Fire Brand of the American League (Red Sox): 2011 Projections: Kevin Youkilis
Charlie's got his own fancy projection system, and he turns its steely gaze on his favorite team's best hitter.
Sox Machine (White Sox): Results! South Side Satisfaction Surveys: Position Players
Readers graded the Sox's position players, and here are the results. Jim's Mark Kotsay comment is awesome.
The Ray Area: A Nice Playoff Win
The swiftly tilting psychology of Rays fans, as seen through movie clips.
Royals Authority: Roy Halladay's No-Hitter, Moment by Moment
Somehow, for a day, Nick found something more interesting than the Royals to write about.
It's About the Money, Stupid (Yankees): Girardi: "It Could Actually Speed Up the Game."
I like Joe Girardi a lot more than I did a few minutes ago. Joe Girardi gets it.
Baseball Time in Arlington (Rangers): The Rangers Win Game 2
They certainly do. As an impartial observer, though, I have to say -- while he's right to praise Michael Young for his big three-run homer, you'd think there'd be the tiniest mention, in fairness, of the fact that it plainly never should've had the chance to happen.
Capitol Avenue Club (Braves): NLDS Game 1 Recap
"Sickening, infuriating."
The View From the Bleachers (Cubs): 2010 Cubs Report Card, Shortstops
Twenty-year old comes in, hits .300/.347/.408. Gets a B. What happened to grade inflation?
Fungoes (Cardinals): Halladay's No Hitter from a fielding-independent point of view
"Obviously, a no-hitter is a reminder that fielding-independent stats don’t necessarily tell the whole story."
Dodger Thoughts: Hall's Kitchen
"I can still clearly remember Halladay, in his second major-league start in 1998, coming within an out of a no-hitter (that would have been a perfect game if not for a Toronto error). "
Bay City Ball (Giants): Zito Doesn't Make NLDS Roster
"I guess $126M doesn’t buy you what it used to."
Mets Today: Mets Forget Part of Announcement
"I would like to believe that the Mets knew who Minaya’s replacement would be before Minaya was let go.... But the piles of rumors and lists of “candidates” and interviews mentioned throughout the media and blogosphere is making me think that the Mets do NOT know who their new GM will be. Is that possible?"
Crashburn Alley (Phillies): Doc's No-No By the Numbers
Tired of talking about Roy Halladay? Me neither.
Redleg Nation: Fun Stuff
Distractions for Reds fans who might still be shellshocked.
And on The Platoon Advantage: Roy Halladay's Hall of Fame chances.
Friday, October 8, 2010
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Halladay and the Hall
By The Common Man
Last night, The Common Man spent the back half of the Phillies-Reds game and all of the Twins-Yankees tilt chatting on Baseball Tonight Live, on ESPN.com. It was a blast, and a lot of questions came in fast and (especially) furious. One of the most popular queries, in light of Roy Halladay’s remarkable performance earlier in the evening, was whether Doc was already a Hall of Famer, whether he had punched his ticket last night, and/or what else he needed to do to get there. Legitimate questions, and TCM wants to give you some answers.
First, the game was terrific. This was easily the most dominant performance The Common Man has ever seen, and it was more impressive than Halladay’s complete game given the quality of the lineup Halladay was facing. Indeed, the reason we don’t see more no-hitters in the postseason is partly because there are far fewer games in the postseason (and thus fewer opportunities) and also because the lineups pitchers face are generally so much better. That said, one game does not a Hall of Fame career make. Ask Don Larsen. Or Jack Morris. Or Harvey Haddix. But Halladay’s got more on his resume than just this one game.
Halladay has 13 seasons in the majors at this point, roughly 9 of which have come in what we’d consider his prime. Halladay overcame injury problems to start 34 times in 2002 as a 25 year old, and announced his arrival by winning 19 games in 239.1 innings, and a 159 ERA+. The next year he got better and won AL Cy Young. In all, he has won 169 games, with a major league high .663 winning percentage, and three 20-win campaigns. He has five (and soon 6) top five finishes in Cy Young voting. He also leads active pitchers with 58 complete games, and 19 shutouts. Halladay has an ERA+ of 136, 6.7 K/9, and a 3.53 K/BB that has shot up to 6.09 in the last three years. For his career, he has contributed roughly between 54.3 WAR (BBRef) and 61.6 WAR (fangraphs), and has a 3.42 FIP.
