Fives Are Wild

By The Common Man

When Major League Baseball announced the new playoff format last Friday, and the addition of two clubs to the postseason, you probably already had your mind made up to love it or hate it. It was a polarizing decision, and was roundly mocked in some, less tolerant, circles.

That's fine. The Common Man gets that change is not always popular, and that this move does dumb down the postseason, making it far more likely that another mediocre team wins the World Series. Maybe that's a problem for you, but TCM doesn't really mind it. One of the many reasons The Common Man likes baseball because it's exciting and wonderful and full of surprise, and there's unexpected drama that can come out of any single pitch.

The Common Man doesn't begrudge you your opinion, so perhaps you would indulge him and approach the following point with an open mind: The new playoff system is going to make the end of the season more exciting. This is good for us as fans, and good for the game as a whole.

But TCM, you're saying, the end of last year would have sucked, given that all the Rays, Red Sox, Cardinals, and Braves wouldn't have had anything to play for. And you're right. Last year would have sucked. But last year was also just one season out of many. So The Common Man looked back at every season since 1995, when the first Wild Cards were awarded to the Rockies and Yankees, to see what the difference was between the Wild Card winner and the 5th place team in each league, and the 5th and 6th place team in each league.

Why I hate the new postseason plan

By Bill


We've known it was coming for a while now, but yesterday it was made more or less official, with the approval of the sale of the Astros to Jim Crane: the Astros will be moving to the AL West, most likely in 2013, giving each division five teams. And it seems a foregone conclusion that another change is headed our way by the 2013 postseason, and perhaps as early as next season, with the addition of two more wild cards, with the two wild cards from each league meeting in a one-game playoff (or play-in, if you will) to determine who advances to the traditional five-game LDS.

In the interest of full disclosure and all that: on this one issue, I'm kind of a traditionalist. Yes, I'd like to see instant replay and/or robot umpires in every feasible instance, including, if possible, computerized ball/strike calls. But here, I'm a regular Bob Costas or Billy Crystal. We've been in the wild card era for eighteen years now, and I'd still really love to see them go back to the four-division, two-playoff-round format that subsisted from 1969 to 1993, and if I'd been alive for the old no-division, two-league, winner-goes-to-the-Series format that had been in place from the turn of the century through '68, I'd probably be in favor of that instead.

It's not entirely nostalgia, though. The thing is that while what happened this year -- the Cardinals winning it all despite being, in terms of full-regular-season performance, probably the worst team in the postseason -- can be fun in its own way, I'd really prefer to see the best team from each league in the Series, or at least to be given a really good chance of getting there. Every expansion to the playoffs cheapens the regular season a little bit. If American League Team X won 105 games in the regular season, and American League Team Y won 88, in almost every case, we already know beyond the shadow of a doubt that X is a better team than Y, so having the two face off in a short series, in which anything can happen, seems counterproductive.

Friday Forum: Our Postseason Picks

I (this is Bill, hi!) used to really hate postseason predictions. They're pretty pointless, really. Even the "worst" playoff team has a pretty decent chance of beating the best, especially in a five-game series, and that people spend so much time analyzing these things and declaring what the key factors are and all that just seems silly to me. They're always wrong; the Yankees could be playing the Tigers and everyone could agree that the key factor for New York is Robinson Cano, and you can pretty much count on Cano going 2-for-15 and the Yankees winning in three. My little statement in this regard, for the past couple years, has been to flip a coin to determine the playoff results, and then sort of reverse-engineer a phony justification for the picks.

Well, a few things happened: (1) we have this whole staff now; (2) it occurred to me that pointless and fun/interesting aren't necessarily mutually exclusive; and (3) the coin flip results worked out terribly twice in a row (2009, 2010). So, I polled the staff and got everybody's predictions, and you can see them below. I also flipped a coin, because I just can't stop. So here they are, with explanations below the table:

The Postseason Reality

By The Common Man

What an amazing night last night, as the Red Sox and the Braves completed their historic and horrific collapses, and the Rays and Cardinals blew past them and into the postseason. It was a remarkable achievement by all four clubs, actually, even if that achievement is significantly painful for some. So many congratulations to the Rays and the Cardinals, and the good baseball-loving people of the Tampa Bay area and St. Louis. And many condolences to the downtrodden in Boston and Atlanta. But baseball waits for no man (not even The Common Man), and so the conquering heroes will be whisked to Texas and Philadelphia respectively to meet their fates.


Both the Rays and the Cards finished their seasons on terrific hot streaks. The Cardinals won 21 of their final 29 games, and ended September with a record of 18-8. In their last ten games, they went 7-3. The Rays finished September 17-10 and ended on a five game winning streak. Naturally, we’d expect their hot play to continue into the postseason. Of course, they’re not running up against paper dolls. Philadelphia won just four of their final 10 games while they rested, but the Rangers have been incredibly hot too, winning 9 of their last 10. But as we learned last year, history suggests that hot and cold streaks going into the playoffs are not meaningful. Not even a little.  Consider the hottest and coldest teams entering the postseason since the beginning of the Wild Card Era in 1995:

The 5th Wheel

By The Common Man

On Saturday, Joel Sherman reported that Major League Baseball and the Players’ Association “have all but agreed [to add] two wild-card teams and hold one-game playoffs in each league to determine which of the wild cards advances.” In other words, each league would add a fifth Wild Card team. It’s a dramatic change to the league’s playoff structure that has been in place for the past seventeen seasons, and could lead to even more glaring shakeups in which the leagues eliminate divisions entirely. The Common Man was slightly horrified and incredibly skeptical of benefits of such a move.


Understandably, there is also a great deal of concern from baseball fans, bloggers, and pundits that adding two more Wild Card teams dilutes the pool of playoff participants, risks allowing an inferior team to win the World Series, and destroys the drama of the regular season. Indeed, as Moshe Mandel of the excellent The Yankee Analysts, pointed out last night, that’s especially true this year, “an extra playoff spot would kill these races. NOT NECESSARILY GONNA ADD DRAMA WITH THAT.” He’s right, with two games left, all five playoff spots would have already been locked up under the proposed new system. The riveting back and forth fight between the Rays and Red Sox and the Cardinals and Braves simply wouldn’t exist, and these teams would be playing out the string in preparation for the postseason.

That said, historically the theoretical 5th playoff spot has been hotly contested, even down to the wire. In fact, the race for 5th has been a nail-biter far more often than it’s been a laugher. Consider:

The Ten Longest World Series Appearance Droughts

By Bill

A couple days ago, over on the excellent site Beyond the Box Score, Justin Bopp came up with a great graphic, illustrating how long it has been since each team in baseball made it to a World Series.  You hear a lot about World Series droughts in the sense of actually winning a championship, but not many people talk about the droughts between Series appearances.  Here's a closer look at the top (bottom?) ten:

10. Cincinnati Reds 
Last Series: 1990.  The Reds shocked the season-long-dominant A's in a four-game sweep.  A career year by Mariano Duncan and strong showings by Chris Sabo and Hal Morris helped offset disappointing showings by Eric Davis, Barry Larkin and Paul O'Neill, but the team's biggest strengths were starting pitcher Jose Rijo and that famous "Nasty Boys" bullpen. They had no business beating the Pirates in the NLCS and even less beating the A's in the Series, but that's why the word "crapshoot" was invented (well, that's why it was applied to baseball, anyway).
Nearest Miss Since: They were swept out of the NLCS in 1995, but at least they were only one series away.  The best team in that span was the 1999 squad, who won 96 but lost the wild-card tiebreaker to the Mets.

