3 Questions: Tampa Bay Rays

By Bill

I really like the Rays.  They were a lot of fun to root for in 2008, once the Twins were eliminated, and again this year, though that didn't last nearly as long.  They might have been the best team in the majors, for all the good that did them, which is really something coming from an area the average citizen of which is only dimly aware that big-league baseball continues to be played after March.

But all good things that aren't backed by unlimited funds must come to an end, and there are a lot of changes in store for the Rays.  Things to think about this offseason:

1. Who's Still Around?
Everybody knows that Carl Crawford is as good as gone.  Carlos Pena too, probably, although he'd be quite a lot cheaper to retain after a .196/.325/.407 2010.  Relievers Rafael Soriano and Grant Balfour are probably gone, and Joaquin Benoit already is.  But there are rumors (or maybe more like facts) that the Rays have been playing with money they didn't really have for a while now, and that there will have to be significant cost-cutting measures soon.  Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, James Shields and B.J. Upton are all rumored to be on the block. All but Shields are in the late stages of their arbitration years, when players start to get pricey even though they're still essentially indentured servants.  Shields is in the last guaranteed year of a contract that also contains three pretty reasonable club options for 2012-14, which might make him close to the most attractive one of the bunch to some teams, even after his disastrous 2010 season.

Not all that is going to happen, of course.  It's hard to see them moving Upton so soon after losing Crawford, and if they trade Garza, they probably won't trade Shields (and vice versa).  But this might well end up being the one team that changes most from the end of 2010 to the first pitch of 2011.  Not very often that that team is also the best team from the year before, but there you have it. 

2. How Does that Infield End Up Looking?
B.J. Upton, if he's not traded, will play center, Desmond Jennings will slide nicely into that Carl Crawford LF-who's-really-a-CF role, and Matt Joyce has right (possibly in a platoon with Justin Ruggiano, a righty with a career .860 minor league OPS).  DH is more or less an open question, but the infield situation is...shaky.

You know who will play third, of course, and short is a simple question of whether they decide to keep Bartlett, in which case he'll play there, or not, in which case Reid Brignac will (and judging by 2010 and the direction in which Bartlett's career appears to be trending, I'm not sure that's not an improvement).  But the right side is a bit hard to figure out.  If Pena leaves, they've got just two players on the roster who spent more than 20 innings there last season: Ben Zobrist and Dan Johnson.  Johnson's pretty much DH-only at this point, but it seems like a terrible waste of Zobrist's talents to make him the first baseman.  He doesn't really hit enough to play there unless he reverts back to 2009 form, and his glove is just wasted there.

Zobrist is a plus defender at almost any position, and with the outfield apparently pretty full, he'd be a great fit at second.  At second, though, the Rays have Sean Rodriguez, probably an above-average overall starting second baseman, plus switch-hitting minor leaguer Elliot Johnson, who put up an impressive 2010 at AAA Durham and could step in if Rodriguez continues to look helpless against righties (Rays Indez likes them for a platoon, but that seems rather extreme to me for what was probably a small-sample-size blip in lefty/righty splits for Rodriguez).  So Zobrist is pretty much relegated to first base, which really devalues a good asset.  In a perfect world, I think, they'd either (A) trade Zobrist for a legitimate first baseman of comparable overall value, or (B) bring back Pena (or some other capable first baseman) and get Zobrist 600 plate appearances flitting around the diamond as needed, primarily 2B and RF.  But the perfect trade partner isn't always (or even usually) out there, and the Rays don't seem to have the money for option B. So you're probably looking at Zobrist-Rodriguez-Longoria-Bartlett/Brignac.  Which wouldn't be the worst thing in the world, but it sure seems like it could be better.

3. Can They Compete Anyway?
I think so.  This team will miss Crawford, as any team would, but with Jennings, they're as well-positioned to replace him as they could possibly be.  He has a lot of the same skills (more patience, probably a little less power), and might be able to cover even more ground in the field.  Pena hadn't been giving them much anyway, and they'll still have at least five good starting pitchers out of their current six (David Price, Shields, Garza, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson) to go with very good defense and, in Longoria, possibly the best player in the American League.  They'd have to see slight bounce-backs from Upton, Zobrist and Shields and a modest improvement from Brignac to offset the losses of Crawford and a big part of the 2010 bullpen, but none of that seems like too much to ask.  And it would help if they could recapture some of that 2008 magic and find a cheap-as-free reliever or two off the scrap heap who can put up a 2.00 ERA in 60 innings or so.

Anyway, competing in the AL East is an awfully hard thing to do, and there will come a time, very possibly soon, when the Rays just won't be able to do it anymore for a while.  But barring a big, sudden firesale, I just don't think that time is 2011.

Addendum: our SweetSpot Network Rays blogger, Mark, who obviously knows a lot more about all this than I do, has written a little response over at his site, The Ray Area. Go check his site out (now and on a regular basis in the future)!

Empty Seats and Empty Heads

By The Common Man

The Common Man wants to tell you a story.

Once upon a time, there was a baseball team emerging from several seasons of dismal failure and establishing a new tradition of winning baseball. The club had several exciting young players who had grown up in the organization together, and who had come to love being teammates. The baseball team played in an abhorrent indoor stadium that seemed to actively make watching baseball less fun, if such a thing were even possible. Late in September, with the team all but assured of making the postseason, the team played a weekday game in their domed monstrosity and drew just a handful over 12,400 fans.

