3 Questions: Pittsburgh Pirates

By The Common Man

In an evil way, The Common Man kind of digs looking at these teams (like the Astros and Diamondbacks) who are poised to be bad. It certainly makes TCM feel better about the Twins. But there is little joy in looking at the Pirates, who have not had a winning season since 1992 and had their worst squad since 1952 on the field last year. As TCM used to work for the Pirates in a roundabout fashion, he still feels a small connection to the Buccos, and watching them flopping about the National League like a fish out of water and trying to hold a baseball bat is a bit painful. But given that he’s committed to do the whole of the National League in this 3 Questions series, here are the biggest questions facing the Pirates. As always, you can read our previous 3 Questions entries here.

Question 1: Have they hit bottom yet?

How do you know if you’ve hit rock bottom? TCM would have figured that the Bucs had hit bottom in 2009, when they traded long-time starters Freddie Sanchez and Jack Wilson (after trading Jason Bay the previous summer), along with Nyjer Morgan and Nate McLouth. Sure the team was going to play badly, but they picked up good young prospects in the deals and a fresh start would probably help the roster a little. But then, like Lindsey Lohan, they continued to stumble and fall further from relevancy.

Despite playing in a neutral park, the pitchers sported a 5.00 ERA and allowed a full run/game more than the league average. Likewise, the team featured the worst offense in the National League, scoring just 3.62 runs/game thanks, in large part, to a .304 team OBP. They lost 105 games and based on the runs they scored and those they allowed, they should have lost 109. Is any of this likely to improve in 2011? Frankly, it’s hard to see how it could get worse?

Question 2: Where are they better?

Ryan Doumit is going to give way to Chris Snyder full time, which is a step back offensively, but a defensive upgrade. If Snyder’s healthy, he’ll probably be an improvement. Former catcher Neil Walker is going to get in a full season at 2B, as is Pedro Alvarez at 3B, meaning that massive disappointments Andy LaRoche and Delwyn Young won’t be dragging down the rest of the offense. Jose Tabata had an underappreciated rookie campaign and sounds ready to build on that over a full campaign, and Andrew McCutchen remains one of the best young players in the league. Lyle Overbay has put up acceptable offensive numbers in the AL East, and may thrive in a move to the NL Central and to PNC Park, though his arrival moves Garrett Jones to RF, where the Bucs will take a defensive hit.

The pitching will be improved simply because of some subtraction. Zach Duke is out, and James McDonald is in for a full season. Charlie Morton simply can’t pitch any worse than he did. And the team’s signings of Scott Olsen, Kevin Correia, Wil Ledezma, and Brian Burres certainly can’t hurt. But the team’s nemesis has been its defense and it’s hard to see that they’ve improved that. Garrett Jones is huge defensive drop in RF. Alvarez is a defensive disaster that will have to be moved to 1B soon. Every defensive metric absolutely hates Neil Walker and Ronny Cedeno (despite his reputation as a glove man) up the middle. Even McCutchen, with his great speed, gets poor marks in CF. Last year, according to xFIP, the defense cost the Pirates about half a run on top of the pitchers’ ERA. It could be even worse in 2011, given the expanded roles for Walker and Alvarez. So, from a run-prevention standpoint, at least, there isn’t a lot of room for improvement in 2011.

Question 3: But are they at least on the right track?

You know, for as bad as they’re likely to be again (probably 95 losses), they still seem to be moving in the right direction. They are not over-committing to veteran mediocrities, instead bringing in Overbay on a one-year deal to plug a hole. They are letting the prospects play, giving them plenty of opportunity to develop (with the exception of Lastings Milledge, but every team seems to give up on him so there’s probably a good reason). Their handling of Ryan Doumit has been strange, to say the least, but he could still end up being useful to the Pirates or another team, if they can build up his value enough to trade him. And they’re dealing productive veterans for additional young players. They’ve got a lot of good young pitchers on the farm, and a nice young catcher in Tony Sanchez coming up.

This is a team that, like the Royals, has a chance to be frisky in 2012 and might break .500 in 2013. That’s hard to say to Pirates right now, given Pittsburgh’s historic run of futility, but TCM is hopeful that the Pirates are on the verge of turning things around. Maybe he still has that luxury, though, because he can watch from a distance. Sorry, Pirates fans.  For what it's worth, you still have the best damn logo in the league.

History and Josh Beckett are Totally Cool with Each Other, Actually

Yesterday, Craig Calcaterra pointed to a story by the Boston Herald's John Tomase in which he claimed that pitchers who have seasons like Josh Beckett's 2010 historically have had a really difficult time coming back:

So what are we talking about? Thanks to the magic of baseball-reference.com, it was easy to sort for pitchers in their 30s who posted ERAs above 5.75 while pitching at least 125 innings.
The search returned 69 such seasons by 66 different pitchers....
Of those 66 pitchers, only three managed to regain something even remotely approximating their form, at least as starters.

