by Jason Wojciechowski
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| Missed by two feet Photo by John Telleria |
Rookie of the Year guesses generally seem to focus on top-notch prospects expected to get a decent amount of playing time. The obvious choice this year in the American League will probably be someone like Matt Moore. Many years, that's justified: recent Rookies of the Year include Buster Posey, Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun, and Hanley Ramirez, all of whom were well-regarded going into their rookie seasons.
Plenty don't fit this mold, though. Craig Kimbrel was, per Baseball America, Atlanta's fifth-best prospect before 2011, Chris Coghlan rated 9th in Florida's system before 2009, Andrew Bailey was 23rd in Oakland the same year, and even Dustin Pedroia was just seventh in Boston in 2007.
With that in mind, here's one rookie from each team who isn't regarded as a top-notch prospect but who might, with the right breaks in playing time and performance, jump out to a surprise trophy at the end of the year.
Angels: Just two rookies appear on the Baseball Prospectus depth chart for Anaheim, and they're Mike Trout and Garrett Richards, both of whom have roadblocks (though Richards could easily surpass Jerome Williams in the rotation) and, more importantly, both of whom are considered top prospects, with Trout in particular being perhaps the best prospect in the game. I'll run with Alexi Amarista, then, despite not even being the first-string utility player, as he's not the player Maicer Izturis is. It would take him a lot to get the playing time necessary to make an impact, and arguably a lot more for him to perform up to snuff.
