OH MY GOD! That's Terry Ryan's music!!!!

By The Common Man

As you may have noticed if you were anywhere near a computer and a Twitter feed over the past 10 minutes, Bill Smith has been fired as the GM of the Minnesota Twins and has been replaced, on an interim basis by former Twins GM Terry Ryan. Wayne Krivsky, who worked in player development under Ryan, is also reportedly headed back to the fold. Speculation, at this point, is that either Assistant GMs Rob Anthony or Mike Radcliffe will be elevated to fill the GM role.

This is a good day to be a Twins fan. Aside from a very brief window in the 2010 offseason, Bill Smith has not been an effective General Manager. As we’ve documented extensively: here, here, here, here, here, and here. It’s unclear what the new GM will bring to the table as far as decision-making processes. But it has to be better than trading Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps, and then hamstringing yourself by giving him $7 million while losing several other effective relievers. And it has to be better than trading JJ Hardy for two unproven and ineffective relievers. And it can’t get worse than standing by the Twins’ medical staff, obsessing over soft-tossing control guys, and refusing to find a competent backup catcher.

Bill Smith’s sins were many. His best moves were undone by the Twins’ constant moves that whittled away their organizational depth. The Common Man doesn’t know what exactly the future holds, but he’s willing to be optimistic about it for the first time in a year.

The Twins Collapse: in which I sort of defend Bill Smith, who is a terrible GM

By Bill


Over at Baseball Prospectus yesterday, my friend Jay Jaffe (maybe I should put "friend" in quotes, as in, Facebook "friends," but anyway, we have actually met, and I like him) put up a piece on how the Twins went from division contenders to one of the worst teams in baseball. It's a very good piece, and certainly does a good job of identifying most of the major issues, including this depressing gem:

[T]he Twins have gotten just a .150/.186/.224 line from Drew Butera, who has started 31 of the team's games; his .157 True Average is the majors' lowest among players with at least 100 plate appearances. Throw in Rene Rivera, Steve Holm, and the minimal production from a weakened Mauer, and Twins catchers have combined to hit .178/.229/.252—far inferior to Livan Hernandez's career mark (.221/.231/.297)—while stinking at a level roughly one win below replacement level.

Yikes. Anyway, Jay's premise is that in addition to a lot of bad luck, Bill Smith and the Twins basically made five mistakes that helped turn a team that was 34-24 a year ago this morning into the 23-38 one you see today:

• They mishandled Joe Mauer and had no backup plan in place. As indicated in the quote above, it's bad enough that Mauer has been able to play just nine games so far this season (and with no success to speak of), but even worse that they're stuck with the worst hitter in the major leagues in Butera and a couple backups who aren't really any better.
   
• They messed up the middle infield. They traded J.J. Hardy for nothing and let Orlando Hudson walk, trusting in Alexi Casilla and bringing in Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Nishioka was forced to play second rather than his more comfortable short, which led to a devastating injury that's kept him out since game seven and forced them to play replacement players like Matt Tolbert and Luke Hughes in his place.
• They resigned Carl Pavano to a two-year deal and counted on him to anchor the rotation.
• They have all sorts of other rotation problems.
• They put together an offense with a serious lack of big bats.

I encourage you (as always) to RTFA, but there's a summary of the issues for you.

And I do think that Jay has identified most of the major issues with the team. Those five things and the bullpen (which he mentions toward the end) are pretty much the six things that have plagued the Twins most this year. (You could also argue that those six things pretty much encapsulate all that there is to baseball, but that's just how bad the Twins have been.)

But (and I can't believe I'm about to defend Billy Smith here) I don't think the front office is to blame for nearly as much of their struggles as Jay seems to think they are. A healthy portion, no doubt -- I think Smith, with a lot of urging from Gardenhire, took this team from a good one to a mediocre one -- but not as much as all this. Here's how I see the Twins' collapse breaking down, first the mostly-mistakes and then the mostly-luck factors, in order of importance within each category: