u2uWErairldxX0I3n1KZlmeAVqI-68t4fAmktPjdCYhZGldw9_voAWgn3PgDfu5Hz0BUx/s320/2012FASignings.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i>Click to enlarge</i></div><a name='more'></a>The trend-lines on the graph are equal to ($/WAR)*(Yearly War)+$500,000. I made 500k the y-intercept, since even a replacement player will make the minimum salary. I used average yearly values instead of overall values for this graph so Albert Pujols's $240 million contract wouldn't squeeze all of the $1 million contracts together.<br />
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A polynomial trend-line actually fits both data sets better, but <a href="http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2010/11/on-per-win-estimates-of-baseball-players-worth/">non-linear dollars per win</a> is an <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/linear-dollars-per-win-again/">argument</a> in itself. This data set is obviously not large or technical enough to draw those types of conclusions from.<br />
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Here are the top five overpaid and underpaid players by total salary. I excluded relievers from this section, because the high $/WAR figure creates large negative values for below-replacement relievers.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_Y0jD_cAvoEN_Px-UwpY7U9wYbCR5xpTZlHG3cCVZFSptAgLNP8Jd4XHCdbiXVwqXpiVvXe7HZz_cTw17rj8m-HFKXbTYPzF4cxi6A2HL-e3SdJO3WQrWR_736A8485ZRDIJ8WAHo7cms/s1600/overunderpay.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_Y0jD_cAvoEN_Px-UwpY7U9wYbCR5xpTZlHG3cCVZFSptAgLNP8Jd4XHCdbiXVwqXpiVvXe7HZz_cTw17rj8m-HFKXbTYPzF4cxi6A2HL-e3SdJO3WQrWR_736A8485ZRDIJ8WAHo7cms/s320/overunderpay.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
Jonathan Papelbon actually rates as an underpay according to this linear model. Since he is projected for 5.4 wins over the length of his contract and relievers are paid over $11 million per win, this gives him an expected salary of nearly $60 million. However, this excludes the increased injury risk of signing a reliever to a four-year contract. A polynomial model would show him as an overpay.<br />
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<b>CONCLUSION</b><br />
Relief pitchers were paid over double per win this off-season than other players were. We can not continue to view their contracts in the $5 million per win light, as that is simply not how the market works. Also, none of this takes into account team success. If the Tigers win the world series with Prince Fielder, does it make overpaying him worth it? He is certainly more valuable to them than he is to the Baltimore Orioles, a team that wouldn't make the playoffs anyway.<br />
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I would loved to have done this with an interactive Tableau graphic, but have been unable to get those to work with the blogging software on this website.<br />
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As always, you can contact me in the comments or on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/stealofhome">@stealofhome</a>.Chris St. Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03346868654558458088noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-51100695045736426532012-03-27T10:00:00.000-05:002012-03-27T11:23:42.571-05:00The Path to Respectability: Pittsburgh Pirates<p><strong>by Jason Wojciechowski</strong></p>
<p>You've <a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/path-to-respectability-houston-astros.html">seen</a> <a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/path-to-respectability-oakland-as.html">this</a> <a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/path-to-respectability-seattle-mariners.html">a couple</a> <a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/path-to-respectability-kansas-city.html">of times</a> <a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/path-to-respectability-baltimore.html">before</a>, so you know how it goes. Today, we examine the mediocre team with the best stadium in the game, the Pittsburgh Pirates. They're not the sad-sacks they used to be, what with some young stars and a well-regarded front office that's causing better things to come, but they're not really going to be competitive this year, either.</p>
<p>The <em>Baseball Prospectus</em> depth charts, the place I start, has the Pirates coming out 72-90 this year, fifth in the tall stack of the N.L. Central. Their lineup of position players doesn't look terrible, with no Jimmy Paredeses hanging around, but the pitching, which features such luminaries as Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia, and Charlie Morton, is not impressive. Still, I think we're better off trying to squeeze extra wins out of the position players than the pitchers because the former, at least, have some youth and upside to their credit.</p>
<p>As before, I cheat right off the top: we'll count on five wins of run-distribution luck over the course of the season, leaving us needing to find eleven wins on the roster to get the team to the Holy Grail of Respectability, 88 wins.</p>
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<p>The pitching, being the harder (and less interesting, frankly) task, is the place to start. I won't insult you by using the phrase "oft-injured" in writing about Erik Bedard because you knew that already. Still, he sits at the top of the Pirates' heap, quality-wise, and PECOTA loves him: the projection system says he'll be worth 2.4 WARP if he can manage 126 innings. Bedard threw 129 last year, but was last over 100 in 2007. Still, with a career ERA of 3.70, he really has been good when he's been able to take the mound. It's complete folly, but here's what I'm going to ask for from Bedard: 180 innings of baseball. If he does that and pitches at the same level of quality that PECOTA expects in 126 innings, he'll be worth an extra win. (These innings can come at the expense of some replacement-level guy like Brad Lincoln.)</p>
<p>With that absurdity out of the way, we can move to Roy Halladay Reborn himself, Charlie Morton. Morton supposedly rebuilt himself as a pitcher last year, trying to emulate Halladay, and got good early results, but by the end of the year, he'd thrown just over 170 innings and been worth 0.1 WARP. His FIP looked good at 3.74, but when you throw in sequencing and all the other elements that go into <em>BP</em>'s FRA stat, he wound up being essentially a replacement-level pitcher. PECOTA doesn't like what it sees -- it's got him putting up a 4.83 ERA, good for a below-replacement performance in 156 innings. For the Pirates to be respectable, Morton doesn't have to be <em>good</em>, the way everyone thought he had suddenly become in the first few months last year. He just has to be, well, respectable. If he can pitch like he did in 2009 (relative to his league, that is, since his numbers aren't actually much different from 2011 on the surface), he can add a win to the Pirates' totals.</p>
<p>That's the front and the back of the rotation -- two of the pitchers in the middle are Jeff Karstens and James McDonald. Karstens isn't good: his career ERA is 4.52, and he's never been below a 4.26 FIP in a single season. The hope, though, is that 2011, a career year by ERA, FIP, and FRA (and, consequently, WARP), represented an actual step forward. If he keeps his gains in walk rate (1.8 BB/9, a stellar figure) and continues suppressing BABIP, he can repeat 2011 and be worth half a win more than he's currently being expected to contribute. Another half a win can come from James McDonald, who threw a great 64 innings in Pittsburgh in 2010 before having a poor 2011. His 2010 was surely fueled by an unsustainable homer rate (0.4 per nine despite being a big fly-ball pitcher), but McDonalds walks and strikeouts also took a step back in 2011. If he can return to 2010 form or something approximating it, he can get close to being a two-WARP pitcher.</p>
<p>A.J. Burnett came over from the Yankees in a salary dump and promptly bunted a ball into his eye. He's now being figured for 122 innings of 4.16 ERA ball, which comes out to about one WARP. If he can kick the quality up a small notch (to, say, 2008-2009 level, the pitching that netted him this big contract in the first place and then gave Yankees fans hope that he'd actually live up to it) and throw more innings than the Depth Chart has him throwing, he can certainly add half a win to the total. He doesn't have to be great and he doesn't have to throw 200 innings to accomplish this, note. Maybe 175 innings of four-run baseball would do.</p>
<p>Finally, in the bullpen, Daniel Moskos is slated to play a key role and pitching poorly in it, throwing 52 innings with below-replacement performance. PECOTA is justified in thinking that Moskos isn't what he showed in 2011 because his minor-league numbers do not overwhelm, but I don't think it's too much to ask that Moskos be just replacement-level in his innings rather than horrible. He's got some bat-missing and worm-killing in his background, so adding a half win to his expectation should be reasonable.</p>
<p>On the pitching side, then, I'm asking that the Pirates step their game up by four wins. This leaves seven wins for the position players, a total that I think is eminently reachable.</p>
<p>First up is the young right-fielder Jose Tabata, who signed a 6+3 deal with the Pirates last August despite being in the midst of a disappointing year: the 22-year-old slugged just .362 in 2011 and lost 70 games due to injuries. Still, the Pirates apparently believe in Tabata, and he did put up a 1.5-WARP season in 102 games in 2010. The Depth Chart appears to be, weirdly, taking a huge chunk out of Tabata on defense despite his FRAA figures not suggesting that he's Jack Cust in the field. If you add that defense back in and have his bat take a step forward such that his on-base percentage is not merely good, as it's been, but a true asset (say .370), then, especially if Tabata can also have a small increase in power or base-stealing (or if his defense can be a plus in right-field and not merely average), he can be a two-win player, which is about two wins better than the current projection.</p>
<p>Moving to the other corner, Alex Presley is a gritty white guy who's gone from "maybe he can be a fourth outfielder" to "hey, I guess he's the starting left-fielder." Asking a player like that to be better than his projections isn't necessarily a recipe for achievement of one's goals, but in this case, it's a requirement. Fortunately, he doesn't have to be better all by himself because Nate McLouth is also a Pirate. PECOTA is actually pretty optimistic about him, projecting a .269 TAv that beats Presley's pretty handily. Taken together, Presley + McLouth project to basically one WARP in a 2/3 & 1/3 job share. If one of the two proves his worth or if each has a smaller improvement, two WARP instead of one is plausible. Good defense from either player, an on-base percentage from Presley that approaches league-average for his position, the return of McLouth's power ... there are any number of ways we can find an extra win.</p>
<p>Similar whole-position upgrades can be found at catcher and first base. Behind the plate, Rod Barajas and Michael McKenry both project to sub-.300 OBPs. Barajas hit .254/.306/.466 when he was a 29-year-old Ranger. He's 36 now, so those days are over, but if he can catch a little lightning and Michael McKenry, who hit pretty well relative to his leagues all the way until AAA, can regain the stroke that had people talking about him as a possible major-league starter rather than an all-glove backup, then the catcher position can go the same place left field does: from about one WARP to two.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, it's not entirely clear what's happening at first. Garrett Jones, who's played mostly outfield in his career but does have time at first, is marked down for 50% of the time at the cold corner, while new acquisition Casey McGehee is figured for most of the rest. McGehee was once known as a glove-man with an adequate bat, but then he was a good hitter with a mediocre glove at the major-league level. A horrendous 2011 with Milwaukee leaves significant doubt about what he is, and PECOTA splits the difference between 2010 and 2011, calling for a .311 OBP and .396 SLG. That's essentially replacement level, leaving first base in the now-familiar position of being approximately a one-WARP spot for Pittsburgh. There's upside in them hills, though, and it's not hard to imagine McGehee, at least, tapping into that upside (in the form of a return to bashing) and turning first base into a solid two-WARP place.</p>
<p>Related to McGehee potentially hitting is that he's also slated to be a third baseman, especially if Pedro Alvarez stinks up the joint like he did last year (.191/.272/.289 -- no, really). PECOTA, probably wisely, isn't buying that Alvarez will be that bad -- the man is the former number two overall pick, after all (I'm not sure if the current state of PECOTA knows about that), and he did hit quite well all the way up the minor-league chain, and he's still just 25 -- the current projection for Alvarez calls for 1.7 WARP in 461 PAs. The thing is, Alvarez has to be better than solidish/averageish for the Pirates to ever get anywhere, so starting to tap into his potential and performing a win above that projection is a good start. Simply taking most of the 650 PAs at third will take care of a good chunk of that (since the playing time he's replacing as far as the Depth Chart is concerned is that of McGehee, with his replacement-level projection), but an uptick in hitting from his league-average TAv projection to something a bit above that (.270? .275? These are reasonable figures for a hitter with the physical tools Alvarez is supposed to possess) is probably necessary as well.</p>
<p>If Alvarez can add one win, then the sum of what we've got so far is +10 (which is +15 counting the run-distribution luck), so we're just one win shy of the 88-win goal. For that win, we turn to top catching prospect turned third baseman turned second baseman Neil Walker. Walker hit quite well in his full-season debut in 2010 (.296/.349/.462), though FRAA dinged him massively (-16!) for his defense, which shouldn't be a huge surprise given that he'd never played second base. FRAA showed ten runs of improvement in 2011, but the bat slipped quite a bit. If 2012 can serve as a consolidation season for the 26-year-old, it's easy to see him cracking the two-WARP barrier with a combination of an adequate glove, a solid bat, and good durability.</p>
<p>As I noted at the beginning of this post, you have to squint a little harder to see the Pirate pitching staff improving than you do the offense, which has prospects and former prospects and guys who've hit at high levels running all up and down. The hurlers have, basically, mediocre players and injured players. I can absolutely see the Pirates being a fun team for nine half innings each day, but I might swap over to another game when it's time for Charlie Morton or Kevin Correia to take the mound. This team won't win 88 games, but there's something for all my Yinzer friends to get excited about.</p>Jason Wojciechowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16935366214824790506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-63013183146913495362012-03-23T17:04:00.002-05:002012-03-23T17:06:27.211-05:00The Meddler, Part 2: Heyman lets Torii Hunter slander Lew Ford<strong>By The Common Man</strong><br />
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Yesterday, as you'll recall from <a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/meddler.html">TCM's post this morning</a>, Jon Heyman said some things that were basically untrue. Today, he opened his laptop again and <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/17995079/hunter-and-cuddyer-admit-twins-were-psyched-out-by-yankees">relayed information that was patently, blatantly false</a> in his post contending the Twins were consistently intimidated by the Yankees in their playoff losses. Take it away, Jon:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">Ex-Twins star Torii Hunter said some Twins players were beaten before they started, which finally confirms what has long been suspected: that the Twins are intimidated by the Yankees.... Hunter recalled one 2004 ALDS game the Twins lost where they had a runner on third with one out, down a run against the great Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, and Twins manager called on a young righty hitters to bat against Rivera, and Hunter recalled that hitter turning down the pinch-hit assignment. "You need a righty hitter against Rivera with his cutter,'' Hunter recalled. But according to Hunter, Ford shook his head no. So Gardenhoire used another kid, Jason Kubel, a lefthanded hitter, who Hunter recalled getting jammed. "Kubel wasn't afraid, but he's a lefty hitter,'' Hunter said.</blockquote>That's a really compelling story, undone only by the small problem that it never happened. At least not like Torii Hunter said it did. Kubel never pinch hit against Rivera in 2004 (his first year in the Majors), and Lew Ford started three of the four games, and in the one he didn't start, Rivera faced six batters, and none of them were (or should have been) pinch hit for.<br />
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<a name='more'></a>Also, at no point in the article does Heyman ever point out that, in each series in which they were supposedly psyched out, the Twins faced a demonstrably better club in the Yankees. In fact, quite the opposite. Heyman writes, "How else to explain four wipeouts in the ALDS since 2003, two in three games and two in four, generally following seasons where both teams won fairly similar numbers of regular-season games?" Really John?<br />
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<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr><td><strong>Year</strong></td><td><strong>Twins Wins</strong></td><td><strong>Yankees Wins</strong></td></tr>
<tr><td>2003</td><td>90</td><td>101</td></tr>
<tr><td>2004</td><td>92</td><td>101</td></tr>
<tr><td>2009</td><td>87</td><td>103</td></tr>
<tr><td>2010</td><td>94</td><td>95</td></tr>
</tbody></table><br />
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Now, team wins is a dumb way to determine which is the better team, as it doesn't account for strength of schedule, and the Yankees have always had more of a gauntlet than the Twins. But come on. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTJpLBXGBkM">COME ON!</a> How can anyone look at that and think the quality of the teams was at all similar? <br />
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Torii Hunter owes Lew Ford an apology for throwing him under the bus and either lying or being completely wrong about the details of his story. And so does Jon Heyman, who is a reporter and should know that he needs to check his facts in every damn story. Do better, Jon. This reeks, and it's your second day in a row reporting misinformation.The Common Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09994070642805307798noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-37450365627842796922012-03-23T10:26:00.000-05:002012-03-23T10:26:27.043-05:00The Meddler<div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://shutouts.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/ichiro-topps-2008.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img aea="true" border="0" height="320px" src="http://shutouts.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/ichiro-topps-2008.jpg" width="228px" /></a></div><strong>By The Common Man</strong><br />
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It’s not exactly a <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/17974682/if-mariners-know-whats-good-for-them-this-should-be-ichiros-last-year">hatchet job that Jon Heyman did on Ichiro Suzuki yesterday</a>, but it’s close. At least Heyman’s clear that Ichiro works hard and prepares himself well. But other than that, whoo boy. It’s an article that goes out of its way to essentially call Ichiro a meddling prima donna who maneuvers behind the scenes to get coaches reassigned, players he wants inked, and blows off reporters before games (guess which one is probably the reason Heyman wrote this column). However, to make his case that Ichiro is the great Seattle puppet master, Heyman has to stretch and distort facts wildly to fit his narrative, use remarkably vague unnamed sources, and dredge up something that may have been an issue years ago but, by Heyman’s own admission, isn’t a current problem. <br />
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Heyman writes that “Ichiro’s ‘absurd’ influence [over Mariners owner Hiroshi Yamauchi] was either unknown, underestimated, or deemed unimportant when Mariners longtime stars Ken Griffey Jr. and Jay Buhner were on the team.” Yet, Griffey was long gone by the time Ichiro debuted in 2001, and Buhner sat out most of the season before coming back and playing 19 games in September. How much influence could these “longtime stars” have had that kept Ichiro in check or allowed him to machinate unnoticed when neither was in the clubhouse? Sure, Griffey came back in 2009 and 2010 for a farewell tour with the Mariners, but that would mean that Ichiro’s influence or lack thereof has been a non-factor for the last three seasons. And if that’s the case, then why is this an issue even worth dredging up?<br />
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Heyman also criticizes Ichiro because he “pushed for the signing and eventual extension [sic] of Kenji Jojima [sic], who it turned out wasn’t very good, and several more personnel preferences…. Ichiro turned out to be a far better player than he was baseball scout.” Now, Heyman doesn’t give us any other names, but it’s hard to see how the acquisition of Johjima could possibly be a strike against Ichiro. Johjima was signed to a three year, $16.5 million contract in 2006. According to Baseball Prospectus, Johjima was worth 3.0 and 2.4 WARP respectively in 2006 and 2007, and Fangraphs figures his performance was worth around $21.5 million. <br />
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Now, Johjima did fall apart in 2008, after he had signed a three-year, $24 million extension and had more than earned the money paid to him in the original three year deal. And while the extension turned out to be ill-advised, Johjima opted out of his contract after an embarrassing and injury-plagued 2009 and returned to Japan, forgoing another $16 million or so, which greatly limited the damage to Seattle. It’s hard to blame Ichiro for that, isn’t it? Especially since he was right about Johjima’s talents and apparently about his character (given that he was willing to return money he didn’t think he would earn). Perhaps even a cursory examination of Johjima’s Baseball Reference page to confirm the correct spelling of his name might have helped Heyman gain some informed perspective.<br />
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Heyman seems to be relying a great deal on his unnamed source, a “former Mariners person.” Who is this masked man (or woman)? A front office type? Coach? Manager? Player? Peanut vendor? Security guard? Super fan? What, exactly, is a “Mariners person?” If Heyman wants us to believe his contention that Ichiro is the man behind the curtain, especially when he’s tossing around such flimsy, disprovable evidence like that above, he needs to be more clear about why we should trust this unnamed, undefined, unimpressive anonymous source. And based on the lack of actual true facts backing up these accusations, this post reeks of not actually being worth the bandwidth it takes up.<br />
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That’s not to say there isn’t a kernel of truth in Heyman’s post. Ichiro’s contract is up at the end of 2012, and the Mariners would be foolish to give him a lavish extension. That said, the M’s would also be fools to simply divest themselves of Ichiro when he has significantly increased the value of the Mariners brand at home and abroad. It’s said, rightly, that fans root for laundry, not players. For the most part, that’s true. Except when it comes to Ichiro and the Japanese people. And for the M’s to simply forgo the additional revenue they get from Japan due to his huge following would seem to be a miscalculation. The M’s and Ichiro have been tied together now for twelve seasons, and both have benefitted from that. And if a mutually agreeable contract can be worked out, The Common Man bets that they’ll continue to do benefit from each other into the future. That seems far more concrete than Heyman’s tale of the man-behind-the-man-who-wears-the-crown.The Common Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09994070642805307798noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-42776149337160183102012-03-22T13:13:00.010-05:002012-03-22T14:42:14.316-05:00Negro League Database Diving<div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4d7uS1lW8_Q4s2WQdOqVpo8NYvp5N0NYmDkCPy6ipt7cGSE_sZPBigDE34ByXWLqhG9hjxN4yqIxglrqjy8tthYUF94sudq2BNwVzo9OMXJFkqezBvmhR0yy44DXA93RIXPX1bgpSI7VV/s400/HOF+-+Rogan,+Bullet.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img aea="true" border="0" height="320px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4d7uS1lW8_Q4s2WQdOqVpo8NYvp5N0NYmDkCPy6ipt7cGSE_sZPBigDE34ByXWLqhG9hjxN4yqIxglrqjy8tthYUF94sudq2BNwVzo9OMXJFkqezBvmhR0yy44DXA93RIXPX1bgpSI7VV/s320/HOF+-+Rogan,+Bullet.jpg" width="223px" /></a></div>
<strong>By The Common Man (with an assist from Bill)</strong><br />
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This morning, Baseball Reference dropped a bombshell when they went live with their <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/nlb/">Negro League database</a> that covers 1903-1948. This represents the most complete public airing of Negro League statistics that we’ve ever seen, and baseball fans everywhere should be incredibly grateful to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, <a href="http://seamheads.com/">Seamheads.com</a>, Sean Forman and his Baseball Reference team for making these publicly available. What a treasure trove of data.<br />
