The Future of Mark Buehrle

Guest Post By Albert Lang

(TCM Note: While every else is worried about how Albert Pujols will perform over the next ten years, our friend Albert Lang, who does his own excellent work over at H2H Corner, had some thoughts about the value of Mark Buehrle going forward.)

I’ve never been a Mark Buehrle fan for a variety of reasons, most of which aren’t his fault (most likely it is MTV’s fault).

I’ve become more of a fantasy player so I view the game through a different lens – workman pitchers without even a handful of Ks aren’t super valuable. In addition, aside from his defense, there isn’t a ton of flash with Buehrle. I grew up a huge fan of the me-first type players (Barry Bonds and Deion Sanders predominantly). I also think Buehrle can be somewhat of a hypocrite at times.

That said, he was clearly (and deservedly) at the top of the free agent class for a variety of reasons. So, will Buehrle be the free agent god that brings titles to South Beach or more like Jeff Suppan? Certainly there can’t be an in-between!

The good: since 2001, when Buehrle began 11 straight seasons of 200+ innings, Buehrle is first in the majors in innings, 21st in BB/9 (min. 400 IPs), and seventh in WAR (Fangraphs edition) behind only Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Javier Vazquez, Randy Johnson and Johan Santana. You can’t quibble with that consistent usefulness. 

To date, Buehrle has a 3.83 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.48 K:BB rate and 45.9% ground ball (GB) rate. However, there are some chinks in the armor. He led the league in hits four times and, as Dave Cameron pointed out, his ERA likely benefited from some subjective ground ballness and how they are classified/scored as errors. As Cameron discovered, 10.1% of Buehrle’s runs allowed have been unearned. While his ERA puts him in great company, if you look at runs allowed, he seems more like Al Leiter, Barry Zito, Randy Wolf and Jarrod Washburn. You certainly can’t just assume all his unearned runs were a product of his insane amount of ground balls, but it is certainly possible he’s getting a little help from those scoring the games.

STFU LoMo and important links from important people

By The Common Man

The Common Man loves Logan Morrison. You love Logan Morrison. We all love Logan Morrison. But seriously, Logan Morrison should STFU. Yesterday, after the Marlins put Hanley Ramirez on the DL with a strained shoulder, he told reporters,

“What we don’t have is experience and a veteran who is in the lineup every day that can be an anchor for us. We don’t have it…. He’s not there every game. It’s 162 games. It’s not a 100-game season.” (h/t to Aaron Gleeman)

That’s ridiculous. Hanley Ramirez has been incredibly durable until this year. From 2006-2009, he averaged 154 games a year. Last year, he played in 142 games, though he missed 9 of the last 11. Meanwhile, Morrison broke his thumb in 2009 and missed 57 games in the minors. In 2010, his season got off to a late start when a collision in the field left him with shoulder soreness for about 25 days. And this year, Morrison missed 21 games with a foot sprain. Since his (somewhat delayed) debut on July 27 last year, Morrison has played 155 out of a total of 180 possible games. Ramirez has played 138 of those games. While TCM is sure it’s frustrating when Ramirez is not out there, it’s hard to say that he’s been taking much more time off than LoMo.

LoMo would also be smart to remember what happened the last time Ramirez tried to play through an injury. With his back and knees ailing, Ramirez hit just .210/.306/.309 through the first two months of the season. He wasn’t driving the ball, and posted just a .236 BABIP thanks to his weak contact. Since coming off the DL, the much improved shortstop has hit .280/.365/.459. It’s still not quite what we’ve come to expect out of Hanley, but it’s much improved. And the hope is that with additional time to heal this offseason, he’ll come back and be his normal durable self in 2012.

Finally, and this is perhaps the most important part, the Marlins aren’t playing for anything right now. According to Baseball Prospectus, they have a 0.0% chance of making the postseason. They are last in the NL East, 22 games back of the Phillies and 13.5 games back of the Braves for the Wild Card. There is literally no chance they will be playing in October. To risk the long-term health of the team’s best player because Logan Morrison wants to have a veteran player be an “anchor,” would be the height of irresponsiblity. If Logan Morrison wants someone on the team to hit the damn baseball, perhaps he might consider contributing a little, given that he’s hit .233/.307/.430 since coming off the DL on May 13.