That team is, of course...

October Ain't May

By The Common Man

With the Twins sweeping the White Sox out of the pennant race yesterday, it’s time to look forward to the coming postseason and the Twins chances of advancing to the World Series. The Twins have a winning record against the Texas Rangers (7-3 with a +15 run differential), but would not be eligible to face the Rangers in the first round, since the Wild Card winner is coming out of the AL East.

Unfortunately, the Twins have fared poorly against both the Yankees (2-4 with a -3 differential) and the Rays (3-5 with a -6 differential). So, on the surface at least, the Twins and their fans should be concerned about getting through the Division Series. But are the Twins that the Yankees and Rays will face in October the same Twins they played in May, June, and July? And are the Yankees and Rays the same clubs they were?

Let’s look at the Twins starters through six games with the Yankees. The bad news is that the Yankees had to go up against Justin Morneau six times and still beat the Twins this year. Morneau, obviously, is unlikely to contribute much in the postseason, even if he is added to the roster. More likely, the Yankees will face off against Michael Cuddyer at 1B, which is a huge defensive downgrade. The good news is that Cuddyer’s shift opens up additional playing time for Jason Kubel (who played only 4 games against the Bombers, Delmon Young (who also played 4). This, and the fact that Drew Butera should remain stapled to the bench throughout the postseason (meaning Joe Mauer won’t have to DH), will provide additional opportunities for Jim Thome (who only got into 2 games). That lineup shifting may not be enough to make up for the run differential itself though, especially with Morneau sitting out.

However, the Yankees faced off against just three of the Twins starters, facing Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, and Nick Blackburn twice each. They met little success against Liriano, who limited them to 5 runs in 13 innings, while striking out 14. They teed off Scott Baker in their first meeting (5 runs in 6 innings), but he shut them down for five innings in his second start. And Blackburn also proved largely stymieing (5 runs in 13 innings). The Yankees are not likely, however, to face Baker. It may face Blackburn, who has a 1.71 ERA in 31 innings since being recalled from the minors, but only in a game 4. New York is more likely to have to go against Liriano, Carl Pavano, and Brian Duensing in games 1-3.

The main problem for the Twins was their bullpen performance. In 14 innings, the Twins relievers gave up five home runs, and allowed 5 of 6 inherited runners to score, in addition to allowing 9 runs of their own. It was a miserable performance. And this is where the Twins may have made up significant ground on the Yankees, as they have significantly bolstered their bullpen with the additions of Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes, and with the reemergence of Jesse Crain. Their success pushes Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, and Jose Mijares into lower-leverage roles. And other relievers like Alex Burnett and Ron Mahay will not be part of the post-season pen.

The Yankees, meanwhile, are dealing with a hobbled Alex Rodriguez, a concussed Jorge Posada, a brittle Andy Pettitte, a slumping Robinson Cano, and an ineffective Derek Jeter. And when the teams played earlier this year, the only players likely to play in the playoffs who did not get a crack at the Twins were Posada (who played in 2 games) and Curtis Granderson (who did not play at all). In all, the teams look well-matched.

Similarly, the Twins who faced the Rays are vastly different from who Tampa will see now that the Twins’ lineup and rotation have stabilized. Drew Butera caught 4 of the 8 contests between the teams. Alexi Casilla got into 4 games at 2B with Orlando Hudson out. Michael Cuddyer got 3 starts at 3B, significantly weakening the left side IF defense. Nick Punto and Trevor Plouffe split 3 starts at SS. And Jim Thome only got four starts at DH. Here, the damage caused by Morneau’s absence in the final analysis is mitigated somewhat because he only started four games against the Rays before his concussion knocked him to the sidelines.

The Twins’ rotation will also be significantly different from the arms Tampa faced in the regular season. The Rays got Pavano twice (6 runs in 12.1 innings), Liriano once (and were thoroughly dominated), and Duensing once (6 innings, 3 runs), but also got two cracks at Baker (but failed, as Baker dominated them), one at Slowey, and one at Blackburn (who was bombed). And again, the relief core proved unreliable, with 15 runs allowed (and 10 runners inherited scored) in 20.2 innings. But, as before, much of that damage was done without Capps or Fuentes available.

Unfortunately, it’s difficult to tell what the Rays’ postseason lineup is going to look like, given their roster flexibility. Where, for instance, does Ben Zobrist play? He’s manened CF and 1B versus the Twins, but could also play RF or 2B. Does Brandon Jennings make the postseason roster? Which struggling hitter, Carlos Pena or Manny Aybar, sits? Will lefty-hitting catcher be allowed to play against Liriano and Duensing, or will the disappointing Kelly Shoppach platoon?

Perhaps even more interesting is the pitching staff. Lefty David Price would undoubtedly pitch twice in a five game series against the lefty-heavy Twins. Then, what do the Rays do with former stalwart James Shields and his 4.86 ERA? Conceivably, he could be entirely left off in favor of Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, and Matt Garza, but will the Rays feel they can afford to bench the franchise leader in victories, even though he's been their worst starter?

Again, despite the Twins’ record against the Rays, they look like they could be evenly matched. But there are probably too many questions surrounding the team’s playoff construction to answer definitively.

What we do know, however, is that the Twins’ record against both teams is deceiving. They were not significantly outscored in either case, and their reconstituted roster and newfound health (Morneau withstanding) means that either opponent is in for more than they got during the regular season.