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Previously, we’ve had to rely on incredibly incomplete data and oral histories (much of which have been wonderful to read and hear, though they are highly subjective) to try and understand the black game in the age of segregation. This shines a beacon on a terrifically understudied and little understood part of baseball’s history.<br />
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The Common Man and Bill spent much of the morning combing through the stats and passing little treasures back and forth. We have a lot more to do to get a more complete picture of the database, but here are our ten favorite things we learned this morning:<br />
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<strong>#10 <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/nlb/leader.cgi?type=bat&year=1923">The first player to hit 20 homers</a> in a Negro League season was either <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/nlb/player.cgi?id=johnso002hea">Heavy Johnson</a> or <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/nlb/player.cgi?id=taylor000can">Candy Jim Taylor</a> in 1923.</strong> <br />
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Johnson was a star who got a late start in organized ball, after spending much of World War I in Hawaii playing for the 25th Infantry Wreckers with Bullet Joe Rogan. In his first full season, he hit .390/.406/.720 in 226 plate appearances. The next year, he topped that, hitting .405/.460/.717 with the aforementioned 20 homers in 426 plate appearances. He continued to star for another 5 seasons in the league, though he’d never hit more than 5 homers in a season ever again.<br />
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Taylor was 36 before the Negro National League was founded in 1920, but had played professionally since he was 19. Taylor had little success in his first go arounds in the league in 1920 and 1922. But in ’23, at 39 years old, Candy Jim’s bat was extra sweet. In just 244 plate appearances, he also hit 20 homers with a .372/.438/.712 line. He would hit just four other homers in the rest of his career, but went on to be a successful manager of the St. Louis Stars, Richmond All-Stars, and Homestead Grays.<br />
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<strong>#9 <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/nlb/player.cgi?id=bell--001coo">Cool Papa Bell</a> didn’t steal many bases.</strong><br />
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That’s probably not an accurate statement. Bell probably stole a lot of bases that simply weren’t counted for one reason or another. There are definite holes still in the data, and the <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/nlb.shtml">research teams are working to fill them</a>. What we know is that he’s credited with 132 steals in 21 seasons, but that just doesn’t seem credible. We also see a season where he’s not credited with a single walk in 275 PAs. That’s probably a missing data too. As it is, at .316/.363/.420, he seems far more like the Lou Brock of the Negro Leagues (albeit a Lou Brock who is an excellent defender in center field, by all accounts) than Tim Raines or Rickey Henderson.<br />
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<strong>#8 <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/nlb/league.cgi?year=1943">The Homestead Grays</a> really didn’t like to walk.</strong><br />
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Speaking of holes in the data, as Bill pointed out to me, according to the stats we have available the Grays walked one time in more than 1900 plate appearances. The lone walk was credited to Josh Gibson, which raised his OBP from his .486 batting average all the way to a .489 OBP. This lax record keeping did not carry over to the pitching side, where Grays pitchers were hung with 198 BB in 636.2 innings. It’s a bummer, because it would be nice to see where all those walks went. But this is one of the major problems when you’re reconstructing stats from box scores and incomplete records.<br />
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<strong>#7 <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/nlb/player.cgi?id=gibson002jos">Josh Gibson</a> was a freaking god.</strong><br />
<br />
We already knew this, yes. But we didn’t really have much beyond first-hand accounts to go on. But look, for instance, at Gibson’s 1936, when he hit .451/.526/.756. Or 1937, when he hit .392/.422/.907. Or even his .365/.500/.865 1939 campaign. Or maybe you’d prefer183 plate appearances of .486/.489/.862 (remember, that OBP is way low) in 1943. For his Negro League career, Gibson is credited as hitting .359/.413/.644 as a catcher in 13 seasons, before dying at 35 before the 1947 season. The highest MLB OPS by a catcher with more than 1500 career plate appearances is Mike Piazza’s .992. Gibson beats that by more than 60 points, and that’s with at least an entire season's worth of walks not counted in Josh’s final record.<br />
<br />
<strong>#6 <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/nlb/player.cgi?id=paige-001ler">Satchel Paige</a> was too.</strong><br />
<br />
Another of the giants of the Negro Leagues, Satchel Paige, doesn’t look so great at first glance. His 1922 season, for instance, saw him allow 4.55 runs per 9 innings for the Birmingham Black Barons. And his RA ranged pretty consistently between 3.00-4.00. But look closer. Consider, for one thing, that Paige was working with bad fields in what was a high offensive era in the MLB history. And while it’s hard to see without a RA available on team pages, he looks to have consistently been the best pitcher on his own teams. Finally, consider his strikeout rate. As Bill pointed out this morning, he’s credited with striking out over eight batters per nine innings for his Negro League career. Meanwhile, in Paige’s prime from 1920-1936, when he struck out 8.1 batters per 9 innings, the Major League average for K/9 was around 3.3, and the highest mark of any Major League pitcher was Dazzy Vance’s 7.6 K/9 in 1924. In other words, Paige struck out almost three times as many batters as Major League pitchers on average, and K’ed more on average than any Major League pitcher could do at his best. That’s remarkable.<br />
<br />
<strong>#5 There was a huge talent gap between the best and worst players in the Negro Leagues.</strong><br />
<br />
This is probably something we should have expected, especially in the early days of the Negro National League. There were huge stars, but there were also incredibly bad players. It’s similar to how the National Association was in 1871, or the National League in 1876, or the American League in 1901, or the Federal League in 1914. Some black players were slow to jump to the league, waiting to see how it fared before leaving secure jobs elsewhere. So we get players like <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/nlb/player.cgi?id=demoss000bin">Bingo DeMoss</a>, a second baseman who played regularly from 1920-1928 and had a career .235/.296/.285 batting line, which would be the 42nd worst OPS of all time among players since 1900 with more than 2000 plate appearances. His .371 OPS in 1922 (he “hit” .149/.203/.168) would be tied for 9th worst since 1900 among players with more than 175 PAs, and he kept his job for six more seasons. (By the way, four of the seasons worse than Bingo’s belong to the immortal Bill Bergen.) <br />
<br />
<strong>#4 <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/nlb/player.cgi?id=lloyd-001pop">Pop Lloyd</a> was an ageless wonder.</strong><br />
<br />
Bill found this out and it’s amazing. From 1924-1929, his ages 40-45 seasons, Pop Lloyd hit .358, which is 14 points higher than his career batting average. And he wasn’t playing sparsely either. He was in the top 20 in the league for plate appearances in 1929, and was 7th in the league in batting average (.370), 5th in OBP (.430), and 8th in slugging percentage (.541). After that, he spent three more seasons traveling around and barnstroming, hitting .369/.409/.431 at 46 years old and .400/.438/.600 in 16 plate appearances as a 48 year old. He seems to have stopped playing after that, perhaps after ascending to heaven in a chariot of fire.<br />
<br />
<strong>#3 We don’t know nearly enough about these players.</strong> <br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/nlb/player.cgi?id=smith-048cha">Charles Smith</a> was a mighty outfielder that Satchel Paige called one of the two best hitters in the Negro Leagues (probably after Gibson). He packed a wallop in 1927 and 1928 but barely played for Brooklyn the Eastern Colored League (he may have been barnstorming, or playing elsewhere for most of those seasons). In 1929, however, he settled in with the New York Lincoln Giants for the full season, and hit .465/.538/.994 with 19 homers in the American Negro League as a 28 year old. He never played in the Negro Major Leagues again. Instead, he barnstormed and hit .429/.531/.701. Playing in Cuba in 1932, however, he caught yellow fever, and died. But what did he do in 1931? Where did he play? How did he do? What was he doing during those years when he could have been playing the Negro Leagues, but apparently chose not to? Lost.<br />
<br />
<strong>#2 There are probably still more Hall of Famers we could cull from this data.</strong><br />
<br />
This is the first time either of us have heard of <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/nlb/player.cgi?id=scales000geo">Tubby Scales</a>, a second baseman who played 19 seasons in the official Negro Leagues, and barnstormed with independent black ballclubs in several others. In 1923, a 22 year old Scales hit .408 to win the Negro League batting title, besting Heavy Johnson, Cristobal Torriente, Oscar Charleston, Bullet Joe Rogan, and Turkey Stearnes. For his career, he’s credited with hitting .316/.386/.510 in 1838 plate appearances (numbers brought down significantly by his final 5 years in Baltimore when he was between 41 and 45 years old). Plus, he must have been similarly successful as he toured the country. His .896 career OPS would rank 2nd among all 2B since 1900 with more than 1800 plate appearances, behind only Rogers Hornsby.<br />
<br />
<strong>#1 The greatest season in baseball history might just belong to <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/nlb/player.cgi?id=rogan-001bul">Bullet Joe Rogan</a>.</strong><br />
<br />
Rogan is an incredibly deserving Hall of Famer, who won 117 games from 1920-1928 and had a career RA of 3.66. While probably not a better pitcher than Satchel, Rogan was a much better hitter, raking at a .343/.395/.522 for his career. Indeed, in 1929, unable to pitch anymore, he still played regularly in the outfield, getting 312 plate appearances and hitting .356/.443/.564 (his 1.007 OPS was 7th in the league). But his best season, and perhaps the greatest season in baseball history, was undoubtedly 1925. Rogan won 17 games (and lost only 2) for the Kansas City Monarchs, allowing just 2.31 runs per game in 171.1 innings (which seems to be a really low mark, from what we've seen). He completed 17 of his 18 starts, and had 5 shutouts. He also came to bat 160 times over the course of the season and hit .381/.442/.590 with 7 doubles, 8 triples, 2 homers, and 5 stolen bases. It looks like the Monarchs played between 85 and 90 games that season, to give you an idea of how his numbers might look extrapolated over a full year. <br />
<br />
--------------------------------------------------------------------<br />
<br />
And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. The Common Man and Bill can’t wait to dig through these records more, and hope against hope that more data will come to light that will paint an even more detailed picture for historians and fans who are interested. And from the bottom of our cold, black hearts, we want to say thanks to everyone involved.The Common Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09994070642805307798noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-43404029611829123172012-03-21T10:00:00.000-05:002012-03-21T10:00:12.941-05:00The Path to Respectability: Houston Astros<p><strong>by Jason Wojciechowski</strong></p>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;
margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0"
src="http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3621/3358705476_84015ed675.jpg" width="350"
/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">They're cooked<br />
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/rikomatic/3358705476/">Photo by Rik
Panganiban</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>Midway through this self-assignment to figure out how each of the crummy MLB
teams could be respectable and win 88 games, I've come to my hardest test: the Houston
Astros. The Astros aren't a team with a ton of young talent that projection systems don't
like but everyone thinks could be good in two years. (They're not the Royals, that is.)
They're just a really bad team.</p>
<p>PECOTA sees the Astros having the worst offense in the National League, and it's
not even close. Their .243 projected team True Average is nine points below the next
contender, the Pirates. For context, if you had two players with those TAvs (you'd have
two crap players, but that's an aside), over the course of a season (650 PAs), the Pirates'
player would be worth 6.5 more runs than the Astros' guy. A team, of course, amasses a
lot more than 650 PAs in a season.</p>
<p>On top of the offense, PECOTA sees the team allowing, through a combination of bad
defense and weak pitching, more runs than anyone else in the National League.
Including Colorado. Who play on the moon.</p>
<p>But hey! The team has a new owner who's hired a new, more progressive front office.
So hope is rising. Is there any hope for this year? Let's get this team to 88 wins.</p>
<p>PECOTA and the <em>BP</em> depth charts have the team at 60-102 (another
aside: it's astounding that a team can be <em>projected</em> to over 100 wins), so we
need to find 28 wins. As always, I'll lop five wins off of that figure due to good run
distribution luck, leaving me needing "only" 23 on the roster itself. Unlike with other
teams, there's no picking and choosing here. I'm going to need help from every single
player and position.</p>
<a name='more'></a>
<p>First, at catcher, we have <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/castrja01.shtml">Jason Castro</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snydech02.shtml">Chris Snyder</a></strong>. We could let Snyder start,
since he's a better hitter than Castro, but I have a more fun idea: let's suppose that Jason
Castro is one of those catchers who actually has a large effect on his pitching staff
through pitch-calling, framing, blocking balls, and so forth. The little things, in other words,
that until the last year or so, stat-heads, at least in public, have had trouble tracking.
We've seen some advances in those areas recently, though, so maybe when we get to
the end of the year, we'll find that Castro has shaved ten runs off his pitching staff's totals
through all of that activity. That's one win. (For what it's worth, Castro is a Stanford
alumnus with a reputation for being a good defensive player, so this isn't entirely
implausible.)</p>
<p>Castro can't hit a lick (.243 projected TAv), but he's young enough (25) to learn, so if
he can get himself to a little bit above league average, all the way to a .265 TAv, he can
add another win with the bat.</p>
<p>At first base, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leeca01.shtml">Carlos Lee</a></strong> is 36 years old, but he has a career on-base average of
about .340. PECOTA figures him for .326, which, while not unfair (like I said, he's 36), is
uncharitable. This, with this solid slugging, works out to a .274 TAv. I need Lee to instead
hit .298 (not so far above what he hit last season) and be worth five runs with his glove.
(He could instead hit for a .310 TAv and be worth zero with the glove, but I tried to decide
which was more reasonable. Yes, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leeca01.shtml">Carlos Lee</a></strong> providing positive value with the leather
struck me as the more reasonable option. First base isn't <em>that</em> hard!) This adds
about 15 runs with the bat and five more with the glove for a two-win improvement. (If he
really hit like this, I don't think <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wallabr01.shtml">Brett Wallace</a></strong> would see 25% of the first-base time, but I
don't want to futz with that. Pretend Lee gets hurt from trying so hard and Wallace finishes
out the last six weeks of the season at first.)</p>
<p>At second base, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/altuvjo01.shtml">Jose Altuve</a></strong> is the mightiest of all the tiny men in baseball. (He would
be even if <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eckstda01.shtml">David Eckstein</a></strong> were still around.) Still, PECOTA has him with a TAv of just
.242, leading to 0.7 WARP. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect him to hit his 80th
percentile PECOTA forecast, though, and manage a .300/.332/.416 line. The dude is
short, but he <em>destroyed</em> High-A and AA last year. There's no real pressure on
the guy, so why not? This would add a win.</p>
<p>At third, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/paredji01.shtml">Jimmy Paredes</a></strong> is terrible. PECOTA has him worth a full win
<em>below</em> replacement, premised mostly on a .270 OBP, in 65% of the third base
time. Rather than rescue his performance, I'll instead kick Paredes down to AAA and
have <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/downsma01.shtml">Matt Downs</a></strong> play every day. Downs at least has a projected slash line of
.252/.316/.408. This comes out to league-average production. If he's the every-day third
baseman and adds just five runs to his batting, when combined with removing Paredes
from harm's way, the overall increase on the balance sheet is two wins, one for Paredes,
half for Downs's bat, and half for Downs's playing time.</p>
<p>(Downs is slated to contribute at second base and right field as well, but with Altuve
hitting at second and, as you'll see, a contributor coming forward in right, he won't be
needed at those spots any longer. This should take care of any playing-time shuffle
issues you're worried about.)</p>
<p>Lastly for the infield, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lowrije01.shtml">Jed Lowrie</a></strong> was a savvy pickup by new General Manager Jeff
Luhnow from the Red Sox, who wanted <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/melanma01.shtml">Mark Melancon</a></strong> for their bullpen. Lowrie has
shown flashes of crushing the ball, but he's also only shown flashes of staying healthy. If
he can get to 600 PAs this year instead of the 500 he's getting on the depth chart while
posting a TAv of about .280 (not quite his 80th percentile -- that's reachable! Plus, he
smashed a .319 TAv in 197 great PAs for Boston in 2010), he can add a win and a half to
what's currently being expected from shortstop. (When you factor in a playing-time
reduction for Marwin Gonzalez, who's basically a replacement-level performer.)</p>
<p>The outfield starts with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd01.shtml">J.D. Martin</a></strong>ez, the team's third-best hitter, in left. PECOTA has
him hitting almost exactly what he hit last season (.321 OBP and .424 SLG vs. .319 and
.423), but we can put some faith in the demolishings Martinez put on A-ball and AA the
last two years and ask him to hit his 70th percentile projection instead: basically
.290/.340/.450. That's an eminently reasonable sort of outfielder, a nice league-average
kind of guy, and one who's worth half a win more than the depth chart is currently
counting on.</p>
<p>In center, Houston has more of a project. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schafjo02.shtml">Jordan Schafer</a></strong> was a prospect once upon a
time, but an HGH suspension and subsequent regression (don't start with me) have
resulted in a player who struggles to keep the bat from getting knocked out of his hands.
His career on-base percentage is higher than his career slugging. On the other hand, part
of the reason for that is a nice walk rate (55 in 532 PAs) and he's flashed some useful
speed (24/29 steals despite just 162 hits + walks + HBP (note that this omits ROE and
FC)). Combine that with a once-upon-a-time top-prospect profile that came with a good
defensive reputation and you've got a recipe for a guy who could be worth 1.5 more wins
than the negative 0.4 he's projected for via some combination of his glove and bat. Just
hitting .242/.310/.331, hardly stellar numbers, while being +10 in center field would get
the job done. Alternatively he could hit something like .255/.330/.350, which is perhaps a
taller order, while saving five runs with the leather. Slice it how you like. This team needs
Schafer, though thankfully it doesn't need him to perform like a top prospect. It just needs
him to be worthy of saying "meh" rather than cringing in horror.</p>
<p>Right field is kind of an unholy mess. The <em>BP</em> depth chart has no fewer
than five players getting time out there, but all to no good effect: the total WARP for those
players as right-fielders comes out to something like 0.6. That's not pretty. The solution is
obvious, at least to someone with my leanings: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/custja01.shtml">Jack Cust</a></strong>! He's the best hitter on the team
(on-base percentage is king), so asking him to seize the position and run with it for 600
PAs, defense and all, is just asking <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Brad+Mills">Brad Mills</a></strong> to recognize game. Now, Cust could hit as
PECOTA figures him to (.234/.366/.426), which would be useful, but this team needs
more than useful to get to respectability, so I'm going to kick him from a .287 TAv to a .302
TAv (still worse than three of his four seasons in Oakland, for what it's worth) and add two
wins to the right-field total.</p>
<p>With the position players finally taken care of, it's time to talk about pitching. Everyone
knows <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodriwa01.shtml">Wandy Rodriguez</a></strong>, but it's easy to forget (I could be projecting) that he's already
33, so it might be too late to ask for another three-win season. Still, the 1.4 WARP
PECOTA can be bumped up without raising too many eyebrows -- the 1.9 he put up last
season in 191 innings looks entirely reachable, and his Fair Run Average hasn't moved
more than 0.10 in three years, so we'll pencil him in for 1.9 again, a half-win improvement
for Houston.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernali01.shtml">Livan Hernandez</a></strong>, who I did not remember Houston signing, has a most perplexing
projection. Granted that the man is ancient and has been surviving on slop and magic
spells for years now, a below-replacement PECOTA when his last three season WARPs
have gone 1.8, 3.0, 2.2 is almost aggressively mean-spirited. I don't think it's too much at
all, even in front of Houston's defense (check the BABIP projections for the Houston
pitching staff), to ask that Hernandez put up 1.0 WARP in 180 innings. That modest
production is a 1.5-win increase for the squad.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/norribu01.shtml">Bud Norris</a></strong> is a pretty poor excuse for a top home-grown pitcher, but he is what the
Astros have, and he's serviceable. PECOTA says 0.6 WARP in 168 innings, but I think a
modest goal for the stout righty is a repeat of his 2010 season, in which he posted 1.1
WARP. He actually did that in 15 fewer innings than <em>BP</em> has him throwing, so
the quality of his 2012 need not be as good (where "good" means "mediocre") as he
showed two years ago. Given that he threw even better in 2011 and that he's only 27, this
might be the most reasonable request on the whole list.</p>
<p>In the fourth starter position is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/happja01.shtml">J.A. Happ</a></strong>, a barely above replacement lefty who came
to Houston in the <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oswalro01.shtml">Roy Oswalt</a></strong> trade with the Phillies. PECOTA says 0.4 WARP on the
basis of a 4.5 ERA and too many homers and walks. I say that this is the year for the 29-
year-old to find himself through the power of meditation and reach his 90th percentile
projection. That'll be worth 0.8 more wins for Houston. (The non-roundness of this
number is unfortunate, but it'll work out.)</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lylesjo01.shtml">Jordan Lyles</a></strong> is an incredibly young (didn't turn 21 until after last season) starter, but
it's not entirely clear that he's ready. He was about league-average in AAA, which is
pretty good for a 20-year-old, but his replacement-level showing in 94 innings at the
major-league level showed did not inspire a lot of confidence. PECOTA doesn't see him
moving past that easily, so it's going to require yet another 90th percentile performance,
an ERA in the low-fours in 180 innings, to add a win of value to his present expected
figure.</p>
<p>Finally, there's the bullpen, which has more negative numbers than I've even seen on
one depth chart before. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/myersbr01.shtml">Brett Myers</a></strong> is a solid pitcher, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lyonbr01.shtml">Brandon Lyon</a></strong> is pretty good.
<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lopezwi01.shtml">Wilton Lopez</a></strong> rates at replacement level. Everyone else, literally everyone,
<em>eight</em> pitchers, come out in negative value territory. Three quick fixes for the
bullpen, then:</p>
<ol>
<li>
<p>the eight negative value guys average 0.1 WARP apiece. This transforms a unit that
is projected to be worth -1.4 WARP into one that's worth 0.8. The 2.2-win upgrade will go
a long way for the Astros, and it's feasible. If <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escalse01.shtml">Sergio Escalona</a></strong> can't hack it, don't let him
pitch -- have someone else pick up 0.2 WARP for the both of them.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lyonbr01.shtml">Brandon Lyon</a></strong> needs to throw twenty more innings -- he's projected for 46, but he's
the best reliever the Astros have, so he's got to take the ball. This should add about 0.2
WARP.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/myersbr01.shtml">Brett Myers</a></strong> has to pitch like he did the last time he was a closer, 2007, when he was
worth 1.5 WARP in nearly 70 innings (though 15 of that came in three starts) on the
strength of the best FRA of his career. Throwing those 70 innings again and throwing
them as well as he did back then would give the Astros the last 1.3 WARP they need to
hit the magic number of 88.</p>
</li>
</ol>
<p>(Much of the above comes with some implicit or explicit playing-time increases that
cut away some of the chaff: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schafjo02.shtml">Jordan Schafer's</a></strong> emergence saves 0.3 wins via less playing
time for <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/shuckja01.shtml">J.B. Shuck</a></strong>; all of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sosahe01.shtml">Henry Sosa's</a></strong> -0.4 WARP performance disappears due to Livan
Hernandez and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/happja01.shtml">J.A. Happ</a></strong>; the same for <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dukeza01.shtml">Zach Duke</a></strong>, victimized by <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodriwa01.shtml">Wandy Rodriguez</a></strong> and
<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lylesjo01.shtml">Jordan Lyles</a></strong>.)</p>
<p>This is going to be the biggest summing up you've ever seen, but here goes
anyway:</p>
<p>+2.0 (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/castrja01.shtml">Jason Castro</a></strong> hits and fields)<br />
+2.0 (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leeca01.shtml">Carlos Lee</a></strong> renaissance)<br />
+1.0 (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/altuvjo01.shtml">Jose Altuve</a></strong> hits like his minor league performances say he can)<br />
+2.0 (Paredes out at third, Downs in, and Downs hits)<br />
+1.5 (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lowrije01.shtml">Jed Lowrie</a></strong> beasts, stays healthy)<br />
+0.5 (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd01.shtml">J.D. Martin</a></strong>ez hits average instead of mediocre)<br />
+1.5 (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schafjo02.shtml">Jordan Schafer</a></strong> gets some swagger back)
+2.0 (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/custja01.shtml">Jack Cust</a></strong> is a boss, owns right field)<br />
+0.5 (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodriwa01.shtml">Wandy Rodriguez</a></strong> slows the decline)<br />
+1.5 (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernali01.shtml">Livan Hernandez</a></strong> is ageless)<br />
+0.5 (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/norribu01.shtml">Bud Norris</a></strong> reaches modest goals)<br />
+0.8 (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/happja01.shtml">J.A. Happ</a></strong> meditates, gets good)<br />
+1.0 (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lylesjo01.shtml">Jordan Lyles</a></strong> consolidates, pitches well instead of just young)<br />
+2.2 (entire bullpen is ok instead of being absurdly bad)<br />
+0.2 (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lyonbr01.shtml">Brandon Lyon</a></strong> stays healthy, pitches a fair amount)<br />
+1.3 (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/myersbr01.shtml">Brett Myers</a></strong> reprises 2007)<br />
+1.1 (playing time reductions for Shuck, Sosa, Duke)<br />
+5.0 (run distribution luck)<br />
====<br />
+27.1</p>
<p>That's only 87 wins. I did something wrong. I'm pretty sure I had 88. I refuse to fret
about this. It's the Astros, and I did my best. They're profoundly not respectable.</p>Jason Wojciechowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16935366214824790506noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-59040530054855840442012-03-20T10:00:00.000-05:002012-03-20T10:00:01.684-05:00The Path to Respectability: Oakland A's<p><strong>by Jason Wojciechowski</strong></p>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;
margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0"
src="http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3003/2956755833_2cb6e6048a.jpg" width="350"
/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">It’s a port<br />
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/danramarch/2956755833/">Photo by Daniel
Ramirez</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>Having knocked out the Seattle Mariners yesterday, today sees my attempt to get the
other half of the bottom-feeding portion of the A.L. West up to 88 wins and respectability.
As you know, <a href="http://beaneball.org">I'm an A's blogger</a>, but I'm honestly not
sure whether that helps or hurts this exercise. It's very likely that previous posts in this
series have been unreasonably optimistic about some player or some event occurring
such that fans of the team are silently laughing at me. Here, I'm more likely to silently
laugh at myself.</p>
<p>Anyway, the baseline. PECOTA and the <em>Baseball Prospectus</em> depth
charts currently have the A's finishing third in the West at 73-89, ahead of the Mariners
but not even in hailing distance of the two division leaders. They feature an offense full of
guys who project to be within a respectable distance of average, one star hitter who will
be suspended for the first fifty games of the year, and one well-above-average guy who's
never played in America. The pitching, by contrast, and contrary to what you've come to
expect from the A's, looks poor. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccarbr01.shtml">Brandon McCarthy</a></strong> is good, but behind him, there's
nobody you can count on for 200 innings of solid baseball.</p>
<p>As always, I start the A's off with five wins of luck, pushing their record, before
changes to the roster and individual players' expectations, to 78-84. I need to find ten
wins.</p>
<a name='more'></a>
<p>The pitching is the easy place to start because of how poor the projections are. First,
<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colonba01.shtml">Bartolo Colon</a></strong>. PECOTA sees him as a mid-four ERA guy, which in Oakland is nothing
special. Additionally, the depth chart only counts on him, at 39 and coming off a 164-
inning stunning comeback with the Yankees, to pitch 144 frames. All of this adds up to
just 0.3 WARP. He had 2.2 last year, but he doesn't need to replicate all that -- if he can
split the difference and post 1.3 WARP, he'll more than earn his $2 million salary and add
a win to the ledger for Oakland.</p>
<p>Next is rookie Tommy Milone, a soft-tossing lefty who came to Oakland from
Washington and, while being the closest to the majors of the bevy of prospects the A's got
for <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzagi01.shtml">Gio Gonzalez</a></strong>, is also the one with the lowest ceiling. Still, 0.7 WARP in 122 innings
seems ungenerous. Based on his innings counts and number of games started in the
minors, it appears that he's been healthy coming up, so I think he can ask him for 180
innings instead of 120. Even without a quality increase, that pushes his WARP total to
about 1.0. It also wipes the need for Sonny Gray to start for Oakland (Gray is projected for
40 innings and 0 WARP) and takes 20 innings away from <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peacobr01.shtml">Brad Peacock</a></strong> or <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parkeja02.shtml">Jarrod Parker</a></strong>,
neither of whom PECOTA is at all a fan of, projecting below-replacement performance
from each. Take the innings from Peacock (the lesser of the two) and round a little and
you've basically got an 0.5 WARP improvement from Tommy Milone taking the ball all
season instead of just 2/3 of it.</p>
<p>Finally, using my flip-a-coin methodology, I think the A's can squeeze two extra wins
out of the rotation by asking for one of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rossty01.shtml">Tyson Ross</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peacobr01.shtml">Brad Peacock</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parkeja02.shtml">Jarrod Parker</a></strong>, or
<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/godfrgr01.shtml">Graham Godfrey</a></strong> to seize the day and really pitch their way into a solid season. I'm
basically counting this as +1 WARP of performance by whichever pitcher decides to be
the hero and the removal of -1 WARP from the books as the below-replacement
performances currently on it become unnecessary. If <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rossty01.shtml">Tyson Ross</a></strong> throws 180 innings of
good baseball, then there's simply no room for <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peacobr01.shtml">Brad Peacock</a></strong> to throw 100 innings of -0.5
WARP. Given the amount of talent on hand (two of the four are highly regarded, and Ross
at least has a live arm; Godfrey is just a guy, though), this kind of performance from
<em>someone</em> seems reasonable.</p>
<p>Out in the bullpen, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/godfrgr01.shtml">Graham Godfrey</a></strong> is currently listed as the long reliever and Jordan
Norberto does not appear on the depth chart. Norberto probably isn't very good, but the
lefty has a big arm, so he's the type of bullpen pitcher you can dream on. He also spent
the winter as a starter, so the A's could count on him to be a long reliever. If he fills that
role instead of Godfrey and fills it well, putting up +0.2 WARP instead of -0.3, then the A's
pick up half a win from the 50 innings their worst bullpen pitcher will be asked to
throw.</p>
<p>Moving to the lineup, the major problem area is first base. Right now, it's a mishmash
of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bartoda02.shtml">Daric Barton</a></strong> (50% of the playing time, 0.9 WARP), <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/allenbr01.shtml">Brandon Allen</a></strong> (30%, 0.4), and
<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Chris+Carter">Chris Carter</a></strong> (20%, 0.2). Multiply those out and none of the three comes out to an average
full-time player, who'd be expected to provide two wins above replacement. (Kila
Ka'aihue doesn't appear on the depth chart, but I wouldn't expect him to have much
impact on the season.) I have beautiful thoughts about <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Chris+Carter">Chris Carter</a></strong>, though. I see a big-
time power hitter who makes enough contact to keep his average (and thus his on-base
percentage) reasonable. I also see someone who can't play a lick of defense, but in this
optimistic scenario, he learns. The A's are projected to get 1.5 WARP out of first base, but
I think Carter can put a stranglehold on the position after he anger-mashes PCL pitching
and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/allenbr01.shtml">Brandon Allen</a></strong> gets hurts. Carter puts up 2.5 WARP all by himself in basically 100%
of the play time, and the A's net one win.</p>
<p>In right field, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml">Josh Reddick</a></strong> is expected to be the man. He's got a WWE championship
belt, he's got some fans among those who follow prospects, and he's got a full-time job
with very little worry that someone will steal it from him. I think he can far out-hit his
.248/.301/.414 projection and provide something more like his 80th percentile mark:
.270/.325/.455. Hitting like that (and bumping his playing time a bit at the expense of
<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cowgico01.shtml">Collin Cowgill</a></strong>) nets out to about a one-win improvement over his current 1.7 WARP
projection.</p>
<p>Back to the infield, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weeksje01.shtml">Jemile Weeks</a></strong> had a smashing debut, racking up 3.1 WARP in
fewer than 100 games on the back of a .303/.340/.421 line powered by singles, doubles,
and triples. In almost all the second-base playing time for 2012, though, PECOTA sees a
step back to 2.1 WARP. That's nothing to complain about for the A's -- a league-average
player for the price they're paying, and an exciting, crowd-pleasing one at that, is awfully
nice. Still, the A's can do better. Weeks produced at basically a five-WARP pace last
year, which is too thrilling for words. If we knock that down a bit because it's really hard to
hit .300 in Oakland, we can still ask for a four-win year from the young keystoner, which is
a two-win improvement over his depth-chart figure.</p>
<p>Weeks's double-play partner, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pennicl01.shtml">Cliff Pennington</a></strong>, posted a five-WARP season of his
own in 2010, with good-for-his-position hitting, a tremendous +13 fielding score, and even
+4 runs on the bases, helped along greatly by a 29/34 stealing performance.
Pennington's hitting numbers were eerily similar in 2011 (same OBP, one point difference
in SLG), but True Average treated those performances much differently in its adjustments
for park and league. He dropped to -12 runs in the field. He even went negative on the
bases, not at all helped by going just 14/23 stealing. It was a crummy year, and it
summed to just 1.0 WARP in nearly the full season of shortstop at-bats. His projection for
this year is a bounce-back to two wins, but I think he can go farther, mainly with the glove.
He has a beard now, you see, and he's the most experienced player on the infield. He's
also, without being a stat nerd, at least someone who's willing to have conversations with
<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccarbr01.shtml">Brandon McCarthy</a></strong> about those kinds of things. All of which means that he's going to be
making serious improvement with the glove, a return to 2010 form. Ten more runs in the
field over his PECOTA projection means one more win in his WARP total.</p>
<p>Finally, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/donaljo02.shtml">Josh Donaldson</a></strong> is a 25-year-old rookie who until <em>very</em> recently
was a catcher who was learning third base to give himself some more roster utility. Now
he's the A's starting third baseman because <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sizemsc01.shtml">Scott Sizemore</a></strong> wrecked his knee. PECOTA
thinks Donaldson will be mediocre, with a .252 TAv leading to 1.1 WARP in 424 PAs,
mostly at third, with some at catcher. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/melvibo01.shtml">Bob Melvin</a></strong> has basically said that Donaldson won't
be catching, though, so let's suppose that ridding himself of the tools of ignorance lets
Donaldson free of the prison of not-really-hitting-very-well. Instead of 60% of the third
base time, with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sogarer01.shtml">Eric Sogard</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rosalad01.shtml">Adam Rosales</a></strong> splitting the rest, we can have Donaldson
take 90% of it, destroy his .227 projected batting average, and rack up north of two
WARP, adding the last win the A's need to take them all the way to 88.</p>
<p>Summing up!</p>
<p>+1.0 wins (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colonba01.shtml">Bartolo Colon</a></strong> doesn't fall apart)<br />
+0.5 wins (Tommy Milone starts 30+ games)<br />
+2.0 wins (a young pitcher seizes the #5 spot)<br />
+0.5 wins (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/norbejo01.shtml">Jordan Norberto</a></strong> pitches adequately in long relief)<br />
+1.0 wins (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Chris+Carter">Chris Carter</a></strong> becomes my hero)<br />
+1.0 wins (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reddijo01.shtml">Josh Reddick</a></strong> lives up to his promise)<br />
+2.0 wins (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weeksje01.shtml">Jemile Weeks</a></strong> is a star, not an average player)<br />
+1.0 wins (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pennicl01.shtml">Cliff Pennington</a></strong> can field like a dream)<br />
+1.0 wins (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/donaljo02.shtml">Josh Donaldson</a></strong> is liberated)<br />
+5.0 wins (run distribution luck)<br />
====<br />
+15 wins = 88 wins and <em>respectability</em>.</p>Jason Wojciechowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16935366214824790506noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-18711985173140499102012-03-19T10:00:00.000-05:002012-03-19T14:02:10.684-05:00The Path to Respectability: Seattle Mariners<p><strong>by Jason Wojciechowski</strong></p>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;
margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="http://farm1.staticflickr.com/39/112714001_c9879f888b_d.jpg" width="350" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Where's the rain?<br />
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/michaelrighi/112714001/">Photo by Michael Righi</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>You'll forgive the long layoff between Path to Respectability posts. I poisoned myself this week with peanut butter, so I was out of commission for some time. To catch up, <a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/path-to-respectability-baltimore.html">the Orioles were covered here</a> and I wrote about <a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/path-to-respectability-kansas-city.html">the Royals here</a>. After the Mariners, I'll go on to do the A's, Astros, Pirates, and probably the Cubs. Arguably bad teams that I'm skipping are the Twins (because <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16164">Bill covered there</a> at <em>Baseball Prospectus</em>), the White Sox (because in the Central, as a team that PECOTA sees winning 77 games, 88 could result just via schedule and some luck), the Mets, Dodgers, and Padres (78-to-79-win teams per PECOTA, too close to my target of 88 to make this exercise much fun). This is a shift from my original idea to take the worst team in each division, because that's less fun than looking at the actual bad teams. Like I said, pushing the Mets or Padres to 88 wins is boring.</p>
<p>Onward!</p>
<p>The basics on Seattle: PECOTA has them at 70-92, last place even behind the A's in the West, a full <em>seventeen</em> games back of Texas, on the "strength" of the second-worst offense (by True Average, BP's offensive value stat, which is park-adjusted) in the American League. The only real bright spots on the roster are <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=monteje01&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Jesus Montero</a></strong> (2.8 WARP projection despite nearly all his playing time coming at designated hitter) and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Felix Hernandez</a></strong> (you've heard of him).</p>
<a name='more'></a>
<p>As always, I start with five free wins purely on run-distribution or other luck, which pushes the Mariners to 75 wins and leaves me looking for 13 more wins on the roster as it stands.</p>
<p>One place to look for help is the starting rotation, which, behind Felix Hernandez, is not impressive. <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vargaja01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Jason Vargas</a></strong> has had two good seasons (putting up league-average WARP figures), but PECOTA is not a believer in his low-strikeout, low-walk, low-BABIP ways. He's still just 29, though, and he's one of Those Lefties, and his fly-ball ways theoretically play well with Seattle's park and defense (depending on who is in center and left, anyway -- <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carpmi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Mike Carp</a></strong> doesn't come with a stellar defensive reputation, and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gutiefr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Franklin Gutierrez</a></strong> may never stay healthy). Instead of the 0.6 WARP he's currently projected for, I think 1.6 is entirely reasonable -- it's less than he was worth the last two seasons, after all.</p>
<p>I'd love to find hope for <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/millwke01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Kevin Millwood</a></strong>, but I think the hope lies in Danny Hultzen, the Mariners' first-round pick from last season, coming quickly and becoming a major-league weapon in Millwood's place, either because the veteran gets hurt or is released. PECOTA sees Millwood being below replacement level (in 168 IP). That slot in the rotation could easily turn positive with Hultzen there, even if modestly so. Let's add one win there from a combination of addition-by-subtraction and prospect growth.</p>
<p>Finally, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/noesihe01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Hector Noesi</a></strong> probably isn't very good (his minor-league BABIP numbers look like those of a player who typically does <em>not</em> survive to be a major-leaguer), and PECOTA says he'll be replacement level in 144 innings. If he runs into some luck and starts getting a bunch of pop-ups or allows some freakishly low number of homers or sees his BABIP drop from the projected .310 down to .270, then he could be worth a win more than we're currently counting on him to be worth. It's a tough sell, a lot tougher sell than for Hultzen or Vargas, but I'll be honest: I'm struggling. I need to squeeze every win out of this rotation that I can.</p>
<p>Moving to the lineup, there are a number of highly regarded (or formerly highly regarded) young players who will have every-day roles. <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smoakju01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Justin Smoak</a></strong> disappointed with just a .234/.323/.396 line and bad defense by FRAA at first base in 2011. <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ackledu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Dustin Ackley</a></strong> stung the ball to the tune of a .296 TAv in a half-season last year while playing adequate defense, managing to rack up 2.5 WARP despite playing 66 games to start the year in Tacoma. Finally, Jesus Montero was acquired by trade from the Yankees and should be the DH, as mentioned above, though the word is that the Mariners aren't done with him behind the plate.</p>
<p>Montero's projection calls for 2.8 WARP, and I just can't ask him for more, not as a DH, not as a rookie. Smoak, though, is projected for some regression in his bat, though PECOTA likes his defensive track record (a positive year in 2010, non-terrible numbers in the minors) enough to give him average defense at first. This is probably fair, because, whatever injury excuses and so forth that Smoak has for his 2011 year (<a href="http://mynorthwest.com/?sid=626130&nid=651">and he does have them</a>), he didn't hit in 489 PAs last year and didn't hit in 397 PAs in 2010. He did hit in 225 PAs in AAA in 2010 and 227 PAs in AA in 2009, and he's got a draft pedigree, but he's hardly a sure thing to bounce back. Still, we're being optimistic, so let's say that a full, healthy season does let Smoak, at 25, show what everyone's been waiting for, hitting like a first-baseman, defending adequately, and playing 150 games. We won't make him a superstar, but expecting two more wins than PECOTA does (2.8 WARP instead of 0.8) sounds fine.</p>
<p>As to Ackley, here are his True Averages at his four professional stops:</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Year</th>
<th>Level</th>
<th>PAs</th>
<th>TAv</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2010</td>
<td>AA</td>
<td>350</td>
<td>.284</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2010</td>
<td>AAA</td>
<td>237</td>
<td>.290</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2011</td>
<td>AAA</td>
<td>331</td>
<td>.294</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2011</td>
<td>Maj</td>
<td>376</td>