Our Second Job

Sometimes, if feels like watching baseball has become The Common Man’s second job, rather than his favorite hobby. Certainly, The Uncommon Wife feels that way. After all, the playoffs have been going on for almost three weeks now, and there are still at least four games left (but hopefully more). And TCM has caught most of these contests in full or at least in part, particularly when he’s been participating in ESPN’s Baseball Tonight Live chats.

So how much baseball have you been watching these last few weeks? If you’re like TCM, the answer is a lot. If you watched every minute of the division series matchups, you would have watched almost two full days of baseball (47 hours, 53 minutes). If you managed to limit yourself to just the primetime matchups, you’d have watched 21 hours and 27 minutes of action.

And while the number of teams and games were reduced in the Championship Series, that didn’t make as big a difference in the overall game time as you would expect. You still would have spent an entire standard work week watching baseball (41 hours, 5 minutes). And if you had limited yourself to just the featured game each day, you would have actually watched more baseball than in the division series, as the D.S.es took seven days, while the Championship Series was spread out over nine. Those nine games totaled 30 hours and 46 minutes.

And the games have gotten longer as we’ve gotten deeper into the postseason. Division Series games were, on average, 14 minutes shorter than Championship Series games, fueled mostly by four games in the Rangers-Yankees series that lasted more than 3:45. There was just a single game in the postseason longer than 3:45 that the Yankees were not involved in (out of six).

So when you hear pundits and main stream media types decry relatively low ratings for ball games (especially compared to football ratings) and use them to suggest that people don’t love the game anymore, remind yourself that even the best of us need a day off from work every now and again.

Playoff Podcast, Part Deux

Last night's podcast was a rollicking good time with regular contributors Lar of Wezenball.com, The Common Man, and Bill, as well as special guests Jason Rosenberg of It's About the Money, Stupid and Dan McQuade of Walkoff Walk (amongst other places).  What have we learned from the Divisions Series?  Exactly how good is Cliff Lee?  Why won't Bill just accept that the Phillies are the best team in the National League?  Do the Rangers even have a chance?  How obnoxious are Philly fans these days?  Did we go easy on Jason and Yankee fans?  And what's going to happen in the Championship Series that start tomorrow and Saturday?

All these questions and more are answered below the jump.  Take a listen.

Halladay and the Hall

By The Common Man

Last night, The Common Man spent the back half of the Phillies-Reds game and all of the Twins-Yankees tilt chatting on Baseball Tonight Live, on ESPN.com. It was a blast, and a lot of questions came in fast and (especially) furious. One of the most popular queries, in light of Roy Halladay’s remarkable performance earlier in the evening, was whether Doc was already a Hall of Famer, whether he had punched his ticket last night, and/or what else he needed to do to get there. Legitimate questions, and TCM wants to give you some answers.

First, the game was terrific. This was easily the most dominant performance The Common Man has ever seen, and it was more impressive than Halladay’s complete game given the quality of the lineup Halladay was facing. Indeed, the reason we don’t see more no-hitters in the postseason is partly because there are far fewer games in the postseason (and thus fewer opportunities) and also because the lineups pitchers face are generally so much better. That said, one game does not a Hall of Fame career make. Ask Don Larsen. Or Jack Morris. Or Harvey Haddix. But Halladay’s got more on his resume than just this one game.

Halladay has 13 seasons in the majors at this point, roughly 9 of which have come in what we’d consider his prime. Halladay overcame injury problems to start 34 times in 2002 as a 25 year old, and announced his arrival by winning 19 games in 239.1 innings, and a 159 ERA+. The next year he got better and won AL Cy Young. In all, he has won 169 games, with a major league high .663 winning percentage, and three 20-win campaigns. He has five (and soon 6) top five finishes in Cy Young voting. He also leads active pitchers with 58 complete games, and 19 shutouts. Halladay has an ERA+ of 136, 6.7 K/9, and a 3.53 K/BB that has shot up to 6.09 in the last three years. For his career, he has contributed roughly between 54.3 WAR (BBRef) and 61.6 WAR (fangraphs), and has a 3.42 FIP.