(David Gershman, of Marlins Daily, has a similar take on Morrison's knuckleheadedness.)

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Power Rankings Comments Explained: National League

By The Common Man

The new Power Rankings are here!  The new Power Rankings are here!  But, as usual, there more to say that TCM can't fit into two short sentences, so he's expanded on his thoughts here.  Today, TCM talks about how truly awesome Andrew McCutchen has become, and how none of you seem to be noticing, and how dire the situation is in South Florida.  So, without further ado, bonus coverage of the Florida Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates!

ESPN Power Rankings Comments Explained

By The Common Man

Rankings are powerful things, which is why ESPN does not entrust us with a vote in theirs, since The Common Man would probably end up putting the Twins 42nd and the Giants in “whiniest” place. But they do let us provide the comments. And every week, TCM expands on his thoughts in the power rankings for those teams that aren’t represented in the SweetSpot Network. So without further ado, here’s bonus coverage of the White Sox, Angels, Marlins, and Pirates:

NL Power Rankings Comments Explained

Happy Memorial Day everyone.  Here's our post commemorating the day and the reason we are free to blog and call Bill Smith a terrible general manager.  It's Power Rankings day again on ESPN, so TCM is expanding on his comments on the Mothership this morning.  So without further ado, here's a few extra words on the unexpected success of the Pirates and Marlins.

NL Power Rankings Comments Explained

By The Common Man

When the ESPN Power Rankings come out, we're restricted to just a couple of quick sentences with each team. TCM's a lot more long-winded than that, so he's compelled to expand on those comments some more, and provide some context.  So, without further ado, here are the Diamondbacks, Pirates, and Marlins.

NL Power Rankings Comments Explained

By The Common Man

Once again, ESPN’s Power Rankings are up, and The Common Man contributed the comments for the four NL clubs that are not currently covered in the SweetSpot Network. And as before, TCM wants to expand on the comments he provided for each club, the Rockies, Marlins, Pirates, and Diamondbacks:

Power Rankings Explained

By The Common Man

Every week, Bill and The Common Man are asked to help out our friends at ESPN with a brief comment for the Monday Power Rankings about each of the seven teams that are not represented in the SweetSpot network. We work hard on these, but ultimately only get a sentence or two to get our points across, so we thought it might be worth our time and yours to give you a slightly longer take on the larger overall points we were trying to make. So every week, when we have more to say, we will expand on those thoughts here.  Today, The Common Man breaks down the Rockies, Diamondbacks, Marlins and Pirates.

Marlins X Factor: Javier Vazquez

By Bill

We're doing a few of these little "X Factor" posts in conjunction with ESPN's season previews, which will run on the big site tomorrow.

I think the Marlins are going to be better than a lot of people expect. Yes, they made some bewildering moves this offseason, one of which involved sending Dan Uggla, arguably the team's best player last season, to the division rival Braves. But they've made some improvements, too, and are still better than the Mets and Nationals. I think they'll surprise some people.

To do that, though, will require another good pitcher or two to go with Josh Johnson. And one of the reasons I like the Marlins this season is that they've got plenty of possibilities in that area: Ricky Nolasco has had great peripherals for the last three seasons, but they haven't translated to even a decent ERA since 2008; Anibal Sanchez finally put together a very solid full season last year, and could emerge as an excellent number-two starter if his mysterious ability to avoid the home run continues. The most intriguing one, though, and thus my pick for the team's "X Factor," is the one who was the best pitcher in the division two seasons ago: Javy Vazquez.

The path Vazquez's career is awfully interesting, and raises some interesting questions. It's almost certainly more complicated than the usual "guy who can't get it done on the big stage" silliness, but there also may well be a bit more to that silliness than most stat guys want to admit.

For the sabermetrically-minded fan or analyst, it's easy to look at Vazquez and note that with the Yankees in 2010, his fastball was down over two miles an hour on average (from 91.1 to 88.7, per FanGraphs), and conclude that that led to the drop of almost three strikeouts per nine innings (9.77 to 6.92) and the more than doubling of his home run rate (0.82 to 1.83), and that compensating for the loss of velocity led to a more than doubling of his walk rate (1.81 to 3.72), and that these things -- not some fear of New York or pinstripes or something -- caused him to have the worst year of his career in 2010. And you might well be right.

But consider: 2004, his one other year with the Yankees and now the second-worst of his career, paints a surprisingly similar picture. Compared to his 2003 with the Expos, Javy's fastball dropped in average velocity by almost two miles per hour (91.8 to 90.1), his strikeouts dropped by more than two and a half per nine (9.40 to 6.82), with smaller but still significant jumps in his walk and home run rates (2.22 to 2.73 walks per nine and 1.09 to 1.50 homers per nine). The following year he was with the Diamondbacks, and those rate stats didn't quite snap back to their excellent 2003 levels, but each improved on his dreadful 2004, with significant improvements in his walk and strikeout rates.

On one hand, Vazquez's falloff was more pronounced this time than it was in his last tour with the Yankees, and he's pushing 35 now, so we might expect that this one's more likely to be permanent. On the other, though, 2009 was the best year of his career, so maybe the falloff was bigger because the numbers he was faling off from overstate his true talent. 2009 has never been who Vazquez is, but this analysis certainly makes a bounce back to his still-excellent 2005-2008 levels easier to imagine.

So is Javy really just allergic to pinstripes? I still kind of doubt it, but the parallels to 2004 make it seem more plausible than you might think. The Marlins are betting that he is, and that makes him the team's X Factor for 2011.

3 Questions: Florida Marlins

By The Common Man

The Marlins won 80 games last year despite trading or waiving two members of their starting lineup, having four rookies play major roles for the club, enduring a down year by the club’s superstar SS, and getting almost nothing out of the catcher and centerfield spots. Plus, they contended with below replacement level seasons by Emilio Bonafacio and Wes Helms, both of whom got more than 200 PAs. That’s pretty impressive. But in true Fish form, Jeffrey Loria’s Marlins seemed to shoot themselves in the foot this offseason and left themselves with several questions to start 2011. Here are three of them. (As always, you can click here to find a complete list of The Platoon Advantage's 3 Questions series.)

Not Keepers

Break up the band! The streak is over!

No, seriously...

Everyone is so bent out of shape over the Marlins' hot start. Indeed, so hot has Florida been that ESPN.com has named them the #1 team in baseball in their Power Rankings. Well, The Common Man is not fooled. Before the season started, The Common Man had them pegged as a .500 squad, and this streak they've been on (until last night, when they were squelched 8-0 by the intimidating arm of Ross Ohlendorf (and his career 5.96 ERA).

Sure, as his good friend Bill has pointed out, they've earned their success (though Bill puts the kabosh on that pretty fast. They lead the National League in scoring, and are third in runs allowed, per game. The much bally-hooed (and completely unsustainable) start by Emilio Bonafacio (.321/.345/.434), the resurgence of Jeremy Hermida (.300/.451/.600), the rise of C John Baker (.333/.421/.545), and the hot start of Jorge Cantu (.368/.442/.605)are driving the engine, while the bullpen has shined in supporting what has mostly been a good 4 man rotation thusfar.

But come on, Marlin fans. Can you really put any faith in a team that lost to Livan Hernandez? That couldn't figure out Ross Ohlendorf? That has bolstered their record by beating Washington six times? Is that really an accomplishment? At this point, it's like beating up Milhouse after he thinks his parents have died. They've lost all hope, are numb, and welcome the beating so that maybe, just maybe, they will feel something.

At this point, The Common Man is forced to admit that it's likely the Fish will end up above .500. Their rotation is fairly solid, and perhaps they have found a decent mix of retreads in their bullpen (which the aforementioned Nationals are drooling over). Hermida's probably a good player, and Uggla is going to get better, as will Cameron Maybin (he has to, or he'll be replaced by someone who is). And Hanley Ramirez has yet to get on track. But every other hitter is likely to regress severely and the Fish will eventually be forced soon to give Andrew Miller his turn every fifth day (and as they have found out for the last year or so, that's bound to get ugly). And by the end of the season, that #1 finish after week two is going to look awfully silly (especially after Uggla and Cantu are unloaded at midseason).


Then again, maybe The Common Man won't complain. It beats the hell out of everyone talking Yankees and Red Sox.