<td>.296</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>It's silly to project Ackley to actually <em>improve</em> on those numbers, but the guy wasn't the number two overall pick in 2009 for nothing. He can hit, he can take a walk, and he can steal a base. As long as his defense isn't atrocious at second, Seattle fans are justified in being excited about Ackley's 2012 season. PECOTA says just 1.6 WARP, but if Ackley repeats last year, we can add three to that.</p>
<p>On the opposite end of the age spectrum is 38-year-old Ichiro, who had by far the worst season of his career in 2011, hitting over 40 points below his career True Average, and even having FRAA throw up all over his defensive skills -- he'd been rated average or above-average by the system his entire career, but managed an astounding -18 in 2011. PECOTA sees a bounce-back to league-average work on offense (still well below his career numbers) and defense, which adds up to just one WARP because he's a corner outfielder, and league-average offense isn't good enough for those types. We don't have to think that Ichiro will get all the way back to his old level (he's averaged over four WARP per year for his career, even after 2011) to give him more value than PECOTA thinks he'll have, which is good. Like I said, he's 38. So let's say two WARP instead of one.</p>
<p>Third base is currently populated by a bunch of dudes. <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/figgich01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Chone Figgins</a></strong> has fallen apart after spending the early part of his career being an on-base source with blazing speed and good defense at multiple positions. <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/seageky01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Kyle Seager</a></strong> and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/liddial01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Alex Liddi</a></strong> are basically nobody. Their total contributions at third base come to something like 1.5 WARP. That's not a happy figure. It's possible, though, that Liddi, a still-young large man with pop, could break out. Figgins could return to his glory days. Seager, also just 24 and with a history of getting on base in the minors, could translate his success to the majors. We don't have to worry too much about which one or why, but let's suppose that one of the three seizes the position and proceeds to put up a nice 2.5 WARP season, adding a win to the ledger.</p>
<p>Franklin Gutierrez is hurt again, this time with a torn pectoral muscle. The current <em>BP</em> Depth Chart has Gutierrez racking up just 373 PAs on the season, which is probably right, but being optimistic, he could make it back from his injury and put up a reasonably full season -- say 575 or 600 plate appearances. Additionally, PECOTA apparently doesn't like his defense, even though he's put up above-average FRAA marks for five years running. A full year with 2010's bat (a down year compared to his remarkable 2009) and 2009's glove (+10 in the field) should make him something like a 2.5-WARP player, a one-win improvement over his projection. (Technical note: Gutierrez getting more time on the field eats into <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saundmi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Michael Saunders</a></strong>, who currently has a WARP projection of 0.4. Let's assume he'll get half that time (soaking up the rest of the center-field at-bats) while hitting better than the ugly .238 TAv PECOTA sees for him and thus duplicating his WARP contribution in less time.)</p>
<p>We're down to needing two wins to get the Mariners to 88. One of those is going to come from <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jasojo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">John Jaso</a></strong> claiming the lion's share of the playing time at catcher and replicating his 2010 season in Tampa, when he hit .263/.372/.378 in 404 plate appearances, good for two WARP. Two wins is 1.2 more than he's currently projected for, but we're going to lose 0.2 when we cut <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/olivomi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Miguel Olivo</a></strong> (0.4 WARP in 324 PAs) down to a 160-PA backup role, so the actual gain is one win.</p>
<p>The last win comes in the bullpen. <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilheto01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Tom Wilhelmsen</a></strong> is currently slated to take away half a win in 60 innings of relief. We can figure this two ways: if he's pitching that many innings, he has to pitch them well; or if he's pitching poorly, his innings will be taken by someone else. Despite the fact that Wilhelmsen left professional baseball for <em>four</em> years, the state of Seattle's roster (looking at you, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker&id=luetge001luc">Lucas Luetge</a></strong>) means that it's easier for me to see Wilhelmsen pitch like last year (3.40 FIP, 0 WARP in 32 2/3 innings), improving his projection from negative to zero, than to see someone else stepping up. The last half a win (and I'm sorry to do this, but ...) comes from <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leagubr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Brandon League</a></strong>, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kellesh01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Shawn Kelley</a></strong>, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruffich01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Chance Ruffin</a></strong>, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kuoho01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Hong-Chih Kuo</a></strong>, and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sherrge01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">George Sherrill</a></strong>. Combined. I can't figure out a +0.5 WARP from any single one of them, so how about +0.1 from each?</p>
<p>So, summing up:</p>
<p>+0.5 wins, general bullpen<br />
+0.5 wins, Tom Wilhelmsen (pitches like 2011)<br />
+1.2 wins, John Jaso (OBP source, seizes the role)<br />
-0.2 wins, Miguel Olivo (Jaso seized the role)<br />
+1.0 wins, Franklin Gutierrez (health and glove)<br />
-0.2 wins, Michael Saunders (PT)<br />
+0.2 wins, Michael Saunders (small uptick in the bat)<br />
+1.0 wins, third base (flip enough coins)<br />
+1.0 wins, Ichiro (regaining mojo)<br />
+3.0 wins, Dustin Ackley (repeating 2011)<br />
+2.0 wins, Justin Smoak (redeems himself)<br />
+1.0 wins, Hector Noesi (pitches like <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moscogu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker">Guillermo Moscoso</a></strong>)<br />
+1.0 wins, Danny Hultzen / Kevin Millwood (fast-tracked rookie arrives)<br />
+1.0 wins, Jason Vargas (pitches better than his stuff again)<br />
+5.0 wins, run-distribution luck<br />
===<br />
+18 wins</p>
<p>It wasn't easy, but there's your reasonable shot at 88 wins, Mariners fans.</p>Jason Wojciechowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16935366214824790506noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-51491505490750902802012-03-16T13:27:00.002-05:002012-03-16T13:33:27.583-05:00Just This Once, Shut Up George Brett<strong>By The Common Man</strong><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://blog.squeezeplaycards.com/wp-content/uploads/1989-Topps-George-Brett.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img aea="true" border="0" height="320px" src="http://blog.squeezeplaycards.com/wp-content/uploads/1989-Topps-George-Brett.jpg" width="228px" /></a></div>Let The Common Man preface this by saying that he loves George Brett. Brett was a tremendous player who led some really good Royals teams in the late 1970s and 1980s. He is almost certainly one of the top 5 third basemen of all time (and you know how we love third basemen around here). Well deserving of all the honors and <a href="http://www.homestarrunner.com/sbemail74.html">privileges</a> that come with being an all-time great. <br />
<br />
<br />
But maybe George Brett should have, in this instance, shut the hell up <a href="http://www.azcentral.com/sports/heatindex/articles/2012/03/15/20120315hall-famer-george-brett-speaks-his-mind.html">instead of saying</a> “guys in the 500-home run club, guys like Schmitty (Mike Schmidt) and some other guys like that, if those guys [“PE”D users] make it in then they’ll…never go back and attend (the Hall of Fame inductions) if the cheaters get elected.” Because, as we’ve <a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2011/12/everyone-played-with-peds-users.html">pointed out here repeatedly</a>, virtually everyone who has played since the mid-80s has played with steroid users. This includes George Brett (Wally Joyner and Phil Hyatt, if you’re interested). Steroid use in baseball dates back to Brett’s heyday in the 1970s. And there’s an excellent chance that someone has been enshrined in the Hall of Fame who used illegal drugs designed to help them play better. And <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/16/george-brett-if-steroid-users-get-elected-to-the-hall-of-fame-current-inductees-will-boycott/">as Craig Calcaterra pointed out this morning</a>, it’s Mike Schmidt actually believes the exact opposite of what Brett alleges.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>Hell, we know that dozens of Hall of Famers, including Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, and Mickey Mantle, used amphetamines in their careers specifically so they could play better. It wasn’t against the rules, necessarily (much like steroids weren’t against the rules for much of the so-called steroid era), but the intent and the form is essentially the same.<br />
<br />
What’s more, cheaters are most certainly in the Hall of Fame. John McGraw, King Kelly, Whitey Ford, Leo Durocher, and Gaylord Perry all cheated. Hall of Famers, every one. <br />
<br />
So again, George Brett. We love you. You’re a worthy Hall of Famer. But stop pretending that you’re not in a club that let’s in any criminal, racist, degenerate, cheating jerkwad who was good at baseball but who didn’t bet on the game.The Common Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09994070642805307798noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-20520033132430723102012-03-16T09:00:00.006-05:002012-03-16T09:00:07.293-05:00In Which Jackie Robinson Wins All the MVPs<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://images.checkoutmycards.com/zoom/ecd33d4d-2383-479c-8f47-52abb69db714.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://images.checkoutmycards.com/zoom/ecd33d4d-2383-479c-8f47-52abb69db714.jpg" width="226" /></a></div>
<b>By Bill</b><br />
<b><br /></b><br />
Initially, this was going to be about <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/musiast01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Stan Musial</a></strong>. Through the age of 27, Musial had won three MVP awards in five seasons (ignoring the one he missed while at war) and added a fourth-place finish. He'd never win another, but he would go on to finish in the top ten of the voting for the next nine consecutive years, including second-place finishes from 1949 through 1951 and in 1957. In many of those years (see <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/konstji01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jim Konstanty</a></strong> in 1950 and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sauerha01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Hank Sauer</a></strong> in 1952, for instance) the actual winner of the MVP Award was substantially less deserving than Stan the Man was. I approached this thinking that maybe the voters just got tired of giving Musial the award -- as they seem to have done much later with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsba01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Barry Bonds</a></strong>, robbed several times from 1995-2000 -- and that perhaps one could argue that Stan really should've ended up with seven or eight awards.<br />
<br />
One can't, though, or at least I can't. It's not that he wasn't better than the majority of MVP winners from 1949 through 1957; he certainly was. And there's a beloved legend who was deprived of multiple MVP awards during those years; it just wasn't Musial. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/robinja02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jackie Robinson</a></strong>, by and large, was even better.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
When people think of Jackie, they tend to think primarily of things other than his play on the field. As well they should. But the problem is that it makes it easy to forget or to fail to appreciate exactly how great Robinson was. He was able to log just ten years of MLB service time, and played in 140 or more games in only the first six of them, and aside from his .342 batting average in 1949 and a couple stolen base titles, he never led the league in any of the traditional statistical categories. It's not that hard to find suggestions that he's "overrated" -- and defenders who will insist that he's not because "it's not about the stats." (Ex. <a href="http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20070414144842AAkNxAV" target="_blank">A</a>, <a href="http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread.php/102750-Jackie-Robinson-overrated" target="_blank">B</a>, <a href="http://www.wildwestsports.com/Discussion/Board/Football/Post/View/1064798/jackie-robinson-is-the-most-over-rated" target="_blank">C</a>, <a href="http://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=62255" target="_blank">D</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballforum.com/dugout/55384-jackie-robinson-overrated.html" target="_blank">E</a>.)<br />
<br />
He was a great player, though. Really, really great. If racism had never been introduced to the world and it took Robinson until 28 to make the Majors only because, say, he had tried his luck at pro football or real estate investing first, his place in history would obviously be quite different, but you could make a damn good argument that he still belongs in the Hall and among the five or so greatest 2Bs in history. As Adam Darowski writes, he was <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/5/19/1478592/defining-good-at-everything" target="_blank">good at everything</a>. As Chris Quick notes, Jackie even <a href="http://www.baycityball.com/2012/03/14/going-out-on-top-a-closer-look-at-will-clarks-2000-season/" target="_blank">went out on top</a>, putting together the best final season by any player since 1950.<br />
<br />
But two or three more MVP awards would certainly have helped Jackie's credentials, and I think there's a very good argument that he deserved them. Behold:<br />
<br />
<b>1949: </b>In Robinson's third season, he led the league with that .342 batting average, to go with a .432 OBP (2nd in the NL) and .528 SLG (3rd). He had a career-high 124 RBI (2nd in the league) and 37 steals (1st). He led all of baseball with 10.3 rWAR, and he did actually win his one and only NL MVP, with 12 of the 24 first place votes. Musial finished second with five firsts.<br />
<br />
<b>1950:</b> Jackie's offensive numbers took a step back across the board, but were still spectacular: he hit .328/.423/.500, with 39 doubles and 14 homers, finishing second in batting average and third in OBP, and played brilliant defense. His 7.5 WAR was second in the NL. He finished just 15th in the MVP voting, however, and the award was taken by the aforementioned Konstanty, who had a great year in relief for the champion Phillies -- 16-7, 22 saves and a 2.66 ERA in 152 innings -- but was still just a relief pitcher, earning just 3.5 WAR.<br />
<br />
Your WAR leader was the Giants' <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stanked01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Eddie Stanky</a></strong>, at 8.0, who led the league with 144 walks and a .460 OBP (but put up just a .412 SLG). However, Total Zone's measure of their defense at second base accounts for virtually the entire (already very small) difference between the two -- Robinson gets +10 runs, Stanky +14 -- and over the years, Robinson's defense tended to grade out significantly better than Stanky's. You could make a case for either one -- certainly a better one than can be made for Konstanty -- but I tend to believe Robinson was best in the NL in 1950. I'd give him this MVP, his second in a row.<br />
<br />
<b>1951:</b> Jackie had a season virtually identical to his '49 MVP year: .338/.429/.527, with 19 homers and 25 steals, and +16 fielding runs for a league-leading 9.8 WAR. He finished sixth in the MVP voting; the award went to teammate <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/camparo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Roy Campanella</a></strong>, who hit .325/.393/.590 with 33 homers while catching 140 games. Campanella gets "just" 7.0 WAR -- he had 80 fewer plate appearances than Robinson did, and gets 14 fewer fielding runs -- but you could give him a ton of extra credit for his being a catcher (Jackie gets more credit in the positional adjustment than Campy does, somehow) and argue that it's justified. You could also argue for Musial, who put up one of his best years with the bat and amassed 8.7 WAR.<br />
<br />
We'll keep this one with Campy, because that's how the voters saw them at the time and it's close enough among the three. But Jackie certainly should have finished in the top three. I'm already kind of regretting this, because I suspect Robinson was probably just a touch better, but I don't want to go overboard with the revisionism.<br />
<br />
<b>1952:</b> The power dropped off (all in doubles -- he hit an identical 19 homers, but slugged 60 points lower), but Jackie made up for it by leading the league and setting his career high in OBP, putting up a nifty .308/.440/.465 line that was roughly as valuable as his 1949 and '51. He led the league in WAR again, at 8.7. The aforementioned Hank Sauer, who hit 37 homers but was just clearly inferior to Robinson (and others), won the MVP; Musial was great again (league-leading 167 OPS+, 7.0 WAR), and second-finishing <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roberro01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Robin Roberts</a></strong> could justifiably have won (28-7, 2.59 ERA in a remarkable 330 innings, 7.8 WAR).<br />
<br />
I think this one belonged to Jackie, though. Roberts is the one really serious contender, and Jackie still beat him in WAR (and I'm <a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2011/09/blogfight-should-pitchers-win-mvp.html" target="_blank">not a big fan of pitchers as MVP</a> anyway).<br />
<br />
<b>1953:</b> After finishing first, second, first, and first, Robinson plummeted all the way to fourth in WAR, at 7.3. His OPS+ dipped just a bit, but most of the difference was that he got 60 fewer plate appearances and shifted off of second base, playing mostly left field and third (Total Zone thinks he fielded both brilliantly). Campanella won the MVP again -- in something of a landslide this time -- but with a virtually identical WAR to Robinson's (7.2). WAR thinks that it was <i>another</i> teammate, though, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snidedu01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Duke Snider</a></strong> (at 9.5), who was robbed, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/matheed01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Eddie Mathews</a></strong> put up an 8.9. Jackie deserved much better than his twelfth-place finish (behind <i>clearly</i> inferior teammates <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/erskica01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Carl Erskine</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/furilca01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Carl Furillo</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reesepe01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Pee Wee Reese</a></strong>), but it's a bit hard to give this one to Robinson. He should certainly have been in the top five, though -- probably fourth, behind Campanella, Snider and Mathews in some order.<br />
<br />
Jackie fell off after that -- he was just as effective with the bat in '54 as he had been in '53, but played in fewer games and (apparently) average defense, then had his "worst" year (still managing a .378 OBP and 2.8 WAR) in 1955, the year the Dodgers finally won it all, then came back with that strong 4.6-WAR finale that Chris wrote about in the link above.<br />
<br />
But that's a five-year stretch in which Robinson wins <i>three</i> MVPs, matching Musial's feat, rather than just the one -- 1949, '50, and '52 -- with a very close second in '51 (and you can justly give him that one to make it a Bondsian four in a row, if you want to) and another top-five finish in '53. He'd be one of just eleven players ever to win three or more MVPs, and at the time he did it, he'd have been just the fourth (though followed <i>very</i> closely by Campanella and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/berrayo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Yogi Berra</a></strong>). It does more justice to Jackie, and does a much better job of calling attention to how completely dominant he was, albeit for much too short a time.Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07840958382433052735noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-37797464657484592462012-03-15T12:00:00.001-05:002012-03-15T12:08:12.413-05:00How Many Home Runs Do Hitters with High Just Enoughs Lose the Following Year?<b>By Chris St. John</b><br />
<b><br />
</b><br />
<b>INTRODUCTION</b><br />
A little over a week ago I looked at <a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/what-were-most-damaging-home-runs-in.html">Home Run Damage</a>, an attempt to quantify the awesomeness of home runs. Now, I'd like to look at the opposite end of the spectrum - home runs that barely made it over the fence, or just enoughs.<br />
<br />
The question is raised: Do hitters who hit more just enoughs in one year hit fewer home runs the next? If so, how many? Well I have this information from the <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/">ESPN Home Run Tracker</a>, so let's see! If anything, I like to get as much use out of one data set as possible.<br />
<br />
<b>METHOD</b><br />
I found each hitter's total amount of JE, JE/L and JE/ULs in one year and compared it to the difference in HRs hit between the two years. Only hitters with more than 10 total HRs both years qualified. This covers the years from 2007-2011.<br />
<br />
I also looked at JEs divided by total HRs in one year versus the difference in HRs next year, thinking a power hitter will hit more home runs in general, including those that barely sneak over the fence. However, there was no correlation between the two.<br />
<br />
<b>RESULTS</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQVG1fIVyyxoayUioqG5p0Sso9NWZDE35XjVueVRbcwesyg_AA0w4swZ-xVCVLG6eszyKKwEErz7mkGAS2977JM_aUGyOytkZJ3TkljHj26ZGNb9FAbfbQPGGXxlHr_cpDk7YCuEiWR71r/s1600/JustEnoughs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQVG1fIVyyxoayUioqG5p0Sso9NWZDE35XjVueVRbcwesyg_AA0w4swZ-xVCVLG6eszyKKwEErz7mkGAS2977JM_aUGyOytkZJ3TkljHj26ZGNb9FAbfbQPGGXxlHr_cpDk7YCuEiWR71r/s320/JustEnoughs.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><i>Click to enlarge</i></div><br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
(Yes, that outlier is Jose Bautista 2009-2010). There is a quadratic relationship between the two which tapers off at higher JE values. The correlation coefficient is usable, but not extremely high. Here is a chart that solves the quadratic equation for 0-20 JEs in year 1:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjUPu7PAGdnqdX3aMSTHvJnIsC374uba8vaGprG78nnVuE2GUoSTdoCBFaIpK0ttL1kVS9R_8W4ZCv1142zaDk7BFnhIszzXh5OEXmJdt0H7q6rNVoYDxDvLWU0TsSBspRNZO8gsn-NB_O/s1600/AddedHRs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjUPu7PAGdnqdX3aMSTHvJnIsC374uba8vaGprG78nnVuE2GUoSTdoCBFaIpK0ttL1kVS9R_8W4ZCv1142zaDk7BFnhIszzXh5OEXmJdt0H7q6rNVoYDxDvLWU0TsSBspRNZO8gsn-NB_O/s320/AddedHRs.jpg" width="118" /></a></div><br />
The average player with more than 10 HRs hits about seven JEs per year.<br />
<br />
So what does that mean for the players last year?<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_Ohszwm33-W5fWWt4IHDdHbUkxPK75J1AfI7-ZQDjUo2tYQpxFTFO98dvNbx2uKx81KgSMadzhQCNP8xrE9nZA5UUkEOzXxxhQQg0Ff5wh6AbFI47vOmIGjIQD69j_tXZDc5FuwRgGBsS/s1600/2012Added.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_Ohszwm33-W5fWWt4IHDdHbUkxPK75J1AfI7-ZQDjUo2tYQpxFTFO98dvNbx2uKx81KgSMadzhQCNP8xrE9nZA5UUkEOzXxxhQQg0Ff5wh6AbFI47vOmIGjIQD69j_tXZDc5FuwRgGBsS/s320/2012Added.jpg" width="169" /></a></div><br />