Compared to 20th Century Hall of Fame starters, Halladay falls on the low end in most categories. He has fewer wins than anyone else, and fewer innings than everyone except Dizzy Dean. Despite what The Common Man assumes will be two Cy Young Awards and the terrific game last night, there is simply no way Halladay has contributed enough value to make the Hall yet. Right?

Except…on the BBRef WAR leaders list (Fangraphs doesn’t go back far enough), Halladay actually comes in close to and or ahead of several prominent Hall of Famers. Most notably, his 54.3 WAR is just a tick behind Sandy Koufax (54.5). He’s also just one win behind Whitey Ford. He’s ahead of 300 game winner Early Wynn (52.0), Yankee great Red Ruffing (53.6), and turn of the century star Rube Waddell (50.2). He’s well ahead of Rube Marquard (28.5), Catfish Hunter (32.5), and the aforementioned Dean (39.6). In all, 18 Hall of Fame pitchers have contributed fewer wins above replacement than Doc. And he’s within 5.0 WAR of 8 others. So while Halladay probably is not deserving of a Hall of Fame induction just yet, he’s actually getting fairly close in terms of his overall value.

At this point, Halladay is probably 2-3 more good seasons away from cementing himself a spot in the Hall of Fame. And given that he’s only 33, he seems reasonably assured of doing that. But he’s not quite there yet. His career now is roughly equivalent to Bret Saberhagen, another right handed stud who won two Cy Young Awards and had some post-season heroics, but who faded because of injury problems. But you might want to start thinking about what his plaque might say five years after he retires. Something about pitching the most dominant game of our lifetimes might be appropriate.

Playoff Results by Coin Flip

By Bill

I did this last year, and it turned out terribly. But I still believe it should perform about as well as most experts' complicated previews and predictions, so I'll try it again. Heads for the team that has home-field advantage (or would if that series were to happen), tails for the other. As a new twist this year, I'm consulting Random.org for a number between 3 and 5 or 4 and 7 to tell you how many games each series will take.

The expert this morning is a 2001 penny I found in my desk drawer. Minted in Denver, so expect some anti-Giants bias:

ALDS: Rays over Rangers in 5; Yankees over Twins in 3 (damn penny/randomizer!)
NLDS: Phillies over Reds in 4; Giants over Braves in 3

ALCS: Rays over Yankees in 5
NLCS: Phillies over Giants in 4

World Series: Phillies over Rays in 5

That was a lot of heads; tails came up only once, and at the worst possible time for me, kittens and puppies, and the light side of the Force. Looks about as good a guess as any, though.

Playoff Preview Podcast

If you missed it last night, The Common Man, Bill, and Lar of Wezenball.com held a special edition of our regular podcast last night, providing a playoff primer and preview for practically everyone.  It was exquisite.  For predictions, factoids, and scintillating repartee, check it out below the jump.

Don't Worry, Be Happy

By The Common Man

So you’re worried about your playoff team? The one that finished 2-8 over the last 10 games, and looked utterly and completely lost in the process? Well, The Common Man doesn’t blame you. It’s a discouraging way to back into the playoffs.

So, given its struggles, what chance does this team, The Common Man’s beloved Twins, actually stand in the postseason against the Yankees? What does history teach us about their chances?

October Ain't May

By The Common Man

With the Twins sweeping the White Sox out of the pennant race yesterday, it’s time to look forward to the coming postseason and the Twins chances of advancing to the World Series. The Twins have a winning record against the Texas Rangers (7-3 with a +15 run differential), but would not be eligible to face the Rangers in the first round, since the Wild Card winner is coming out of the AL East.

Unfortunately, the Twins have fared poorly against both the Yankees (2-4 with a -3 differential) and the Rays (3-5 with a -6 differential). So, on the surface at least, the Twins and their fans should be concerned about getting through the Division Series. But are the Twins that the Yankees and Rays will face in October the same Twins they played in May, June, and July? And are the Yankees and Rays the same clubs they were?