Compared to 20th Century Hall of Fame starters, Halladay falls on the low end in most categories. He has fewer wins than anyone else, and fewer innings than everyone except Dizzy Dean. Despite what The Common Man assumes will be two Cy Young Awards and the terrific game last night, there is simply no way Halladay has contributed enough value to make the Hall yet. Right?
Except…on the BBRef WAR leaders list (Fangraphs doesn’t go back far enough), Halladay actually comes in close to and or ahead of several prominent Hall of Famers. Most notably, his 54.3 WAR is just a tick behind Sandy Koufax (54.5). He’s also just one win behind Whitey Ford. He’s ahead of 300 game winner Early Wynn (52.0), Yankee great Red Ruffing (53.6), and turn of the century star Rube Waddell (50.2). He’s well ahead of Rube Marquard (28.5), Catfish Hunter (32.5), and the aforementioned Dean (39.6). In all, 18 Hall of Fame pitchers have contributed fewer wins above replacement than Doc. And he’s within 5.0 WAR of 8 others. So while Halladay probably is not deserving of a Hall of Fame induction just yet, he’s actually getting fairly close in terms of his overall value.
At this point, Halladay is probably 2-3 more good seasons away from cementing himself a spot in the Hall of Fame. And given that he’s only 33, he seems reasonably assured of doing that. But he’s not quite there yet. His career now is roughly equivalent to Bret Saberhagen, another right handed stud who won two Cy Young Awards and had some post-season heroics, but who faded because of injury problems. But you might want to start thinking about what his plaque might say five years after he retires. Something about pitching the most dominant game of our lifetimes might be appropriate.
First, the game was terrific. This was easily the most dominant performance The Common Man has ever seen, and it was more impressive than Halladay’s complete game given the quality of the lineup Halladay was facing. Indeed, the reason we don’t see more no-hitters in the postseason is partly because there are far fewer games in the postseason (and thus fewer opportunities) and also because the lineups pitchers face are generally so much better. That said, one game does not a Hall of Fame career make. Ask Don Larsen. Or Jack Morris. Or Harvey Haddix. But Halladay’s got more on his resume than just this one game.
Halladay has 13 seasons in the majors at this point, roughly 9 of which have come in what we’d consider his prime. Halladay overcame injury problems to start 34 times in 2002 as a 25 year old, and announced his arrival by winning 19 games in 239.1 innings, and a 159 ERA+. The next year he got better and won AL Cy Young. In all, he has won 169 games, with a major league high .663 winning percentage, and three 20-win campaigns. He has five (and soon 6) top five finishes in Cy Young voting. He also leads active pitchers with 58 complete games, and 19 shutouts. Halladay has an ERA+ of 136, 6.7 K/9, and a 3.53 K/BB that has shot up to 6.09 in the last three years. For his career, he has contributed roughly between 54.3 WAR (BBRef) and 61.6 WAR (fangraphs), and has a 3.42 FIP.
Compared to 20th Century Hall of Fame starters, Halladay falls on the low end in most categories. He has fewer wins than anyone else, and fewer innings than everyone except Dizzy Dean. Despite what The Common Man assumes will be two Cy Young Awards and the terrific game last night, there is simply no way Halladay has contributed enough value to make the Hall yet. Right?
At this point, Halladay is probably 2-3 more good seasons away from cementing himself a spot in the Hall of Fame. And given that he’s only 33, he seems reasonably assured of doing that. But he’s not quite there yet. His career now is roughly equivalent to Bret Saberhagen, another right handed stud who won two Cy Young Awards and had some post-season heroics, but who faded because of injury problems. But you might want to start thinking about what his plaque might say five years after he retires. Something about pitching the most dominant game of our lifetimes might be appropriate.
SweetSpot Roundup 10/7
By The Common Man and Bill
Baseball Time in Arlington (Rangers): The Taste of Playoff Victory
"What a simply fantastic day. It's only the first, solitary piece falling into a place, but it's something that I think the vast majority of us needed in order to assuage our nerves and collective apprehension and finally let go of the team's past post-season failures."
Fire Brand of the American League (Red Sox): The Day Tom Brunansky Saved the Division
Tom Brunansky was The Common Man's first favorite Twin. However, when he was 7, he thought Kirby Puckett was the tall white guy in RF, and Tom Brunansky was the short black guy in CF. Still not sure which one he meant when he said his favorite player was Tom Brunansky.
Royals Authority: The First of Many
Clark projects the 2011 Royals roster, as it is currently comprised.
Sox Machine (White Sox): South Side Satisfaction Survey, Pitchers
An awesome interactive way to rate Sox pitchers.
It's About the Money, Stupid (Yankees): Larry's Rational Guide to the Postseason
Some good advice from Larry. The Common Man heartily endorses all five rules. Plus, Tamar recaps last night's win in Minnesota.
Capitol Avenue Club (Braves): Derek Lowe is the right one
“Derek Lowe is the only one of their front three with postseason experience and available to start on regular rest, making the decision automatic. But even if they hadn’t started Tim Hudson last weekend and Tommy Hanson had made a pair of dominant postseason starts last year, Derek Lowe is the correct choice to start game one.”
The View from the Bleachers (Cubs): 2010 Cubs Report Card: Second Base
Handing out letter grades to the Cubs’ second sackers.
Austin’s Astros 290 Blog: Ex-Stros not heroes, but still effective on first day of playoffs
Tracking the playoff fortunes of former Astros. I had no idea that Ben Zobrist was once a Houston farmhand.
Crashburn Alley (Phillies): Roy Halladay Tosses Second Post-Season No-Hitter
“Hits by Roy Halladay through one plate appearance: 1.
Hits by the Cincinnati Reds through 28 plate appearances: 0”
Ducksnorts (Padres): Revisiting IVIE 2010
In March, Ducksnorts readers got to participate in putting together some community projections for the team. Here’s how they turned out.
Fungoes (Cardinals): United Cardinal Bloggers Roundtable: Trade Carpenter?
I’ll say it again: every team should have an equivalent of the UCB. Here they consider whether it might be time to part ways with the 36-year-old-to-be Carpenter.
Redleg Nation: Titanic Struggle Recap...wait, what?
The Nation is in shock today after Halladay surgically removed the bats from Reds' hands all night long.
Baseball Time in Arlington (Rangers): The Taste of Playoff Victory
"What a simply fantastic day. It's only the first, solitary piece falling into a place, but it's something that I think the vast majority of us needed in order to assuage our nerves and collective apprehension and finally let go of the team's past post-season failures."
Fire Brand of the American League (Red Sox): The Day Tom Brunansky Saved the Division
Tom Brunansky was The Common Man's first favorite Twin. However, when he was 7, he thought Kirby Puckett was the tall white guy in RF, and Tom Brunansky was the short black guy in CF. Still not sure which one he meant when he said his favorite player was Tom Brunansky.
Royals Authority: The First of Many
Clark projects the 2011 Royals roster, as it is currently comprised.
Sox Machine (White Sox): South Side Satisfaction Survey, Pitchers
An awesome interactive way to rate Sox pitchers.
It's About the Money, Stupid (Yankees): Larry's Rational Guide to the Postseason
Some good advice from Larry. The Common Man heartily endorses all five rules. Plus, Tamar recaps last night's win in Minnesota.
Capitol Avenue Club (Braves): Derek Lowe is the right one
“Derek Lowe is the only one of their front three with postseason experience and available to start on regular rest, making the decision automatic. But even if they hadn’t started Tim Hudson last weekend and Tommy Hanson had made a pair of dominant postseason starts last year, Derek Lowe is the correct choice to start game one.”
The View from the Bleachers (Cubs): 2010 Cubs Report Card: Second Base
Handing out letter grades to the Cubs’ second sackers.
Austin’s Astros 290 Blog: Ex-Stros not heroes, but still effective on first day of playoffs
Tracking the playoff fortunes of former Astros. I had no idea that Ben Zobrist was once a Houston farmhand.
Crashburn Alley (Phillies): Roy Halladay Tosses Second Post-Season No-Hitter
“Hits by Roy Halladay through one plate appearance: 1.
Hits by the Cincinnati Reds through 28 plate appearances: 0”
Ducksnorts (Padres): Revisiting IVIE 2010
In March, Ducksnorts readers got to participate in putting together some community projections for the team. Here’s how they turned out.
Fungoes (Cardinals): United Cardinal Bloggers Roundtable: Trade Carpenter?
I’ll say it again: every team should have an equivalent of the UCB. Here they consider whether it might be time to part ways with the 36-year-old-to-be Carpenter.
Redleg Nation: Titanic Struggle Recap...wait, what?
The Nation is in shock today after Halladay surgically removed the bats from Reds' hands all night long.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Playoff Results by Coin Flip
By Bill
I did this last year, and it turned out terribly. But I still believe it should perform about as well as most experts' complicated previews and predictions, so I'll try it again. Heads for the team that has home-field advantage (or would if that series were to happen), tails for the other. As a new twist this year, I'm consulting Random.org for a number between 3 and 5 or 4 and 7 to tell you how many games each series will take.