At the top of the list, four players (Miguel Cabrera, Evan Longoria, J.J. Hardy and Albert Pujols) generally hit a lot of JE HRs. Cabrera's, Longoria's and Hardy's numbers are a bit larger than average, so it's possible they may lose a few HRs this year. Ryan Howard is another player who hits a lot of JEs, but he will miss a lot of the season with an Achilles injury. Adam Lind and Ian Kinsler are more likely than the other three to lose some HRs next year. Howie Kendrick is an interesting case because he actually hit a lot of JE HRs in 2010 (9/10 total HRs) and ended up hitting 18 the next year. Perhaps he will drop down closer to 10 or perhaps he had a breakout season. Michael Morse bursted onto the scene last year with 31 home runs. With 13 JEs, I imagine his numbers will go down a bit next year. Finally, there is Asdrubal Cabrera. After hitting a total of 18 HRs in four years, he hit 25 HRs last year and 60% of them were JEs. He is the most likely candidate for a good dose of regression.<br />
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The bottom of the list contains ten players who generally hit low JEs (Brent Morel, Mike Carp, Casey Kotchman, Juan Rivera, Kelly Shoppach, Eric Thames, Casper Wells, Desmond Jennings, Shelley Duncan and Scott Sizemore). However, many of them are young players with little or no history and have a chance to increase their output next year. The next group is Carl Crawford, Jason Bay, Colby Rasmus and Edwin Encarnacion. These players may have a chance to increase their HR totals a little more next season. Finally, we have Adam Dunn, Hideki Matsui and Carlos Pena. All three of these players moved to different teams last year. Dunn and Matsui were obviously worse than they have been in their career and there are some who believe their careers are nearly over. Pena's stats were actually more in line with his career norms. Perhaps Wrigley Field turned some of his JEs into Plenties? He will return to Tropicana Field this year as a Ray, so this will be an interesting thing to keep an eye on.<br />
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<b>CONCLUSION</b><br />
There are a lot of variables missing here: age, park effects, hitter power, regression, injury, playing time, the list goes on. However, there is a correlation between a hitter getting a lot of "Just Enough" home runs and having fewer total home runs the next year, but it's not a perfect relationship and the effect isn't huge.<br />
<br />
I did look at how much a player varied from their average career amount of JEs and what percentage of home runs they gained or lost the next year from their career total. The trend is the same as the total amount of JEs, but the correlation coefficient is actually smaller. This means that a player's total amount of JEs in one season has more to say about what he will do next season than his deviation from his career average of JEs.<br />
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If you have any questions, you can contact me on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/stealofhome">@stealofhome</a>.Chris St. Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03346868654558458088noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-26363507682246867402012-03-14T09:00:00.013-05:002012-03-14T09:00:03.792-05:00On the Greatness of Carlos Beltran<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://images.checkoutmycards.com/zoom/d4717c19-e078-45ed-abde-ab01feb08bd4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://images.checkoutmycards.com/zoom/d4717c19-e078-45ed-abde-ab01feb08bd4.jpg" width="227" /></a></div>
<b>By Bill</b><br />
<b><br /></b><br />
So <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrca01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Carlos Beltran</a></strong> was in the news a bit yesterday (that is, at least, the drummed-up nothing that real-news-starved writers try to <i>pass</i> for news during this part of the year, when actual news doesn't happen), when he, technically, faced off against his longest-tenured former team for the first time since his trade from the Mets last July. Beltran had some light-hearted comments about former teammate Jon Niese's nose job and some classy, polite and low-key <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/13/carlos-beltran-offers-his-thoughts-on-the-mets/" target="_blank">things to say</a> about the Mets. (He was 1-for-4 with a run scored in the "game.")<br />
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I'm a bit surprised, but I haven't been able to find any Mets fans or media who have found a way to twist this into something negative about Beltran, yet. Maybe everything is forgotten once he's not on the team anymore? I don't want to try to judge the Mets fanbase as a whole, but the talk radio crowd and media were hugely critical of Beltran during the course of his contract with the team, painting him as lazy, selfish, all the usual stuff. The great <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/OGTedberg" target="_blank">Ted Berg</a> has done a great job of counteracting all that.<br />
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But anyway, I didn't see any of that today in response to Beltran's comments. Though there was this, on Twitter, from the also-excellent Mark Healey:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Someone called me up last night and compared <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marisro01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Roger Maris</a></strong> to Carlos Beltran. The difference? Maris ' 2 MVPs and WS rings <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%2523stlcards">#stlcards</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%2523mets">#mets</a><br />
— Mark Healey (@MHealeyBaseball) <a data-datetime="2012-03-13T12:57:15+00:00" href="https://twitter.com/MHealeyBaseball/status/179551698761682944">March 13, 2012</a></blockquote>
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I assume Mark's point was to explain the difference between how the two men were treated in New York, and not actually to compare them as players. Because the real difference is that Beltran has had just a much, much better career than Maris. And that tweet does get to exactly why people don't seem to get that; Beltran has had two years roughly as great as Maris' two MVP years (and a ton more good-to-very-good years), but just didn't happen to get the hardware. And he's done just as much to help his teams win as Maris did (considerably more, for most years of their respective careers), but hasn't had the team around and behind him to turn that into a championship.<br />
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You probably know that, and you probably don't need me to explain to you that Beltran was better than Maris, or that his peerless baserunning and brilliant defense (to go along with his excellent bat) are what have made him such a great, and underappreciated, player. That's, like, <i>so</i> 2009. Instead, here are some facts about Beltran that I<i> </i>hope make you think about him in a way you haven't, quite, before:<br />
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<li>Beltran ranks as the sixth-greatest position player in Kansas City Royals history, with 24.6 rWAR. The five players ahead of him (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brettge01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">George Brett</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/otisam01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Amos Otis</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilsowi02.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Willie Wilson</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whitefr01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Frank White</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcraeha01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Hal McRae</a></strong>) all had at least twice as many games and plate appearances with the team than Beltran's 795 and 3512.</li>
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<li>He's also the third-greatest position player in New York Mets history, with 31.7 rWAR, behind <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strawda01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Darryl Strawberry</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighda03.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">David Wright</a></strong>, and with fewer games and plate appearances with the team than anyone else in the top nine.</li>
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<li>He's actually the 54th-greatest player in <i>Houston Astros</i> history, having put up 3.5 rWAR in his 90 games and 399 PA with the team in 2004 (that doesn't even count his historic postseason, which I'm guessing would bump him up the list quite a bit in most fans' eyes).</li>
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<li>He doesn't have <i>quite</i> the same standing in Giants history, of course, but his 12 WAR batting runs in just 179 plate appearances was second on the 2011 team, behind <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandopa01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Pablo Sandoval</a></strong>.</li>
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<li>Among all players who have primarily been center fielders, Beltran's 60.8 rWAR ranks 11th all-time, surrounded by a bunch of other guys who probably don't impress much because they're <i>also</i> terribly underrated (<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/loftoke01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Kenny Lofton</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/edmonji01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Jim Edmonds</a></strong>, etc.). The only thing really separating center from third base as the most underrated positions is that CF has that big clump of all-time greats (Mays, Mantle, Cobb, Speaker, DiMaggio, Griffey) -- the great-but-not-<i>that</i>-great guys get just as raw a deal <a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2011/11/spare-thought-for-poor-neglected-third.html" target="_blank">as the third basemen do</a>.</li>
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<li>If he can manage seven more stolen bases (not quite a given considering the rate he's established over the last two years), Beltran will become <a href="http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/0GNGK" target="_blank">just the eighth player ever</a> to amass both 300 homers and 300 steals. It's not a list that's dominated <i>entirely</i> by legends, but Beltran has a lot more of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dawsoan01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Andre Dawson</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsbo01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Bobby Bonds</a></strong> in him than he has <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/finlest01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Steve Finley</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=sandere02,sandere01&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Reggie Sanders</a></strong>.</li>
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<li>Much more than the raw number of steals, Beltran's success rate is ridiculous. He's been caught just 41 times, just over half as many as any other player on that 300/300 list (and only <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodrial01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Alex Rodriguez</a></strong> has fewer than 100).</li>
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<li>Since 1950 (the time from which I believe both leagues consistently tracked CS), in fact, no other player has stolen as many as <i>200</i> bases while being caught fifty or fewer times. Second to Beltran's 293-41 is <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/taverwi01.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Willy Taveras</a></strong>' 195-44. So Beltran's success at basestealing is essentially as though Taveras, a very good basestealer (if nothing else) in his own right, had one more year in which he stole 100 bases without being caught once.</li>
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<li>Beltran's stolen-base success rate of 87.725% actually towers over <i>all</i> players with a minimum of 200 career attempts (<a href="http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/GZqt1" target="_blank">list here</a>), three full percentage points over the great <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=raineti02,raineti01&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker" target="_blank">Tim Raines</a></strong> (in many fewer attempts, of course). </li>
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</ul>
So you could say Beltran is the greatest percentage base stealer of all time, and he's also averaged a homer about every 25 plate appearances, and won three Gold Gloves while likely deserving several more. Other than hitting for average and, I guess, pitching, Beltran has done it all. I'm not going to argue that he belongs in the Hall of Fame (I suspect I'll probably be in favor with one or two more good seasons), but he's just a great, great player. He hasn't won any MVPs (though he justifiably could have done in 2003 and 2006), and he hasn't won any World Series (though he almost single-handedly got a team very close in 2004). All he's done has been great, in virtually all aspects of the game, for the majority of the last fourteen seasons.<br />
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And he's been hurt a bit too, of course. But you knew that, and he's this great <i>anyway</i>!Billhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07840958382433052735noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-74209805476419665862012-03-13T12:00:00.004-05:002012-03-13T12:37:15.141-05:00Tuesday Trade Tree: Rime of the Ancient Mariner<strong>By The Common Man</strong><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://images.addoway.com/items/2934/170757/2934_1_62de25.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img aea="true" border="0" height="320px" src="http://images.addoway.com/items/2934/170757/2934_1_62de25.jpg" width="228px" /></a></div>Once upon a time, there was a man named Bill Stein who was drafted in the 4th round of the amateur draft out of Southern Illinois University-Carbondale by his hometown Cardinals back in 1969. Stein never did much in Cardinal red so after a couple partial seasons, the Cardinals dealt him to the White Sox for Jeff DaVanon's dad. The White Sox of the mid-1970s were a mess, so they had room to give a light-hitting infielder 400 plate appearances in 1976 at second and third base. Stein hit .268/.310/.347 (which was actually good for a 92 OPS+) and was worth 0.1 win above replacement. He was not viewed as a significant part of the Sox franchise.<br />
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But that’s not what the newborn Seattle Mariners saw. They saw the cornerstone upon which their franchise would be built. Bill Stein may have been a mediocre (at best) utility infielder who couldn’t handle shortstop, but when the Mariners took him in the 5th round of the 1977 expansion draft, they knew that Bill Stein would be the key to their franchise’s future. That he would be responsible, in part, for 16% of the Mariners’ 2012 Major League roster. Observe:<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi75YjqbZ9x-n5Ky7Qh3EXR_79efn3ktcm5TcAGOKDbwIWdW-BLCKxJ9o-ROUG3siPBMpSNXg6IQgk3_qwdnfZuKit3Hn3i5g5BzE6s2XuoQbTonAVt6684ySrnltnQZFkaM4EirMOjeYE/s1600/Mariners+Trade+Tree.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img aea="true" border="0" height="320px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhi75YjqbZ9x-n5Ky7Qh3EXR_79efn3ktcm5TcAGOKDbwIWdW-BLCKxJ9o-ROUG3siPBMpSNXg6IQgk3_qwdnfZuKit3Hn3i5g5BzE6s2XuoQbTonAVt6684ySrnltnQZFkaM4EirMOjeYE/s640/Mariners+Trade+Tree.jpg" width="640px" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><strong>Click to embiggen</strong></td></tr>
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Stein was the regular 3B in that inaugural season, and lasted for four years in Seattle, hitting .259/.307/.383 in 1550 plate appearances, and worth 2.0 wins above replacement (rWAR). Clearly, when he left as a free agent after the 1980 season, it was a stinging loss that required a compensatory draft pick. Because any time you lose your backup second/third baseman, you deserve the Texas Rangers’ second round draft pick to make up for it.<br />
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With that pick, the Mariners chose a big lefty out of San Jose State named Mark Langston. Langston isn’t terribly well remembered these days, but was an absolute beast for about 10 years from the mid-‘80s to the mid-‘90s. He won 17 games as a rookie in 1984 while leading the AL in both strikeouts and walks, despite playing for a team that lost 88 games. He won 19 games in 1987. As a Mariner, he led the AL in strikeouts three times and was worth 18.5 WAR. But in 1989, Langston was headed toward free agency himself and had just rejected a three-year, $7.1 million extension offer, making it clear he would not re-sign with the perpetually bad M’s. The Mets offered Howard Johnson, Lenny Dykstra and David West (who was traded later that year for another lefty, Frank Viola), and there was a rumored three-team trade in the works involving Boston. <br />
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Instead, the Mariners sent him north of the border to Montreal, who sent back three young pitchers, Gene Harris, Brian Holman, and an impossibly tall lefty with control trouble named Randy Johnson. At first, Holman seemed to be the biggest find, putting together two more very strong seasons for the M’s before injuring his rotator cuff. He’d never play again, not even in the minors, and finished with 7.6 WAR in Seattle. But Johnson, of course, would be more successful in Seattle than even Langston was after some growing pains. In ten seasons, Johnson tallied 130 wins, a 128 ERA+, and 2162 strikeouts and earned 37.4 WAR. He led the AL in strikeouts four times ERA once, and won a Cy Young award. And in 1998, just as he was set to become a free agent, The Big Unit was traded mid-season to the Houston Astros.<br />
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In return, the Mariners got back Freddy Garcia, Carlos Guillen, and John Halama. Halama actually pitched well the next season before settling in as a mediocre swingman (4.4 WAR in Seattle). Guillen made himself into a quality shortstop (6.8 WAR in four full seasons), before he was sent to Detroit for a couple minor leaguers (including Ramon Santiago), where his offense exploded. Garcia, like Langston, won 17 games as a rookie in 1999, with a 124 ERA+. He finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting, and 9th in the Cy Young race. He’d make two All Star teams, and lead the AL in ERA once as a Mariner, winning 76 games, and earn 17.6 WAR.<br />
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Just before Garcia became a free agent, he was sent to the White Sox for Mike Morse, Miguel Olivo and Jeremy Reed. Olivo was pretty bad, and was sent to San Diego for a couple minor leaguers. Morse bounced between the majors and minors for four seasons, got involved in “PE”Ds, and was dealt to Washington for Ryan Langerhans, where he’s become a minor star. Reed, who was a huge prospect at the time, turned out to be a total bust. So the Mariners threw him in with relievers Sean Green and JJ Putz, and infielder Luis Valbuena in the big three team trade that brought the M’s current team members Mike Carp (1.4 WAR), Franklin Gutierrez (8.0 WAR), and Jason Vargas (3.6 WAR), along with Endy Chavez, Ezequiel Carrera, Maikel Cleto, and Aaron Heilman.<br />
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Carrera was dealt away to bring in Russell Branyan in 2010 (0.9 WAR). Heilman was immediately flipped for Ronny Cedeno and Garrett Olson, and Cedeno was part of the package the M’s used to get Ian Snell and Jack Wilson (2.6 WAR) from Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Cleto was sent to St. Louis for current Mariner Brendan Ryan (2.8 WAR). <br />
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That’s where we stand today. Stein lasted four years and was worth 2.0 WAR. Over time, the Mariners have leveraged that into one Hall of Famer, two other excellent pitchers, a star centerfielder, two starting shortstops, and four major parts of their 2012 roster. In all, these players were worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 wins above replacement for the Mariners over the course of the last 30 seasons. That’s a hell of a return on an expansion draft pick.The Common Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09994070642805307798noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-91361095646448344272012-03-13T11:00:00.019-05:002012-03-13T11:00:01.080-05:00What Do Minor League Walk and Strikeout Rates Tell Us About Prospects? Recap<b>By Chris St. John</b><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><br />
</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Introduction</b></span><br />
A few months ago, I created a database that includes all of the prospect rankings from Baseball America, Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein. I didn't have a direct purpose for it, I'm just the type of person who likes to accumulate as much data as possible. So it sat around on my computer until I found a good use for it. Well, thanks to fantasy baseball and Starling Marte's horrible 3.8% walk rate in AA last season, I have. Marte is a possible target in my dynasty minor league draft and I wanted to see what other prospects had poor walk rates and how successful they were in their careers.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Method</b></span><br />
In interest of saving digital space (and your scrolling finger), I will only post the full method on the Rookie and Low-A edition of this series.<br />
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<b style="font-size: x-large;">History</b><br />
<a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/02/what-do-minor-league-walk-and-strikeout.html">Rookie and Low-A</a><br />
<a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/02/what-do-minor-league-walk-and-strikeout_23.html">Single-A</a><br />
<a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/what-do-minor-league-walk-and-strikeout.html">Advanced-A</a><br />
<a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/what-do-minor-league-walk-and-strikeout_06.html">Double-A</a><br />
<a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/what-do-minor-league-walk-and-strikeout_12.html">Triple-A</a><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Bust Percentage</b></span><br />
I calculated a percentage of players who were busts at each level for high and low walk rates and strikeout rates. Remember, the Rookie and Low-A levels had very small sample sizes, so their numbers don't always follow the pattern. Looking at the data this way shows us where prospects have the most likely chance of failure.<br />
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I combined the Very Low/Low and Very High/High categories into one for simplicity's sake.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz-SMTTtGEkUCfq22Ejk4rLsJqHpTTyLg5zN3aR7TDK3S7BlVq7tCfNs9ao6HjTyfpq4H6ZdBy0b5aQhozs0IzZsvL7LpQad6JGb9eOwJPyiJ3ICmYK78yUfFK8cXSoe4UHJoDHdn-AyLx/s1600/BustTables.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="108" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz-SMTTtGEkUCfq22Ejk4rLsJqHpTTyLg5zN3aR7TDK3S7BlVq7tCfNs9ao6HjTyfpq4H6ZdBy0b5aQhozs0IzZsvL7LpQad6JGb9eOwJPyiJ3ICmYK78yUfFK8cXSoe4UHJoDHdn-AyLx/s320/BustTables.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
A player is least likely to bust with a high walk rate, a probability that increases with level. Players with high strikeout rates early in their careers are more likely to bust than those who strike out a lot at higher levels. Not striking out is better than striking out, but it's still no substitute for taking a walk. Not walking is about as bad as striking out a lot.<br />
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<b style="font-size: x-large;">Productive Percentage</b> <br />
I also looked at where prospects became most productive. This is where they have the most likely chance of success.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwtQFAVy8-asOcls7hIuYbaX-jQx4T1zqRLMusXv3lAKH3R7J339c4SIgrJx8Pu8LP5Es0N9gjFNPYm9VT5axOgfdaLHF9IiAuYIn7WjrY_WgT7B_fF3Wor_gr6Xe39e1xsk9ooAPCf0x_/s1600/ProductiveTables.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="108" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwtQFAVy8-asOcls7hIuYbaX-jQx4T1zqRLMusXv3lAKH3R7J339c4SIgrJx8Pu8LP5Es0N9gjFNPYm9VT5axOgfdaLHF9IiAuYIn7WjrY_WgT7B_fF3Wor_gr6Xe39e1xsk9ooAPCf0x_/s320/ProductiveTables.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
The more a player walks at higher levels, the more likely he is to become a productive hitter. Players who don't walk in the minor leagues are much less likely to succeed in the majors. Except in Double-A, players with either high or low strikeout rates are less likely to become productive than those with average rates.<br />
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<b style="font-size: x-large;">Boom or Bust</b><br />