Let’s look at the Twins starters through six games with the Yankees. The bad news is that the Yankees had to go up against Justin Morneau six times and still beat the Twins this year. Morneau, obviously, is unlikely to contribute much in the postseason, even if he is added to the roster. More likely, the Yankees will face off against Michael Cuddyer at 1B, which is a huge defensive downgrade. The good news is that Cuddyer’s shift opens up additional playing time for Jason Kubel (who played only 4 games against the Bombers, Delmon Young (who also played 4). This, and the fact that Drew Butera should remain stapled to the bench throughout the postseason (meaning Joe Mauer won’t have to DH), will provide additional opportunities for Jim Thome (who only got into 2 games). That lineup shifting may not be enough to make up for the run differential itself though, especially with Morneau sitting out.

However, the Yankees faced off against just three of the Twins starters, facing Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, and Nick Blackburn twice each. They met little success against Liriano, who limited them to 5 runs in 13 innings, while striking out 14. They teed off Scott Baker in their first meeting (5 runs in 6 innings), but he shut them down for five innings in his second start. And Blackburn also proved largely stymieing (5 runs in 13 innings). The Yankees are not likely, however, to face Baker. It may face Blackburn, who has a 1.71 ERA in 31 innings since being recalled from the minors, but only in a game 4. New York is more likely to have to go against Liriano, Carl Pavano, and Brian Duensing in games 1-3.

The main problem for the Twins was their bullpen performance. In 14 innings, the Twins relievers gave up five home runs, and allowed 5 of 6 inherited runners to score, in addition to allowing 9 runs of their own. It was a miserable performance. And this is where the Twins may have made up significant ground on the Yankees, as they have significantly bolstered their bullpen with the additions of Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes, and with the reemergence of Jesse Crain. Their success pushes Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, and Jose Mijares into lower-leverage roles. And other relievers like Alex Burnett and Ron Mahay will not be part of the post-season pen.

The Yankees, meanwhile, are dealing with a hobbled Alex Rodriguez, a concussed Jorge Posada, a brittle Andy Pettitte, a slumping Robinson Cano, and an ineffective Derek Jeter. And when the teams played earlier this year, the only players likely to play in the playoffs who did not get a crack at the Twins were Posada (who played in 2 games) and Curtis Granderson (who did not play at all). In all, the teams look well-matched.

Similarly, the Twins who faced the Rays are vastly different from who Tampa will see now that the Twins’ lineup and rotation have stabilized. Drew Butera caught 4 of the 8 contests between the teams. Alexi Casilla got into 4 games at 2B with Orlando Hudson out. Michael Cuddyer got 3 starts at 3B, significantly weakening the left side IF defense. Nick Punto and Trevor Plouffe split 3 starts at SS. And Jim Thome only got four starts at DH. Here, the damage caused by Morneau’s absence in the final analysis is mitigated somewhat because he only started four games against the Rays before his concussion knocked him to the sidelines.

The Twins’ rotation will also be significantly different from the arms Tampa faced in the regular season. The Rays got Pavano twice (6 runs in 12.1 innings), Liriano once (and were thoroughly dominated), and Duensing once (6 innings, 3 runs), but also got two cracks at Baker (but failed, as Baker dominated them), one at Slowey, and one at Blackburn (who was bombed). And again, the relief core proved unreliable, with 15 runs allowed (and 10 runners inherited scored) in 20.2 innings. But, as before, much of that damage was done without Capps or Fuentes available.

Unfortunately, it’s difficult to tell what the Rays’ postseason lineup is going to look like, given their roster flexibility. Where, for instance, does Ben Zobrist play? He’s manened CF and 1B versus the Twins, but could also play RF or 2B. Does Brandon Jennings make the postseason roster? Which struggling hitter, Carlos Pena or Manny Aybar, sits? Will lefty-hitting catcher be allowed to play against Liriano and Duensing, or will the disappointing Kelly Shoppach platoon?

