The Path to Respectability: Kansas City Royals

by Jason Wojciechowski

Remind me to tell you the story
Photo by Jimmy Emerson

Yesterday, I looked at how we could get the Orioles to 88 wins in 2012. It wasn't easy, but with a little optimism here and there, we got there. Today, it's Kansas City's turn.

The thing about the Royals, who Baseball Prospectus projects to 71 wins, one fewer than the Orioles, is that their division doesn't have the behemoths that the East does. Detroit looks formidable, certainly, with boppers in the lineup and Justin Verlander on the mound, but they're not the Yankees, and behind Detroit, the Central isn't so pretty. Cleveland or Chicago is probably the second-best team in the stack, and nobody thinks that either squad will be fighting for a Wild Card come September, even with Bud Selig's Great Expanded Playoff Adventure coming to pass. Eighty-eight wins might, as we'll see, look unreasonable for the Royals, but it could, if things fall right, actually get the team into the playoffs. (BP has the Tigers projected to 86 wins, a number that might look low to you until you consider the team's outfield, a crew that makes up a full 1/3 of the batting lineup in any game.)

Like yesterday, I'm starting off cheap: the Royals get five wins on run-distribution luck, jumping them all the way to 76. Unlike with the Orioles, I don't see an obvious trade for the Royals to make to shore up a particular position. Any team could trade for a starting pitcher at any time, of course, but figuring that a team will make that kind of move is boring for the purposes of this exercise. So let's try to find twelve wins on the roster as it stands.

The Delusion and Downfall of Jeff Francoeur

By The Common Man

By now, you've probably figured out that The Common Man thinks he's pretty damn funny. But really, there’s nothing funnier than Jeff Francouer thinking that he should have a starting gig in Major League Baseball. Jeffy, the league could expand by 5 teams next year, and those five teams could find 10 corner OFers better than you. That said, Craig's right that the minute Francouer decides he doesn't want to play everyday is the day he's done as a big leaguer.

The trouble, of course, is that he has hit .267/.309/.426 for his career, which is a 91 OPS+. That means that Francouer has been below average for a major league hitter, let alone one who plays a premium offensive position. If we discount his amazing run as a 21 year old rookie in 2005, Francour has an OPS+ of 88. The problem, as always, is that Jeffy just has no strikezone judgment to speak of. Frenchy’s 3.65 K/BB ration is 13th highest since 1920 among players with more than 3000 plate appearances. And his stubborn refusal or complete inability to learn how to hit for 6 years has demonstrated that Jeff Francoeur is now what he always will be, and that is a 4th or 5th outfielder, at best.

Any team that offers him any more than a chance to platoon against lefties is filled with boobs, ninnies, and nincompoops. Come to think of it, he may fit in well in Houston.