This table shows the total percentage of productive and busted players at each category. The higher the percentage, the more likely a prospect in that category is a boom/bust player.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5pMOqDvCkG_WB-636Brz6ZWlbRfWm2NKjb0Wq6lC1tSzc2Qrlg2Vn_kHLSBpYthyphenhyphenzj3tBYCiWdV_s7fECcdszToU0FmbXicYeBpIOTi9rmJtwZuGsy8AYxTCM2WH4YMTevjIVq7qA87Gy/s1600/BoomBustTable.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="108" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5pMOqDvCkG_WB-636Brz6ZWlbRfWm2NKjb0Wq6lC1tSzc2Qrlg2Vn_kHLSBpYthyphenhyphenzj3tBYCiWdV_s7fECcdszToU0FmbXicYeBpIOTi9rmJtwZuGsy8AYxTCM2WH4YMTevjIVq7qA87Gy/s320/BoomBustTable.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
High strikeout players are the most boom/bust. Low strikeout players are most likely to become average MLB regulars, but not stars or scrubs.<br />
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<b style="font-size: x-large;">2011 Triple-A</b><br />
As we saw before, the best category a player can fall under to succeed is a high walk rate and an average strikeout rate in Triple-A. So let's look at those players last year. I only looked at players with more than 150 plate appearances. I filtered the final results to show only players age 26 and under.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwNQpbPL5PvljwXa741olxGXAYFdhI9jSTwVuAON6kV-MpOoKNSDsJXa5tPVWdHPlTaW7VoJn4njUxSZ4T9K8iRQ_3OaBXKz0mMBIywEVEtZgTF-O_4-3zcy90wui6I4TIMgIvAWyopZjB/s1600/PCLILTables.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwNQpbPL5PvljwXa741olxGXAYFdhI9jSTwVuAON6kV-MpOoKNSDsJXa5tPVWdHPlTaW7VoJn4njUxSZ4T9K8iRQ_3OaBXKz0mMBIywEVEtZgTF-O_4-3zcy90wui6I4TIMgIvAWyopZjB/s320/PCLILTables.jpg" width="253" /></a></div>#FreeBrandonBelt<br />
#FreeDomonicBrown<br />
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Not all of these players will get a chance, but I would like to see some of the younger players (Belt, Brown, Anderson) get constant big league playing time.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Conclusion</b></span><br />
One final table (I promise this is it...for today):<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOWMDlRBtZEzSvRPmGbzueVPdB66n-Cqlrr-lag4V9qY5q67eaMy3R5yAhuJKE18Z03dv2BsaoHRX0dJWvlOTY2azusyfrLzOSFbkbaXHa5RoD2hDmKSz0G1wG-8yULRcy7ihXpHSyRqKS/s1600/RecapTable.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="118" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOWMDlRBtZEzSvRPmGbzueVPdB66n-Cqlrr-lag4V9qY5q67eaMy3R5yAhuJKE18Z03dv2BsaoHRX0dJWvlOTY2azusyfrLzOSFbkbaXHa5RoD2hDmKSz0G1wG-8yULRcy7ihXpHSyRqKS/s320/RecapTable.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br />
"Most likely" is a bit of a misnomer, since a player is most likely to bust in pretty much every scenario. However, this table provides the most interesting descriptive term for each category.<br />
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And what about Starling Marte? A 12% success rate for prospects with low walk rates in Double-A was too much risk for me. I stayed away from him and took Oscar Taveras instead. You can read all about the rest of my draft at <a href="http://stealofhome.wordpress.com/2012/03/05/2012-fantasy-prospect-draft/">Steal of Home</a>.<br />
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I plan on digging deeper into these data to find more trends in productive and busted players. I would also like to look into how players improve or decline as they advance levels and how that correlates with their success.<br />
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If you would like to know anything specific about the data, you can contact me in the comments section below or on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/stealofhome">@stealofhome</a>.Chris St. Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03346868654558458088noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-1047655374828175842012-03-12T11:08:00.001-05:002012-03-13T11:44:30.842-05:00What Do Minor League Walk and Strikeout Rates Tell Us About Prospects? Triple-A Edition<b>By Chris St. John</b><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Introduction</b></span><br />
A few months ago, I created a database that includes all of the prospect rankings from Baseball America, Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein. I didn't have a direct purpose for it, I'm just the type of person who likes to accumulate as much data as possible. So it sat around on my computer until I found a good use for it. Well, thanks to fantasy baseball and Starling Marte's horrible 3.8% walk rate in AA last season, I have. Marte is a possible target in my dynasty minor league draft and I wanted to see what other prospects had poor walk rates and how successful they were in their careers.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Method</b></span><br />
In interest of saving digital space (and your scrolling finger), I will only post the full method on the Rookie and Low-A edition of this series.<br />
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<b style="font-size: x-large;">History</b><br />
<a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/02/what-do-minor-league-walk-and-strikeout.html">Rookie and Low-A</a><br />
<a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/02/what-do-minor-league-walk-and-strikeout_23.html">Single-A</a><br />
<a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/what-do-minor-league-walk-and-strikeout.html">Advanced-A</a><br />
<a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/what-do-minor-league-walk-and-strikeout_06.html">Double-A</a><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Triple-A</b></span><br />
389 of the 480 prospects in this dataset accumulated at least 150 plate appearances in Triple-A. 19% were successful, 20% were average and 61% were busts. This is close to the overall 21/21/58 trend for all prospects.<br />
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<b>Walks</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><a name='more'></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2jw3Wkbt6ijHdXPgJFVnBnjBONc5mdfIC7ZwoawRi4FSZ8Qr7KfSyZ7zgNpyIRpNiXyCj1FgS5RW6BuMmUI6PKUuuW8oyl98QBqtAEWiDa18raKaMR_0n6izEP77vqKIFkzN-VV0NWOdq/s1600/AAABBTables.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2jw3Wkbt6ijHdXPgJFVnBnjBONc5mdfIC7ZwoawRi4FSZ8Qr7KfSyZ7zgNpyIRpNiXyCj1FgS5RW6BuMmUI6PKUuuW8oyl98QBqtAEWiDa18raKaMR_0n6izEP77vqKIFkzN-VV0NWOdq/s320/AAABBTables.jpg" width="258" /></a></div><br />
58 prospects had below average walk rates in Triple-A and only seven of them turned into productive hitters (Juan Gonzalez, Magglio Ordonez, Alfonso Soriano, Raul Mondesi, Javy Lopez, Eric Chavez, Glenallen Hill). The two prospects with very low walk rates were Aaron Hill and Matt Moses. Hill has been an serviceable second baseman thus far in his career, but his value (apart from 2009) has not been in his bat.<br />
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42% of the players with higher than average Triple-A walk rates become productive hitters. Only 38% were busts. That is the best percentage of this entire series. Three players with very high Triple-A walk rates were busts: Cliff Pennington, Kerwin Moore and Willie Ansley. Pennington, like Hill, is not a typical bust. Both his total PA and Batting Runs/PA fall just short of the Average/Bust cutoff.<br />
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<b>Correlation to MLB</b><br />
This graph shows the correlation between Triple-A and MLB walk rates.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAJANNf1HDdIhYAGsw6eb14c-nZvzBvXONMwCi9loJOid2vVnkGK6QRRpQx1OGm0K8W3EqxHf8hIg9trCtMK4G5guqMnmjR1H52EyMFlVDO7q-Aoy9HvdVGX4Og2KaCU_HbxwSjGV7nLIk/s1600/AAABBChart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAJANNf1HDdIhYAGsw6eb14c-nZvzBvXONMwCi9loJOid2vVnkGK6QRRpQx1OGm0K8W3EqxHf8hIg9trCtMK4G5guqMnmjR1H52EyMFlVDO7q-Aoy9HvdVGX4Og2KaCU_HbxwSjGV7nLIk/s320/AAABBChart.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><i>Click to enlarge</i></div><br />
<b>2007-2012 Prospects</b><br />
<span style="color: lime;">High Walk Rate: </span>Austin Jackson, Brandon Belt, Kyle Blanks, Carlos Santana, Justin Smoak, Alex Gordon, Evan Longoria, Billy Butler, Kurt Suzuki, Daric Barton, Brandon Allen<br />
<span style="color: red;">Low Walk Rate: </span>Erick Aybar, Tyler Colvin, Delmon Young, Chin-Lung Hu, Wilson Ramos, Brent Morel, Chris Heisey, Eduardo Escobar, Thomas Neal, Jose Iglesias<br />
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<b>Strikeouts</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjwa-iJj5SRPAjXmkiMlQC1ZHPb-ZcA_WRlO7yy3Z7POgbI-nedp18MIe9foRnpbX8hccVNu155kl37nWK3I1K65r8IKMjymqEezih9kn9HqiOhLAC1UwDE55BiqJ89vNk7ma4rvMGmQL_/s1600/AAAKTables.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjwa-iJj5SRPAjXmkiMlQC1ZHPb-ZcA_WRlO7yy3Z7POgbI-nedp18MIe9foRnpbX8hccVNu155kl37nWK3I1K65r8IKMjymqEezih9kn9HqiOhLAC1UwDE55BiqJ89vNk7ma4rvMGmQL_/s320/AAAKTables.jpg" width="258" /></a></div><br />
After rising at each successive level (7.5%, 14%, 20%), the amount of productive hitters with high strikeout rates fell to 16% in Triple-A. The lone productive hitter with a very high Triple-A strikeout rate was Russell Branyan. Just 18% of the hitters with low strikeout rates were productive, leaving the average category as the best option.<br />
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<b>2007-2012 Prospects</b><br />
<span style="color: red;">High Strikeout Rate: </span>Sean Rodriguez, Greg Halman, Taylor Teagarden, Austin Jackson, Brett Jackson, Trayvon Robinson, Tyler Flowers, Fernando Perez, Chris Heisey, Pedro Alvarez, Tyler Colvin<br />
<span style="color: lime;">Low Strikeout Rate: </span>Jacoby Ellsbury, Miguel Montero, David Cooper, Angel Salome, Michael Brantley, Billy Butler, Alberto Callaspo, Carlos Gonzalez, Andy LaRoche, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Julio Borbon<br />
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<b>Correlation to MLB</b><br />
This graph shows the correlation between Triple-A and MLB strikeout rates.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgleCamHvJMuuHOuyWxF4VmWnm0ZFQBD6iQqnBmAcrxpmsa2cPj9jpmW5yk_RH9_i8bQJuNcSke4KFNn7mwNMOwYitH8lOY2M9Wim-rg1_JZoFSSF_SZmB5elbcpVWbsrM6y8XsHeH-XTCF/s1600/AAAKChart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgleCamHvJMuuHOuyWxF4VmWnm0ZFQBD6iQqnBmAcrxpmsa2cPj9jpmW5yk_RH9_i8bQJuNcSke4KFNn7mwNMOwYitH8lOY2M9Wim-rg1_JZoFSSF_SZmB5elbcpVWbsrM6y8XsHeH-XTCF/s320/AAAKChart.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><i>Click to enlarge</i></div><br />
<b>Strikeout to Walk Ratio</b><br />
Finally, this plot shows the relationship between Triple-A K/BB and Major League Batting Runs per Plate Appearance:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij3g7mV8qcUy2El_S7sFOBby8EyFgfFQ4uUvwHFF4vEstVLktemYytN9A42nnOptsuJeTpzIMPCgtyB50zrAXEj5XImtDT5wY6dRvd8FmyvoUxo_8hb_IjscLtcOiKuWNI6UWutLMWtLSJ/s1600/AAAKBBChart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij3g7mV8qcUy2El_S7sFOBby8EyFgfFQ4uUvwHFF4vEstVLktemYytN9A42nnOptsuJeTpzIMPCgtyB50zrAXEj5XImtDT5wY6dRvd8FmyvoUxo_8hb_IjscLtcOiKuWNI6UWutLMWtLSJ/s320/AAAKBBChart.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><i>Click to Enlarge</i></div><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Conclusion</b></span><br />
Walk and strikeout rates are most closely correlated between Triple-A and the Major Leagues (surprise!). The best harbinger for a prospect's success is a high walk rate in Triple-A. High strikeout players in Triple-A don't pan out as well as those in Double-A. I'll finish this series with a wrap-up post and hopefully dig a little deeper into finding out what makes a productive hitting prospect.<br />
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If you would like to know anything specific about the data, you can contact me in the comments section below or on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/stealofhome">@stealofhome</a>.Chris St. Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03346868654558458088noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-46005840163740002982012-03-12T09:41:00.000-05:002012-03-12T09:41:59.624-05:00The Hall of Very Good<div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX6asXJdz1kcMBx02OiCzFUFphW9XAxa11T6M_7pZBRf7-eIfQ40r6obvyZAYjIRSay3Qb8dOIHnFJOVdBh0lM_8e4ZTD_dD0b6HRw2s1_3zK1jg_6K4ytrs_yjFOz8sv_5C05ahvCAg0A/s1600/HoVG.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhX6asXJdz1kcMBx02OiCzFUFphW9XAxa11T6M_7pZBRf7-eIfQ40r6obvyZAYjIRSay3Qb8dOIHnFJOVdBh0lM_8e4ZTD_dD0b6HRw2s1_3zK1jg_6K4ytrs_yjFOz8sv_5C05ahvCAg0A/s400/HoVG.png" width="308" /></a>You're here because you like baseball. You're also here because you have some advanced mastery of the Internet as well, which means you probably have all sorts of fancy technology that you can use to read ebooks. And you're here at The Platoon Advantage either by complete accident or because you actually like the things that we write here. </div>
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Whatever the confluence of events that have brought you to click this link, I just wanted to bring your attention to a project that is on <a href="http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/skykalkman/hall-of-very-good?ref=live">Kickstarter</a> that involves some of the best writers in baseball...and for some reason the Platoon Advantage. </div>
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The <a href="http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/skykalkman/hall-of-very-good?ref=live">Hall of Very Good</a> (HoVG if you're hip) is an exciting ebook project started by <a href="http://www.twitter.com/Marc_Normandin">Marc Normandin</a> (of SB Nation and Baseball Prospectus fame) and <a href="http://www.twitter.com/Sky_Kalkman">Sky Kalkman</a> (ESPN, Fangraphs, The Hardball Times) and the ebook will be a collection of essays by writers about players whose careers deserve to be celebrated, but for a variety of reasons have not been. </div>
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div style="background-color: white; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font: inherit; font: inherit; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 20px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;">
<b style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-weight: bold; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Hall of Very Good</b> is an ebook meant to celebrate the careers of those who are not celebrated. It's not a book meant to reopen arguments about who does and does not deserve Hall of Fame enshrinement; rather, it's meant to remember those who, failing entrance into Cooperstown, will unfairly be lost to history. It's for the players we grew up rooting for, the ones whose best years led to flags and memories that will fly together forever. Players like Bret Saberhagen, Will Clark, Dwight Evans, Tim Salmon, Wilbur Wood, Orel Hershiser, and literally hundreds of others. </div>
<div style="background-color: white; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font: inherit; font: inherit; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 20px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;">
This is not a numbers-driven project (although our contributors lean analytical in their views). Our plan isn't to be overbearing with numbers and spreadsheets to convince you that these players are worth remembering. What we want to do, instead, is accomplish that same task through stories. Think of your favorite players growing up: they have their moments, games, seasons, quirks, personalities, and legends worth remembering and sharing. Now, combine the best of everyone's forgotten favorites, and you've got a Hall of Very Good. Ask the people who have those memories and love for these players to write essays about them, and you have a book on the same topic.</div>
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Normandin and Kalkman launched the Kickstarter and within four days they nearly doubled their goal and have since surpassed their goal of $3,000 to start the project by 244%. So, this project is definitely happening and the Kickstarter remains open for 11 more days and there are different levels of funding that get you the opportunity for many exciting things--including an advanced copy of the ebook or your name on the dedication page.<br />
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Not only does the project promise essays on some of the most under celebrated players in history, Normandin and Kalkman have assembled an All-Star cast of writers from places like Baseball Prospectus, Sports Illustrated, New York Magazine, ESPN, NBCSports, Yahoo!, The Classical, Fangraphs, and SBNation....and the Platoon Advantage?<br />
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That's right-- The Common Man, Bill Parker, Jason Wojciechowski, and Cee Angi will all have essays in the Hall of Very Good, which is just another reason to check out this project (or because you like reading things by those more professional than us like Joe Posnanski). Whatever your reason, you will want to have this collection of essays (available in PDF and EPUB formats). Period.<br />
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If you buy a copy of the Hall of Very Good, you'll get to read essays from the following celebrated writers:<br />
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<ul style="background-color: white; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font: inherit; font: inherit; line-height: 20px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">R.J. Anderson<span style="background-color: transparent;"> </span><span style="background-color: transparent;"> </span></li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<ul style="background-color: white; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font: inherit; font: inherit; line-height: 20px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Cee Angi</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<ul style="background-color: white; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font: inherit; font: inherit; line-height: 20px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Tommy Bennett</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ted Berg</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jon Bernhardt</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jon Bois</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Grant Brisbee</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Dave Brown</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Craig Calcaterra</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Carson Cistulli</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Cliff Corcoran</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Chad Finn</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Steven Goldman</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Owen Good</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jay Jaffe</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Christina Kahrl</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">King Kaufman</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Matthew Kory</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Will Leitch</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ben Lindbergh</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Sam Miller</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Rob Neyer</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Eric Nusbaum</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Bill Parker</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jason Parks</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jeff Passan</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Joe Posnanski</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Old Hoss Radbourn </li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<ul style="background-color: white; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font: inherit; font: inherit; line-height: 20px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">David Raposa</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<ul style="background-color: white; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #666666; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font: inherit; font: inherit; line-height: 20px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">David Roth</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jon Sciambi</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Emma Span</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Cecilia Tan</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Common Man</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Wendy Thurm</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jon Weisman</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Josh Wilker</li>
<li style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: inherit; font: inherit; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 30px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jason Wojciechowski</li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
The list of contributors continues to grow as the Kickstarter funding increases, so the more of you that support the project, the more essays about under celebrated players there will be-- but you only have 11 more days before the Kickstarter expires. So, <a href="http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/skykalkman/hall-of-very-good?ref=live">go check out the project (there's a video!)</a>, give them your money, and wait for the magic to happen.<br />
<br />
<br />Cee Angihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02635224421016465906noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-20179749889477506832012-03-09T10:00:00.000-06:002012-03-09T13:37:11.283-06:00The Path to Respectability: Kansas City Royals<p><strong>by Jason Wojciechowski</strong></p>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;
margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0"
src="http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3430/3954602506_a4ba8a33da_d.jpg" width="350"
/></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Remind me to tell you the story<br />
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/auvet/3954602506/">Photo by Jimmy
Emerson</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>Yesterday, <a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/path-to-respectability-
baltimore.html">I looked at how we could get the Orioles to 88 wins in 2012</a>. It wasn't
easy, but with a little optimism here and there, we got there. Today, it's Kansas City's
turn.</p>
<p>The thing about the Royals, who <em>Baseball Prospectus</em> projects to 71
wins, one fewer than the Orioles, is that their division doesn't have the behemoths that the
East does. Detroit looks formidable, certainly, with boppers in the lineup and Justin
Verlander on the mound, but they're not the Yankees, and behind Detroit, the Central isn't
so pretty. Cleveland or Chicago is probably the second-best team in the stack, and
nobody thinks that either squad will be fighting for a Wild Card come September, even
with Bud Selig's Great Expanded Playoff Adventure coming to pass. Eighty-eight wins
might, as we'll see, look unreasonable for the Royals, but it could, if things fall right,
actually get the team into the playoffs. (<em>BP</em> has the Tigers projected to 86
wins, a number that might look low to you until you consider the team's outfield, a crew
that makes up a full 1/3 of the batting lineup in any game.)</p>
<p>Like yesterday, I'm starting off cheap: the Royals get five wins on run-distribution luck,
jumping them all the way to 76. Unlike with the Orioles, I don't see an obvious trade for
the Royals to make to shore up a particular position. Any team could trade for a starting
pitcher at any time, of course, but figuring that a team will make that kind of move is
boring for the purposes of this exercise. So let's try to find twelve wins on the roster as it
stands.</p>
<a name='more'></a>
<p>First, the pitching. As with the Orioles, PECOTA does not like the rotation. The best
ERA projection in the group is <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchjo01.shtml">Jonathan Sanchez</a>, and even his 4.45 figure works out to
just 1.0 WARP over the course of the year. Sanchez, though, has done better work than
that in the past -- his 3.07 ERA in 2010 may not have been entirely earned, as his FIP
was nearly a run higher, but that was surely the result of good karma, as his 2008 year
saw his ERA finish over five despite a 3.83 FIP. In those years, Sanchez was a 2+-
WARP pitcher. If you believe in even-odd trends, or if you just think that Sanchez is over
the ankle and shoulder injuries that saw him spend 80 days on the Disabled List in 2011,
figuring him for two WARP instead of one sounds entirely reasonable. Royals subtotal:
77.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hochelu01.shtml">Luke Hochevar</a> has struggled to live up to his promise, to say the least. His best
season in the bigs was 2011, when he still managed just 1.7 WARP in 198 innings.