Perhaps even more interesting is the pitching staff. Lefty David Price would undoubtedly pitch twice in a five game series against the lefty-heavy Twins. Then, what do the Rays do with former stalwart James Shields and his 4.86 ERA? Conceivably, he could be entirely left off in favor of Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, and Matt Garza, but will the Rays feel they can afford to bench the franchise leader in victories, even though he's been their worst starter?

Again, despite the Twins’ record against the Rays, they look like they could be evenly matched. But there are probably too many questions surrounding the team’s playoff construction to answer definitively.

What we do know, however, is that the Twins’ record against both teams is deceiving. They were not significantly outscored in either case, and their reconstituted roster and newfound health (Morneau withstanding) means that either opponent is in for more than they got during the regular season.

What the Playoffs Mean

This morning, Aaron Gleeman rebutted Jim Souhan’s contention that the Twins would be better off not making the playoffs, noting that “Getting into the playoffs thanks only to an awful division and being a thoroughly mediocre team with tons of flaws and late-season injuries to key players aren't things that necessarily keep teams from having success in the postseason because having success in the postseason is an unpredictable mix of skill and luck played out over the course of at most 19 games.” Technically, of course, Gleeman’s right. With enough luck, pluck, and gumption, even the 82 win St. Louis Cardinals managed to win the World Series in 2004. If the Twins get hot, they have a realistic chance of winning the tournament (especially if they play their best team in the field, which they are currently not doing by leaving Carlos Gomez and Brendan Harris on the bench). It is a smaller chance than the Yankees, Red Sox, or Cardinals have, but it’s still a possibility.

Gleeman doesn’t mention, and Souhan probably has never thought about, the most important reason why Twins fans should care about the team making the postseason…money. In Baseball Between the Numbers (2006), Nate Silver argues that “a team receives a long-term benefit to its regular season attendance as a result of reaching the postseason. In addition, making the playoffs brings the bonus of getting to play some number of additional home games in front of a packed house at higher-than-normal ticket prices.” Likewise, playoff appearances have additional benefits, including richer local media contracts, higher regular-season attendance the following year, more concessions sold, etc. In all, Silver calculated that a playoff appearance is worth approximately $25 million.

This extra $25 million or so will help a team to loosen otherwise tight budgetary restrictions, especially if that team plays in a smaller market. The Twins must maximize revenue streams and minimize expenses (as much as is practical) to afford the level of talent necessary for the team to compete again and again for a playoff spot. It is a cycle of success that can, at least in part, fund and sustain itself as long as a team continues to produce talent from the farm system, and does not significantly waste resources (ahem, Livan Hernandez, Luis Ayala, ahem). Teams can use their ability to get to the postseason in one year as a springboard to get to it the next.

The Twins have one glaring problem looming on the horizon, even as they get ready to enter a new stadium and reap the benefits associated with being able to charge higher prices: Joe Mauer’s impending free agency (after 2010) and the additional dollars the team is going to have to shell out as its cores get older and more expensive. It is essential, for the team to feel reasonably confident it can get to the playoffs and share in that cash bonanza at least every other season, particularly if it is going to shell out $20-25 million a year for Mauer’s services over the first part of the Twenty-Teens.


Fig. 1: Your new god.

The Common Man believes that the Twins will sign Mauer to a long-term extension regardless; however, for the team to maintain its core and to build upon that core, it will have to have that additional playoff money. Scott Baker, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, and Joe Nathan are all about to get more expensive (or continue to be expensive). Nick Punto is going to continue to eat money for doing little. And eventually, the team is going to have to think about whether to lock up Kevin Slowey, Denard Span, and Jason Kubel to longer-term deals. The Twins need to make the postseason again soon just to be able to subsequently make the postseason again. The possibility Gleeman discusses of a deep run into the tournament would be icing on an otherwise very lucrative cake.