The expert this morning is a 2001 penny I found in my desk drawer. Minted in Denver, so expect some anti-Giants bias:
ALDS: Rays over Rangers in 5; Yankees over Twins in 3 (damn penny/randomizer!)
NLDS: Phillies over Reds in 4; Giants over Braves in 3
ALCS: Rays over Yankees in 5
NLCS: Phillies over Giants in 4
World Series: Phillies over Rays in 5
That was a lot of heads; tails came up only once, and at the worst possible time for me, kittens and puppies, and the light side of the Force. Looks about as good a guess as any, though.
I did this last year, and it turned out terribly. But I still believe it should perform about as well as most experts' complicated previews and predictions, so I'll try it again. Heads for the team that has home-field advantage (or would if that series were to happen), tails for the other. As a new twist this year, I'm consulting Random.org for a number between 3 and 5 or 4 and 7 to tell you how many games each series will take.
The expert this morning is a 2001 penny I found in my desk drawer. Minted in Denver, so expect some anti-Giants bias:
ALDS: Rays over Rangers in 5; Yankees over Twins in 3 (damn penny/randomizer!)
NLDS: Phillies over Reds in 4; Giants over Braves in 3
ALCS: Rays over Yankees in 5
NLCS: Phillies over Giants in 4
World Series: Phillies over Rays in 5
That was a lot of heads; tails came up only once, and at the worst possible time for me, kittens and puppies, and the light side of the Force. Looks about as good a guess as any, though.
SweetSpot Roundup 10/6
Crashburn Alley (Phillies): NLDS Preview, Starting Rotation
Bill gives the Phillies a leg up over the Reds because of their dominant starting pitching...
Redleg Nation: NLDS Preview, The Starting Eight
Meanwhile, Chad thinks the lineup advantage goes to Cincinnati. Why can't we all just get along?
Bay City Ball (Giants): NLDS Preview, Talking Braves with Capitol Avenue Club
See, this is what it's all about. Intra-network collaboration and communication.
Capitol Avenue Club (Braves): NLDS Preview, Talking Giants with Chris Quick
Then again, we'll see if these boys are so friendly on Thursday night.
Austin's Astros 290 Blog: Post-season Awards
Austin hands out the hardware. Carlos Lee's Least Valuable Player Award is his stinking turd of a season bronzed.
The View From the Bleachers (Cubs): Cubs Report Card, First base
Buddy is optimistic: "Hang in there Cubs fans. Next year has to be a better year at 1B. It definitely can’t get any worse." Casey Kotchman begs to differ.
Dodger Thoughts: 2010 Dodgers Online Baseball Cards
OK, this is a pretty cool idea from Jon Weisman and the ESPNLosAngeles crew. Very classy. By the way, did you know Jamey Carroll had a .379 OBP this year? You do now.
Disciples of Uecker (Brewers): An Important Post-Season Note
As Jack points out, the end of the season means the Brew Crew is free and clear of some bad investments.
Fire Brand of the American League (Red Sox): Cheap Alternatives: Juan Uribe
Charlie likes the Giants' utility guy to replace free-agent-to-be Adrian Beltre.
Sox Machine (White Sox): South Side Satisfaction Survey: Position Players
Rate your 2010 Chicago White Sox, "based on the nebulous concept of satisfaction."
The Daily Fungo (Tigers): Fungo Flashback: Game 163
"Game 163 one was year ago tomorrow. Here's our recap ... Not to bum you out or anything."
Royals Authority: Thanks for a Great Season
Fan/reader/listener appreciation day.
Nick's Twins Blog: Scouting the Enemy: Q&A with IIATMS
Ramping up for the ALDS matchup, the It's About the Money, Stupid crew answers Nick's Yankees questions...
It's About the Money, Stupid (Yankees): Chatting with the Enemy, Part II
...and Nick, of course, answers their Twins questions.
Pro Ball NW (Mariners): Rainiers 2010 Prospect Recap
A very, very comprehensive look at the prospects to have stopped or stayed in Tacoma this year.
The Ray Area: The Rays Will Beat the Rangers
I sure think so. Apparently, Tampa local media isn't nearly so sure. Mark puts them in their place.
Baseball Time in Arlington (Rangers): The Rangers and Playoff Streaking
"So, knowing that a player has been in -- or is in the midst of -- a hot/cold streak is of little predictive value. You don't use Cruz's recently scorching-hot performance to argue that he's going to be an especially big asset in the ALDS; rather, you expect him to perform how he's performed over the last 2-3 seasons, which is impressive enough in itself."