PECOTA sees a regression all the way to 0.4 WARP despite 200 innings, which isn't
unfair: Hochevar had 387 2/3 innings in the major leagues over 3+ seasons that said he
was a crummy pitcher before he tried to show the world in 2011 that he was more like a
semi-useful pitcher who could help a team at the back end of a rotation. Still, he's just 28
and he was, after all, a big-time draft pick. Granted, he never performed in the minors,
either, but maybe there's <em>something</em> left in his arm such that he can repeat his
2011. Let's say he's more of a one-and-a-half-win player than a half-win player. Royals
subtotal: 78.</p>
<p>The back end of the rotation is about what you'd expect from a team in Kansas City's
situation. Nobody's quite sure who's going to pitch there, and we shouldn't really consider
the Spring Training winner any kind of permanent solution. The available hurlers run the
gamut from top prospect Mike Montgomery to barely-hanging-on <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mazzavi01.shtml">Vin Mazzaro</a>.
<em>Someone</em> out of this crew must be able to post something as modest as 1.5
WARP, right? <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/managers/yostne01.shtml">Ned Yost</a> has a whole bunch of spaghetti in his pot. He doesn't have to
know which one sticks to the wall, but one of them should. Add that 1.5 to the basically-
nothing that the team is getting from the last spots in the rotation now, and the subtotal
stands at 79.5.</p>
<p>That's all I can reasonably squeeze out of the pitching. The bullpen, weirdly, looks
top-notch. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/soriajo01.shtml">Joakim Soria</a> is, of course, one of the best closers in the game, and Greg
Holland and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/broxtjo01.shtml">Jonathan Broxton</a> (to the extent that the latter is healthy) should be well-
above-average relievers. Even mighty mite <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colliti01.shtml">Tim Collins</a> and out-of-nowhere Louis
Coleman are likely good contributors. The Royals could be a dangerous seller of bullpen
arms at the trading deadline, though this is all an aside from the main point.</p>
<p>Up among the position players, we can start with the battery-mate, the man with the
most inexplicable long-term deal in the game, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezsa02.shtml">Salvador Perez</a>. The 22-year-old hit the
snot out of the ball in 158 PAs last season, leading to a full-season pace of something
like 3.5 WARP. ("Full season" for a catcher, I mean.) Expecting that level of performance
would be a bit much because Perez was pretty lightly regarded with the bat on the way
up the chain. Still, if Perez is only half that good (1.8 WARP), which is certainly plausible,
especially given his defensive reputation, he'll be a 1.5-win upgrade on what PECOTA
projects, putting the subtotal at 81 wins.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/giavojo01.shtml">Johnny Giavotella</a> has dreams of being <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pedrodu01.shtml">Dustin Pedroia</a>, though he didn't hit in his
major-league trial of 187 PA last year, likely due in no small part to taking just six walks in
that span. His walk rates ranged from solid to good in the minors, though, so perhaps he
can get himself back under control at the plate, regain his gap power, and post a league-
average season. Keeping his defense right around average will be important, too, as
that's the major knock on him. He's just 24, though, so if we figure in some coaching in
the field and some relaxation at the plate, we can see a two-win season for Giavotella
without too much strain, a one-win upgrade on PECOTA's figure. This pushes the
subtotal to 82.</p>
<p>Staying on the right side of the infield, we find <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hosmeer01.shtml">Eric Hosmer</a>, a top first-base prospect
who hit .293/.334/.465 last season. That power is adequate, but the on-base percentage
is not, or it's not for a player who is supposed to be a cornerstone rather than just a
contributor. PECOTA figures him for a very similar season at the plate, but the key here is
defense. FRAA doesn't like his work afield, rating him at -7 runs last year, which leads to
a -2 fielding projection. The scouting reports, however, are quite good, so if Hosmer is
actually an ace first baseman worth, say, +8 runs on defense, then his projection, even
with the same bat, suddenly comes out to 2.6 WARP instead of 1.6. Adding ten runs to
his offense isn't so hard -- if he hits .300/.350/.470, hardly out of reach for a hitter of such
repute as Hosmer, he'll gain a win over his current projection. An extra win apiece on
offense and defense, and the subtotal is all the way up to 84.</p>
<p>For the final four wins, we turn to the outfield. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francje02.shtml">Jeff Francoeur</a> and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gordoal01.shtml">Alex Gordon</a>
couldn't have more disparate projections, with the former not rating as a starting-caliber
player (0.6 WARP in 507 PAs) and the latter looking like a star (3.7 in 715). What they
share, though, is that their projections call for vast givebacks compared to breakout age-
27 2011 seasons that saw Francoeur shoot past even his best Braves year (2007) and
Gordon put up MVP numbers. Let's take the easy one first: Gordon posted 7.2 WARP last
year, but PECOTA sees 3.7 this season. If Gordon has finally found himself in the
outfield, no longer hurt, no longer jerked around, then we can give him real star numbers
at the same time that we assume he'll never be a seven-win player again -- instead of 3.7
wins, let's figure Gordon for an entirely reasonable 4.7.</p>
<p>The tougher task is <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francje02.shtml">Jeff Francoeur</a>, because I'm going to put the entire remaining
three runs the Royals need to achieve 88 on him. As with Hosmer, we can start with
defense -- Francoeur was rated +7 runs in right field by FRAA last season, but a mixed
history, including a -7 in 3/4 of a year in New York, has PECOTA projecting him to be just
average with the glove. He's well-regarded out there, though, and did have a good FRAA
year in 2007, so I think he can put up +5 in the field instead of +0. This means we only
have to get 25 more runs out of him on offense. On that, Francoeur has had good times at
the plate in the past: his partial seasons in 2005 and 2009 with the Braves and Mets were
the equal of his year in Kansas City. If he can just do that again, and if he can do it over a
full season rather than the 500 PAs that <em>BP</em> has him down for, he'll add those
25 runs we're looking for to the weak +5 VORP that PECOTA sees and push the Royals
right to the 88-win line. What could be more reasonable than asking a player to do again
what he's already done twice? (Sorta twice. Twice in two partial seasons. So once.
Including half a time that was seven years ago, before anyone knew how to pitch to him.
Hush now.)</p>
<p>As yesterday, the caveat is that this is all addition. If anybody ends up subtracted, the
88 wins go out the window. If <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cainlo01.shtml">Lorenzo Cain</a> can't be useful in center, if <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moustmi01.shtml">Mike Moustakas</a>
disappoints, if <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/betanyu01.shtml">Yuniesky Betancourt</a> even <em>sees</em> the field, the good ship Royal
goes down in flames.</p>
<p>Still, there's something pleasingly plausible about all this. With the Orioles, I had, for
instance, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/markani01.shtml">Nick Markakis</a> returning to his glory years and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirma02.shtml">Manny Ramirez</a> being traded to
The Land of Boog. Here, though, I'm asking some very young players, good prospects, to
take a step forward, and I'm asking some other not-very-young-but-still-young players to
not regress as hard from recent good years. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francje02.shtml">Jeff Francoeur</a> is the toughest, because the
possibility that he can't even be modestly above-replacement is all too real. Asking him to
be a 3.5-win player might be a bridge too far.</p>
<p>Still, you could probably be more creative than me and push Francoeur's extra WARP
around to some other places (<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/butlebi03.shtml">Billy Butler</a>? Moustakas?) to get a result more to your liking,
so if I'm ranking the likelihood of these scenarios as I go, I'm going to have to put it this
way:</p>
<ol>
<li>Kansas City</li>
<li>Baltimore</li>
</ol>
<p>With the Twins taken care of by Bill (as explained in the Baltimore post), the Mariners
will be up next.</p>Jason Wojciechowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16935366214824790506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-81022293166211414552012-03-08T10:13:00.000-06:002012-03-08T10:13:20.326-06:00The Show Goes On<strong>By The Common Man</strong><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none; clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://download.gamezone.com/uploads/image/data/875410/MLB12TheShowBoxArt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; cssfloat: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320px" src="http://download.gamezone.com/uploads/image/data/875410/MLB12TheShowBoxArt.jpg" width="252px" yda="true" /></a></div>The Common Man did not plan to buy MLB12: The Show this year. He bought and enjoyed last year’s version (when the Twins were much, much better), and didn’t see the need to shell out $60 to stop living with the lie that Vernon Wells is a good player and that Justin Morneau’s career wasn’t in jeopardy. Plus, there were some truly annoying features of the game that TCM had trouble ignoring. Namely, the baserunning in Road to the Show is incredibly boring, the Franchise mode is bogged down by tedious and mundane details, and the minor league system of having to continually re-sign players makes very little sense.<br />
<br />
<br />
Then he started hearing good things. Namely, that <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/21368/review-mlb-12-the-show-better-than-ever">Steve Berthiaume loved it</a>. Bert is a good dude who, despite his well-documented weakness in picking NL Central champions, plays video games openly and unrepentantly. That endears him to me. He’s been addicted to The Show for years, and so was sent an early copy. He was ecstatic that, <br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">“The game's programmers have completely replaced last year's code and thus changed the way the baseball behaves with what they call True Ball Physics, which uses actual math for a spinning baseball that ricochets off bases, the pitching rubber and other field surfaces. The spin of the baseball off the bat is now accurate with realistic RPMs and the ball gains or loses energy like a real baseball, resulting in more hit type varieties. Line drives rise or sink and infield chops quickly become difficult to handle.”</blockquote>That sounded very promising. So, on Tuesday night, TCM stopped at Target on the way home and bought it, and over the last two nights, after washing the dishes and putting the kids to bed, TCM has played around with it in both Road to the Show and Franchise modes as an “experienced” player and using a standard controller (you can also use PS3 Move, if you have it). Here are the game’s features, and TCM’s reaction to them:<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<br />
<strong>True Ball Physics</strong><br />
<br />
<ul><li>This is what Berthiaume is referring to above. And he’s right about the ball behaving differently. Which is kind of neat.</li>
<li>However, it really didn’t seem to impact the game as much as Bert implies it does. TCM had no trouble fielding as a shortstop, and fielding as an outfielder wasn’t really that much more challenging. </li>
</ul><strong>Baserunning</strong><br />
<br />
<ul><li>Last year’s baserunning in RttS made it very hard to steal second base because of the time it took to build up your runner’s momentum. But it was ridiculously east to steal third base, especially when the pitcher was trying to pick you off second. Both of those problems seem to have been fixed.</li>
<li>However, the rest of the baserunning still sucks. You stand on first base for pitch after pitch after pitch, while the batter at the plate can’t get anything done. You don’t even lose points for being picked off. Life would be better if subsequent batters only got one pitch (or two if you wanted a chance to steal, to either walk, strike out, or hit the ball so that the game’s momentum wouldn’t be slowed down.</li>
<li>Also, the baserunning A.I. could be greatly improved. TCM had his 3B coach call for a hit and run with runners on first and third in extra innings. The batter missed the pitch, and the runner on third was out by a mile. Hitting and running with the runner on third? Have the programmers ever seen a baseball game?</li>
</ul><strong>New music</strong><br />
<br />
<ul><li>TCM cannot stress how tired he was of the old music on MLB11. </li>
<li>That said, he anticipates being just as sick of this music by next year. Can we get a music patch every couple of months?</li>
</ul><strong>Roster updates</strong><br />
<br />
<ul><li>Yes, it’s nice that Vernon Wells isn’t considered a star anymore. Hooray for Mike Napoli getting his due. </li>
<li>But does that really change the experience all that greatly? No, it doesn’t, especially in Road to the Show.</li>
</ul><strong>Pulse pitching and Zone Analog Hitting</strong><br />
<br />
<ul><li>The new pitching system consists of a rapidly expanding and shrinking circle, which moves differently for each pitcher and each pitch that pitcher throws. The smaller it is when you hit X, the less variability there is regarding your pitch’s speed and location. You’d think that would be a huge draw, with the introduction of some randomness and legitimate difficulty into the pitching. But the circle moves with seizure inducing speed and is just unpleasant to watch. Frankly, it’s obnoxious.</li>
<li>Last year, The Show used the right analog stick to control your swing. This year, you can use the left analog stick to control your swing’s location, while using the right analog stick to swing. It is…difficult.</li>
<li>However, as Bert points out in his review, all of this can be turned off. The Show can be a button mashing game again, and you can use or combine virtually any of the game’s old pitching and hitting systems to make your life easier. Why introduce these new, profoundly unpleasant, systems? Was there a single person at Sony Entertainment who actually preferred the new ones? No clue, but it’s hard to imagine.</li>
</ul><strong>Better training sessions</strong><br />
<br />
<ul><li>The training sessions in Road to the Show are much improved, with more variation and different goals attached to different skills. This makes it much more challenging to improve your reaction time, for instance, and can also help you improve your throwing arm in addition to your fielding ability. </li>
<li>But…no buts, this is great.</li>
</ul><strong>Road to the Show</strong><br />
<br />
<ul><li>For new players, this is The Show's central feature, a role-playing component that allows you to create and play as a minor leaguer, building up your skills on the way to the Hall of Fame.</li>
<li>Your player is automatically a prospect and a starter in Double-A, which is nice. It gives you some playing time security as you try to upgrade your player.</li>
<li>Again, no buts. This is a good thing. While it eliminates some risk if you start to suck and some of the sense of accomplishment you can feel when you succeed (yes, TCM realizes how ridiculous that sounds), it essentially gives you more playing time, which means more fun for you.</li>
</ul><strong>Franchise Mode</strong><br />
<br />
<ul><li>Nothing has changed, really. You are still stuck with having to ignore your team’s budget altogether or having to delve into the incredibly mundane minutiae of scheduling ticket promotions, managing advertising campaigns, improving the services and attractions at your ballpark, and selecting TV and radio contracts. Woo. Look, if TCM wanted to manage all that stuff, he’d play SimCity: Baseball Team Edition. All he wants is to control trades, free agent signings, the amateur draft, lineups, call ups to the Majors, and the 40 man roster (which, by the way, you still can’t sort by position, dammit). Everything else should be automated. Also, why is The Common Man having to sign new draft picks to two year contracts? Just give minor leaguers a standard minor league contract that doesn’t impact the team’s Major League Budget, and give new draftees signing bonuses that do come out of that budget. Also, where are the international signings, or is TCM just missing that entirely? The Common Man wants to dominate the German and Aruban markets. Franchise mode is, by far, the biggest weakness in this game.</li>
</ul><strong>Graphics</strong><br />
<ul><li>They're perhaps even sharper than before. Especially in between the action, as you watch player's reacting and moving around.</li>
</ul><strong>Diamond Dynasty</strong><br />
<br />
<ul><li>Apparently, this allows you to build your own team online with real and fictional players, customizable uniforms, and stadiums, and join online leagues. TCM didn’t play this, and can’t speak to it.</li>
</ul>In all, while TCM thinks the game is marginally better than last year, he can’t say he’s really glad that he spent the money to buy it. It still is the best baseball game on the market, but the improvements are not worth the money, nor do they cover over significant flaws in the game. TCM would have been almost as happy sitting at home and playing MLB11, and putting the $60 toward Skyrim. In fact, that’s probably what you should do too.The Common Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09994070642805307798noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-78317689682011292172012-03-08T10:00:00.000-06:002012-03-08T10:00:04.258-06:00The Path to Respectability: Baltimore Orioles<p><strong>by Jason Wojciechowski</strong></p>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">om nom nom nom nom<br />
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/67955827@N00/2114110206/">Photo by Paula McVann</a></td></tr>
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<p>I know I'm Dr. Negativo most of the time (I was born this way), but <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16164">Bill's piece at <em>Baseball Prospectus</em> yesterday</a> illustrating things that could go right for the Twins has inspired me. Over the next N days for some yet-to-be-determined N, I'm going to look at the worst team in each division and try to figure out how they might get to 88 wins. It's a modest goal for a good team, but these aren't good teams. It probably wouldn't even get AL East or AL West team into the playoffs, given the potential 95-100-win powerhouses at the tops of those divisions, but it would at least put the erstwhile bottom-feeder into the competition.</p>
<p>Where there is a clear worst team (like the Orioles in the AL East), I'll just go with them. Where there are multiple good choices, I won't choose: I'll do a post for each team. I will omit the Twins, though, because it's not like I have anything to say that Bill didn't already, and his piece is not behind the <em>Prospectus</em> pay-wall, so you can all read it even if you don't subscribe. (You should subscribe.)</p>
<a name='more'></a>
<p>My baseline is going to be the current PECOTA/BP depth chart standings <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/">found here</a> for subscribers. I'll give myself +5 wins right off the bat for general team luck. Maybe that's cheating, but I'm doing it anyway. Luck happens, +5 is relatively modest luck, and I'm looking to build an 88-win team, not an 88-win-talent team.</p>
<p>Today, we start with the Orioles, who are projected to a 72-90 record at the moment. Giving them +5 for luck means we need to find eleven more wins.</p>
<p>The obvious place to start is the pitching staff. PECOTA sees an entire starting rotation that can't even crack 1.0 WARP despite Zach Britton, Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, and Chris Tillman all having been highly regarded to some degree or another at some point in their careers. What if instead of a crappy season, Britton is merely mediocre and posts 1.0 WARP, and Arrieta not only pitches better than the 4.6 ERA that PECOTA sees, but also pitches 180 innings instead of 108, so that he winds up at about 1.4 WARP? That's +2 easy wins in the starting rotation without even having to make any of the starters a <em>good</em> pitcher. I'm just raising 40% of the rotation to some degree of competence.</p>
<p>The designated hitter spot is a mess for Baltimore. Suppose that the team goes on a tear in the early part of the year and thus looks to bolster the lineup for the stretch run. They acquire Manny Ramirez from the A's, who's shown signs that he can still hit like a Hall-of-Famer but who has turned out to be blocked at DH by Chris Carter's breakout season (a Chris Carter breakout season will be an integral part of getting the A's to 88 wins). He comes to Baltimore in late June and produces 2.0 WARP from there on out. It's not clear who loses playing time as a result because of the rotating cast that will have been playing the position up to that point. If you figure that every time Mark Reynolds starts at DH, that means Robert Andino is starting at third, though, you can see that the players who will be sitting for Manny aren't top-notch guys. Call this a +1.5 improvement.</p>
<p>Catchers have a reputation for developing slower than other players, a reputation that I'm fairly certain is backed up by research. Matt Wieters is still just 26, so it might even be too early for him to fulfill the promise he flashed in the minors in 2008, but if he hits like his 90th percentile PECOTA projection, in the .300/.370/.470 range, then he's a 4.5-win player instead of the ~2 WARP that represents his weighted mean projection. .300/.370/.470 is so elite for a catcher that this is perhaps greedy, but if there's any catcher who could make the leap from "average to above average" all the way to "legitimate star," it's Wieters. +2.5 improvement.</p>
<p>Nick Markakis is what he is: a corner outfielder who played last year at 27 and who has seen his slugging percentage drop every year since 2008, from .491 down to just .406 last season. The man has talent, though (at least with the bat -- he's put up negative FRAA figures in right field each year since 2007), so instead of being basically a league-average player in 2012, perhaps he can return to the heights of 2008, ripping doubles, knocking 20 homers , walking, and generally being an offensive force. A return to form from The Greek could be worth 2.5 wins.</p>
<p>That's +8.5 wins on the big stuff. Finding the other 2.5 is relatively easy by adding in little bits here and there.</p>
<p>Endy Chavez is aging, but I bet he can still rob homers with the best of them, especially compared to the average left-fielder. Let's add +5 runs to his defense. If Brian Roberts stays healthier (not <em>healthy</em>, but enough that he gets 500 PAs instead of the 377 he's now being accounted in the depth chart), that's about another +5 runs compared to, say, Ryan Adams. Adam Jones jumped from basically a .270 TAv in 2009-10 to a little over .280 in 2011. PECOTA, as projection systems do, figures he'll give back those gains in 2012. If he doesn't, that's a ten-run gain over the projection.</p>
<p>The last five runs can come from the bullpen. If Alfredo Simon is identified as a problem and cut early, before he can do a full season's worth of damage, with Darren O'Day getting his innings, that's probably five runs right there. Even if it's not, tiny improvements from Jim Johnson or Matt Lindstrom or whoever can add up to that.</p>
<p>There you have it: 88 wins. There's some implausibility here, obviously. Matt Wieters is unlikely to make that leap, and Nick Markakis's star days are surely done. Further, this type of WARP-adding is a matter not just of being optimistic about certain guys -- it's about figuring that nobody else will <em>under</em>perform their projections. What if, for instance, Mark Reynolds is a one-win player instead of being worth two? Or if Chris Davis is such a disaster that he adds no value at all, gets sent down, and basically has his performance replaced by Matt Antonelli? What if J.J. Hardy gets hurt?</p>
<p>Still, I'd like to think (not so much as an Orioles fan, but as someone who doesn't find mediocrity very interesting) that the scenarios here for where improvement can come from aren't so far-fetched as to be laughable. Of course, as I referred to in the opening, 88 wins probably doesn't get the Orioles anywhere in the East anyway. Even noting that many of these extra wins will likely come at the expense of their AL East brethren, Baltimore in this situation would probably still be fighting for the second wild card spot, not a division title.</p>Jason Wojciechowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16935366214824790506noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-1183263472787627752012-03-07T10:00:00.000-06:002012-03-07T10:00:00.519-06:00Corey Hart's knee and the NL Central<p><strong>by Jason Wojciechowski</strong></p>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Buuuuuuuuuu<br />
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/afagen/3804143566/">Photo by Adam
Fagen</a></td></tr>
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<p>The N.L. Central seems like a weird place. The cities involved are a mix of rust belt,
beer towns, and major metropolises, the teams a mishmash of ancient storied franchises
and relative new kids on the block, the front offices running the gamut from extremely
nerd-friendly (Chicago, Houston) to having a rep for being old-school (Walt Jocketty in
Cincinnati, though this is neither a criticism nor a complete description -- he worked under
Sandy Alderson in Oakland, after all, and, more importantly, he's amassed a record of
success that makes the process-oriented questions moot).</p>
<p>Just this off-season, the division has been home to two major player defections
(<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml">Albert Pujols</a> to Anaheim and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fieldpr01.shtml">Prince Fielder</a> to Detroit), two major front-office changes
(Jeff Luhnow to Houston and Theo Epstein (and company) to Chicago), one major trade
(<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/latosma01.shtml">Mat Latos</a> to Cincinnati), and ... well, I'm trying to come up with something for the Pirates.
I guess they acquired <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burnea.01.shtml">A.J. Burnett</a>. Or they signed <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml">Andrew McCutchen</a> to a long-term
contract.<sup id="fnref:mck"><a href="#fn:mck" rel="footnote">1</a></sup> Or they took a
flier on <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bedarer01.shtml">Erik Bedard</a>. I don't know.</p>
<p>For all that, though, there's something deeply familiar about the way PECOTA sees
the division shaking out this season, with three teams bunched together on top (St. Louis,
of course, along with Cincinnati joining the big boys and Milwaukee maintaining its
recent stature as a contender) and three also-rans, including one team that is the
consensus worst squad in the league (Houston, of course, a team whose starting third
baseman, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/paredji01.shtml">Jimmy Paredes</a>, is projected to be worth a full win <em>below</em>
replacement level). Without looking too hard at recent years' final results, in part because
those are affected by a whole variety of in-season events, luck, and so forth, this seems to
nearly always be the case in this division. The Pirates are a constant at the bottom and
the Cardinals have become something of a constant at the top, but the shifting fortunes of
the four teams in the middle seems not to have resulted in a breakaway favorite with any
frequency.</p>
<p>That bunching at the top, though, makes something like <a
href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/06/Corey Hart-out-3-4-weeks-following-
knee-surgery/"><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hartco01.shtml">Corey Hart's</a> knee surgery</a> that much more important. In the
aggregate, Milwaukee is a lot better situated to lose Hart than, say, <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weeksri01.shtml">Rickie Weeks</a> (who is
backed up by <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/i/izturce01.shtml">Cesar Izturis</a> -- yowch), because they've got <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morgany01.shtml">Nyjer Morgan</a> waiting. The
shape of Morgan's performance is different from Hart's, but they could well be
equivalently valuable players: as PECOTA figures Hart to be worth something like an
extra run every five or six games on offense,<sup id="fnref:calc"><a href="#fn:calc"
rel="footnote">2</a></sup> while eye-balling their FRAA figures from the last few years,
and considering that Morgan has amassed his above-average marks in
<em>center</em> field, you might estimate that Morgan earns that entire difference
back.<sup id="fnref:fo"><a href="#fn:fo" rel="footnote">3</a></sup></p>
<p>You also might not think Morgan's defense makes up the entire gap, and in any case,
when you're talking about Hart maybe missing a week or three games or being ready on
Opening Day but not being 100%, you're at a level where, to paraphrase Joe Sheehan,
variance uber alles. By which I/he just mean/s that anything can happen in a tiny sample.
We can figure the expected runs the team loses with <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hartco01.shtml">Corey Hart's</a> injury, and we can
convert that to an expected number of wins, but we'll be working with fractions, and
baseball in the real world deals in whole numbers. Does Morgan face a hitter that Hart
would have mashed? Does Morgan catch a ball in the gap that Hart would have let roll
past for a double? Does Morgan steal a key base in the ninth inning?</p>
<p>The point being that I'm tempted to write "Hart's injury doesn't change Milwaukee's
playoff aspirations," but I can't bring myself to do it. Even qualifiers don't work for me.
Does the injury "likely" not change anything? Probably? If we get down into the murk of
"probably" and "maybe," then the entire piece becomes even more superfluous than it
already is. So fine. Let me sum it up this way: the Brewers are in a division and league
situation with no margin for error, but, fortunately for them, they have an extremely
capable backup to Hart for as long as he needs to return to full strength after knee surgery
-- so capable, in fact, that there might be no drop in their odds of making the playoffs at
all.</p>
<div class="footnote">
<hr />
<ol>
<li id="fn:mck">
<p>I don't want to minimize the importance of the McCutchen contract, which is very likely
to look extremely team-friendly when we look back on it, but these deals have become
old news, especially when the player is someone like McCutchen, with three years in the
league already. <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moorema02.shtml">Matt Moore</a> or <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezsa02.shtml">Salvador Perez</a> signing deals with like ten major-league
days under their belt? That's exciting. An arbitration buy-out that also eats up a few years
of free agency? Eh, we've seen this film before.
 <a href="#fnref:mck" rev="footnote" title="Jump back to footnote 1 in the
text">↩</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:calc">
<p>Take Hart's .283 projected True Average, convert it to runs by subtracting .260 and
dividing by 0.9 (per instructions of Colin Wyers), resulting in about .025 per plate
appearance. Do the same for <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morgany01.shtml">Nyjer Morgan's</a> and you get about -.011. (These figures are
compared to league average, so a negative isn't literally taking runs off the board.) So
Hart creates about .036 more runs per plate appearance. Figure about five PAs per game
to get .18 per game, and that's 5.6 games to get one run.
 <a href="#fnref:calc" rev="footnote" title="Jump back to footnote 2 in the
text">↩</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:fo">
<p>It's worth asking, as always, whether Milwaukee knows something we don't,
especially as regards defense. As I ran through in the main text, the players look awfully
similar in terms of overall value. (You could also just look at their WARP projections,
which are very nearly equal in approximately equal projected playing time.) Hart, though,
is seen as the every-day right-fielder, while Morgan is some sort of fourth outfielder or
perhaps platoon center-fielder with <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gomezca01.shtml">Carlos Gomez</a>. There are a million possibilities, both
good (something about <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morgany01.shtml">Nyjer Morgan</a> means he'd be stretched as a regular; Morgan's
defense is overrated by FRAA; Hart's is underrated) and bad (the team thinks Hart is
better than he because his power-hitting is seductive; attitude issues). It's not really worth
speculating about, but I think it is important to note the possibility that we're missing
something significant.
 <a href="#fnref:fo" rev="footnote" title="Jump back to footnote 3 in the
text">↩</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>Jason Wojciechowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16935366214824790506noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-44458853814337031512012-03-06T11:00:00.003-06:002012-03-06T11:41:24.461-06:00What Do Minor League Walk and Strikeout Rates Tell Us About Prospects? Double-A Edition<b>By Chris St. John</b><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><br />
</b></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Introduction</b></span><br />
A few months ago, I created a database that includes all of the prospect rankings from Baseball America, Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein. I didn't have a direct purpose for it, I'm just the type of person who likes to accumulate as much data as possible. So it sat around on my computer until I found a good use for it. Well, thanks to fantasy baseball and Starling Marte's horrible 3.8% walk rate in AA last season, I have. Marte is a possible target in my dynasty minor league draft and I wanted to see what other prospects had poor walk rates and how successful they were in their careers.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Method</b></span><br />
In interest of saving digital space (and your scrolling finger), I will only post the full method on the Rookie and Low-A edition of this series.<br />
<br />
<b style="font-size: x-large;">History</b><br />
<a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/02/what-do-minor-league-walk-and-strikeout.html">Rookie and Low-A</a><br />
<a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/02/what-do-minor-league-walk-and-strikeout_23.html">Single-A</a><br />
<a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/03/what-do-minor-league-walk-and-strikeout.html">Advanced-A</a><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Double-A</b></span><br />
434 of the 480 prospects in this dataset accumulated at least 150 plate appearances in Double-A. 20% were successful, 20% were average and 60% were busts. This is close to the overall 21/21/58 trend for all prospects.<br />
<br />
<b>Walks</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXFSqafJTM9Udi4rI_T-ezNY_OuAIxn7kR7sK6CHP4qInVIugyMYsfskv7sM8pINHxga5E7KvuBi07_qpEdet_RlONOazOImnVJCnq80jyav0jxjbwOtXEH_dLcURpG2QouAOknr4psiGI/s1600/AABBCharts.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXFSqafJTM9Udi4rI_T-ezNY_OuAIxn7kR7sK6CHP4qInVIugyMYsfskv7sM8pINHxga5E7KvuBi07_qpEdet_RlONOazOImnVJCnq80jyav0jxjbwOtXEH_dLcURpG2QouAOknr4psiGI/s320/AABBCharts.jpg" width="258" /></a></div><a name='more'></a>Only eight of 66 prospects (12%) with low or very low walk rates turned into productive MLB hitters (Corey Hart, Raul Mondesi, Chipper Jones, Juan Gonzalez, Carlos Lee, Jose Reyes, Richard Hidalgo, Javy Lopez). 21 of the 62 prospects with high or very high walk rates (34%) became productive. Only two prospects with very high walk rates were busts (Joe Lawrence, Kerwin Moore).<br />
<br />
<b>Correlation to MLB</b><br />
This graph shows the correlation between Double-A walk rates and MLB walk rates.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4_tGA9fv407qV5s5x57cxJaSSYs22nbzAz6mN7MMl7Yk2yDPZt6F0uCGRTZyuaz0nsPuBs59jVby2KtNifp62sqoSmHcM59ThKDJ7K3ymVRyznpwKjwUTAu2UhpNkWgm9u5h4DbC0X39_/s1600/AABBChart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4_tGA9fv407qV5s5x57cxJaSSYs22nbzAz6mN7MMl7Yk2yDPZt6F0uCGRTZyuaz0nsPuBs59jVby2KtNifp62sqoSmHcM59ThKDJ7K3ymVRyznpwKjwUTAu2UhpNkWgm9u5h4DbC0X39_/s320/AABBChart.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><i>Click to enlarge</i></div><br />
<b>2007-2012 Prospects</b><br />
<span style="color: lime;">High Walk Rate: </span>Derek Norris, Cameron Maybin, Logan Morrison, Tyler Flowers, Dexter Fowler, Nick Weglarz, Jaff Decker, Justin Smoak, Lou Marson<br />
<span style="color: red;">Low Walk Rate: </span>Hector Gomez, Julio Borbon, J.P. Arencibia, Wilson Ramos, Jose Iglesias, Engel Beltre, Brett Lawrie, Angel Salome, Starling Marte, Carlos Triunfel<br />
<b><br />
</b><br />
<b>Strikeouts</b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2xix1tn7uCPBmktRMoh0eWHdQZw0CPTRRBaAup5sE7N-4ArncKDoa4Gr3JZgkYyIBxnXOCx-l-aL0lc5S-8VcXtCWc4H_perUVrk2mgd8ClPDupx_gGxqRtdvZxtyB5hAvWT4A9dXAI7u/s1600/AAKCharts.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2xix1tn7uCPBmktRMoh0eWHdQZw0CPTRRBaAup5sE7N-4ArncKDoa4Gr3JZgkYyIBxnXOCx-l-aL0lc5S-8VcXtCWc4H_perUVrk2mgd8ClPDupx_gGxqRtdvZxtyB5hAvWT4A9dXAI7u/s320/AAKCharts.jpg" width="259" /></a></div><br />
The amount of productive hitters with high strikeout rates continues to rise. In Single-A, it was 7.5%. In Advanced-A, it was 14%. Now in Double-A, it is 20% - right in line with the overall total. However, 25% of players with below average strikeout rates became productive. It's still better to have a low strikeout rate, but it's not necessarily bad to have a high one.<br />
<br />
<b>2007-2012 Prospects</b><br />
<span style="color: red;">High Strikeout Rate: </span>Kyle Skipworth, Taylor Teagarden, Greg Halman, Angel Salome, Matt Sweeney, Michael Saunders, Brandon Wood, Ike Davis, Derek Norris, Travis Snider<br />
<span style="color: lime;">Low Strikeout Rate: </span>Alberto Callaspo, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, Cedric Hunter, Michael Brantley, Erick Aybar, Christian Colon, Starlin Castro, Ben Revere, Chin-Lung Hu<br />
<br />
<b>Correlation to MLB</b><br />
This graph shows the correlation between Double-A strikeout rates and MLB strikeout rates.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_GO4R4EM8ij4Nh3GCF0mq9ohvV9srryQ_EjO1BidLDEHzDdHBtM4V2kH7oKKwg8alxk1j-PU_aljfKshS0EN_v6DNR4E8J11ZPhkI_KRqLMzmbHQV-a3xvlUVTdid-C7wS7TvvdeCFseB/s1600/AAKChart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_GO4R4EM8ij4Nh3GCF0mq9ohvV9srryQ_EjO1BidLDEHzDdHBtM4V2kH7oKKwg8alxk1j-PU_aljfKshS0EN_v6DNR4E8J11ZPhkI_KRqLMzmbHQV-a3xvlUVTdid-C7wS7TvvdeCFseB/s320/AAKChart.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><i>Click to enlarge</i></div><br />
<b>Strikeout to Walk Ratio</b><br />
Finally, this plot shows the relationship between Double-A K/BB and Major League Batting Runs per Plate Appearance:<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3uCMbWUtZmG5D2JhUbAiMFtXnTO6IOjCgsb8abn1U-huLfpVV-b_I7enqN7g33X-12PqULNoOLm4qdazRQf_RUcXb2pH1dXiXs8ciiI5SpDMJIxm_VBw0VqV9yLdHteFtf8JSUNRyOTwf/s1600/AAKBBChart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3uCMbWUtZmG5D2JhUbAiMFtXnTO6IOjCgsb8abn1U-huLfpVV-b_I7enqN7g33X-12PqULNoOLm4qdazRQf_RUcXb2pH1dXiXs8ciiI5SpDMJIxm_VBw0VqV9yLdHteFtf8JSUNRyOTwf/s320/AAKBBChart.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><i>Click to Enlarge</i></div><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Conclusion</b></span><br />
The correlation coefficients for walks and strikeouts continue to rise, with strikeout rates still a step ahead of walk rates. Productive hitters haven't improved upon their Double-A strikeout rates as much as they have their walk rates. In order to be a productive hitter, one must achieve a major league walk rate better than expected. This still doesn't guarantee productivity, but it does increase the chances greatly.<br />
<br />
If you would like to know anything specific about the data, you can contact me in the comments section below or on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/stealofhome">@stealofhome</a>.Chris St. Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03346868654558458088noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5064547517730087223.post-86194500528652682662012-03-05T16:27:00.002-06:002012-03-05T16:37:55.757-06:00What Were the Most Damaging Home Runs in 2011?<b>By Chris St. John</b><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">INTRODUCTION</span><br />
You know what's awesome? Home runs. There is something incredibly satisfying about a player lining up a pitch perfectly and knocking it out of the park as hard as possible. Now, we could all sit back and enjoy this majestic marriage of coordination and power, refusing to dig any deeper than the absolutely beautiful surface, but...that's not me. I don't get the same feeling watching a pop-fly that has "just enough" as I do when a slugger almost certainly creates irreparable damage to a spherical object. I could mount up the subjective evidence and describe how one looks like a fly ball to right field while the other is a no-doubter off the bat, but I need to know exactly how much better. So I made up a way to do just that. Enter Home Run Damage:<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">MATH</span><br />
If you're not interested in the math behind this, feel free to skip ahead.<br />
<br />
The <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/">ESPN Home Run Tracker</a> (nee Hit Tracker Online) is a beautiful thing. If you're not familiar with the site, it uses physics to figure out exactly how far a home run should have gone <span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white;">"if the home run flew uninterrupted all the way back to field level." I found the average and standard deviation of the true distance and speed off the bat for all home runs in 2011, excluding inside-the-parkers. Then, I found the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_score">z-score</a> for each home run's true distance and speed. I added the two together to find the total amount of "Damage" caused by each home run. (Sorry, <a href="http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012/02/jose-canseco-math.html">Jose Canseco</a>, I didn't factor in the winning or losing team into this analysis.)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white;"><br />
</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: white;">LEAST DAMAGING</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><span style="background-color: white;"></span></span><br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
<a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18350037&c_id=mlb">5. Eric Sogard vs. Bartolo Colon,8/23/11, New Yankee Stadium</a> (-5.29 Damage)<br />
<a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17301961">4. Curtis Granderson vs. Doug Fister, 7/26/11, New Yankee Stadium</a> (-5.34 Damage)<br />
<a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=14272945">3. Mike Cameron vs. Jason Vargas, 4/29/11, Fenway Park</a> (-5.35 Damage)<br />
<a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=14345437">2. Adam Lind vs. Ivan Nova, 5/1/11, New Yankee Stadium</a> (-5.55 Damage)<br />
1. Xavier Nady vs. Cory Luebke, 7/27/11, PETCO Park (-5.79 Damage)<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=17372959&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">&amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;Your browser does not support iframes.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;gt;</iframe><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">MOST DAMAGING</span><br />
5. Wily Mo Pena vs. James Shields, 8/21/11, Tropicana Field (6.02 Damge)<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=18281875&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">&amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;Your browser does not support iframes.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;gt;</iframe><br />
<br />
4. Prince Fielder vs. Aneury Rodriguez, 7/30/11, Miller Park (6.03 Damage)<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=17479137&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">&amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;Your browser does not support iframes.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;gt;</iframe><br />
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3. Justin Upton vs. Chris Carpenter, 4/12/11, Chase Field (6.24 Damage)<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=13723163&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">&amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;Your browser does not support iframes.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;gt;</iframe><br />
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2. Prince Fielder vs. Brett Myers, 4/29/11, Minute Maid Park (6.43 Damage)<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=14276275&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">&amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;Your browser does not support iframes.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;gt;</iframe><br />
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1. Juan Francisco vs. Rodrigo Lopez, 9/12/11, Great American Ball Park (6.63 Damage)<br />
<iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=19127709&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">&amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;Your browser does not support iframes.&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;gt;</iframe><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">CUMULATIVE DAMAGE</span><br />
Here are the top ten hitters in cumulative Home Run Damage in 2011:<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 211px;"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 5422; mso-width-source: userset; width: 117pt;" width="155"></col> <col style="mso-width-alt: 1954; mso-width-source: userset; width: 42pt;" width="56"></col> </colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"> <td class="xl67" height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; width: 117pt;" width="155"><b>Hitter</b></td> <td class="xl67" style="width: 42pt;" width="56"><b>Damage</b></td> </tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Justin Upton</td> <td align="right" class="xl66">60.6</td> </tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Giancarlo Stanton</td> <td align="right" class="xl66">57.4</td> </tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Jose Bautista</td> <td align="right" class="xl66">47.5</td> </tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Michael Morse</td> <td align="right" class="xl66">41.5</td> </tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Prince Fielder</td> <td align="right" class="xl66">38.2</td> </tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Nelson Cruz</td> <td align="right" class="xl66">36.4</td> </tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Mark Trumbo</td> <td align="right" class="xl66">36.0</td> </tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Josh Hamilton</td> <td align="right" class="xl66">35.0</td> </tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Carlos Gonzalez</td> <td align="right" class="xl66">34.8</td> </tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"> <td class="xl65" height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">Dan Uggla</td> <td align="right" class="xl66">34.2</td> </tr>
</tbody></table><br />
<div>Upton and Stanton are both fairly comfortable at the top. Bautista, while having nine more home runs than Stanton, actually did less damage overall. Fielder appeared twice in the top-5 most damaging home runs, but only ranks fifth in total damage. Wily Mo Pena ranks 20th overall in Damage, even though he only hit seven home runs. He is the only hitter in the top 40 with fewer than ten home runs. </div><div><br />
</div><div>As always, you can follow me on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/stealofhome">@stealofhome</a>.</div>Chris St. Johnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03346868654558458088noreply@blogger.com3