And on The Platoon Advantage, in honor of Felix Hernandez's brilliant 2010, The Common Man looks at the 40 greatest individual seasons on terrible teams. Bill takes his annual jab at experts' playoff predictions in Playoff Results by Coin Flip.
Bill gives the Phillies a leg up over the Reds because of their dominant starting pitching...
Redleg Nation: NLDS Preview, The Starting Eight
Meanwhile, Chad thinks the lineup advantage goes to Cincinnati. Why can't we all just get along?
Bay City Ball (Giants): NLDS Preview, Talking Braves with Capitol Avenue Club
See, this is what it's all about. Intra-network collaboration and communication.
Capitol Avenue Club (Braves): NLDS Preview, Talking Giants with Chris Quick
Then again, we'll see if these boys are so friendly on Thursday night.
Austin's Astros 290 Blog: Post-season Awards
Austin hands out the hardware. Carlos Lee's Least Valuable Player Award is his stinking turd of a season bronzed.
The View From the Bleachers (Cubs): Cubs Report Card, First base
Buddy is optimistic: "Hang in there Cubs fans. Next year has to be a better year at 1B. It definitely can’t get any worse." Casey Kotchman begs to differ.
Dodger Thoughts: 2010 Dodgers Online Baseball Cards
OK, this is a pretty cool idea from Jon Weisman and the ESPNLosAngeles crew. Very classy. By the way, did you know Jamey Carroll had a .379 OBP this year? You do now.
Disciples of Uecker (Brewers): An Important Post-Season Note
As Jack points out, the end of the season means the Brew Crew is free and clear of some bad investments.
Fire Brand of the American League (Red Sox): Cheap Alternatives: Juan Uribe
Charlie likes the Giants' utility guy to replace free-agent-to-be Adrian Beltre.
Sox Machine (White Sox): South Side Satisfaction Survey: Position Players
Rate your 2010 Chicago White Sox, "based on the nebulous concept of satisfaction."
The Daily Fungo (Tigers): Fungo Flashback: Game 163
"Game 163 one was year ago tomorrow. Here's our recap ... Not to bum you out or anything."
Royals Authority: Thanks for a Great Season
Fan/reader/listener appreciation day.
Nick's Twins Blog: Scouting the Enemy: Q&A with IIATMS
Ramping up for the ALDS matchup, the It's About the Money, Stupid crew answers Nick's Yankees questions...
It's About the Money, Stupid (Yankees): Chatting with the Enemy, Part II
...and Nick, of course, answers their Twins questions.
Pro Ball NW (Mariners): Rainiers 2010 Prospect Recap
A very, very comprehensive look at the prospects to have stopped or stayed in Tacoma this year.
The Ray Area: The Rays Will Beat the Rangers
I sure think so. Apparently, Tampa local media isn't nearly so sure. Mark puts them in their place.
Baseball Time in Arlington (Rangers): The Rangers and Playoff Streaking
"So, knowing that a player has been in -- or is in the midst of -- a hot/cold streak is of little predictive value. You don't use Cruz's recently scorching-hot performance to argue that he's going to be an especially big asset in the ALDS; rather, you expect him to perform how he's performed over the last 2-3 seasons, which is impressive enough in itself."
And on The Platoon Advantage, in honor of Felix Hernandez's brilliant 2010, The Common Man looks at the 40 greatest individual seasons on terrible teams. Bill takes his annual jab at experts' playoff predictions in Playoff Results by Coin Flip.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
40 Greatest Individual Seasons on Terrible Teams
By The Common Man
Last week's big debate over whether Felix Hernandez deserves the AL Cy Young (he does), and the sudden realization that Hernandez has been so good that more mainstream reporters, like Ken Rosenthal and Jon Heyman, were supporting his candidacy, got The Common Man to wondering about the best seasons ever by players on terrible squads. Hernandez's 2010 has been terrific, but prior to this year, it was in danger of going unrecognized because of his low (13) win total. Who else might have been overlooked because of their teammates?
So TCM looked at the top WAR seasons (BR.com method) by players whose teams finished with a winning percentage below .400, and then accounted for the number of games their teams played. Here are the top 40 greatest seasons on terrible teams:
Playoff Preview Podcast
If you missed it last night, The Common Man, Bill, and Lar of Wezenball.com held a special edition of our regular podcast last night, providing a playoff primer and preview for practically everyone. It was exquisite. For predictions, factoids, and scintillating repartee, check it out below the jump.
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