Here's that list. And he's right, it sure does look ugly. But while Tomase himself notes that these results "have no bearing on whether Beckett will bounce back in 2011," he does say that they "should at least give Red Sox fans pause," and that "the game's entire history is working against him." But should it, and is it?

SweetSpot Roundup 1/12

Capitol Avenue Club (Braves): Our Thoughts on Andruw Jones and the HOF
Is Andruw Jones a Hall of Famer?  The CAC boys fisk his candidacy.

Disciples of Uecker (Brewers): Notable At-Bats of 2010, John Axford v. Justin Morneau
An interesting new feature where Jack breaks down some interesting ABs from the preceding year.

View From the Bleachers (Cubs): Breaking Down Both Sides of the Garza Trade
SweetSpot cooperation.  It warms the heart and the cockles. 

Dodger Thoughts: Dee Gordon, How Close Is He?
"While Jamey Carroll has shown he can fill in for Furcal, a prolonged absence conceivably could compel the Dodgers to accelerate Gordon's timetable, allowing him to reach the majors this summer."  But will he be ready?

Bay City Ball (Giants): Regression in 2011?
"I think it’s important to bear in mind, that they don’t just hand you a pennant because you won last year. Baseball is a game where you have to improve just to keep up with everybody else."

Mets Today: Will Luis Castillo Be the Starting Second Baseman?
Joe doesn't think letting Castillo compete for the 2B job is necessarily a good idea, given the need to balance the opportunities of him and the other candidates in Spring Training.

Nationals Baseball: A failure of goals, not of actions
"I find it hard to be angry with Mike Rizzo for this failing. The fault was not in his actions. He made moves and offers that could have easily brought in the players he wanted. The fault was in his... let's say, overly optimistic point of view."

Ducksnorts (Padres): Padres Top 20 Prospects
The Padres may have had a great offseason, but their minor league system is not quite as awesome.

Crashburn Alley (Phillies): Are Jayson Werth and Bobby Abreu Overrated?
Bored, Bill responds to a particularly insipid article that claims that Werth, Abreu, and Lastings Millege (wha?) amongst others are somehow "overrated."

Redleg Nation: Chemistry Class
Will the loss of Orlando Cabrera and Arthur Rhodes really hurt the Reds' chemistry?

Fire Brand of the American League (Red Sox): Lester Is the Ace, but Lackey Is the Leader
Charlie revisits his August criticism of John Lackey, and looks on the bright side (of which there is plenty).

Sox Machine (White Sox): Pierre's best bunting days may be behind him
A study suggests that Juan Pierre is no longer much good at all at bunting, which used to be considered one of his only skills.  Jim assures/reminds us that that doesn't really matter all that much.

The Daily Fungo (Tigers): Today's Tiger: Warren Morris
"If you keep trying to remove the memory of 2003 only to be reminded by, well, us, we’re about to hurt your effort a bit further. Today we’re looking back on infielder Warren Morris."  We exist to cause and/or prolong pain.

Royals Authority: Now THIS Is a Youth Movement
The perpetually young Royals could field the youngest team in their history in 2011.  That's a good thing when you've got a team that may also be the stinkiest.  (I kid, but in two years or so this team is going to win 159 games in a season.)

Nick's Twins Blog: Swapping Sluggers?
With the Rangers rumored to be pursuing Jim Thome, Nick looks at the possibility of the Twins striking back and grabbing Vlad Guerrero. I really, really want Thome to come back, on a non-analytical level, but I can see how this would be a good idea.

It's About the Money, Stupid (Yankees): 'Roids and Greenies
Larry with a long, thorough, well-researched, long look at the two PEDs in which he takes issue with the arguments of Jim Caple, Rob Neyer and others that they're comparable.  I come down solidly on the Caple/Neyer side and I don't think the research says nearly as much as Larry does, but it's a very thoughtful and thought-provoking piece.

Baseballin' on a Budget (A's): Top Fives: Best Left Fielders in Team History
You know number one, of course.  You might know number two (think franchise, not just Oakland).  I'm almost positive you won't get three through five.

Pro Ball NW (Mariners): 2011 Mariners Prospect Report: Infielders
The top ten second basemen, third basemen and shortstops in the system.  #1 is awfully exciting.  Also, if you haven't yet, watch this (but you may well have seen it by now, so don't be disappointed).

The Ray Area: Can Hellickson Go 150+?
Trying to analyze the best pitching prospect's ability to stay healthy over the course of a full MLB season.

Baseball Time in Arlington (Rangers): Thome-to-Texas Redux
Revisiting the possible Thome signing.  That is a really, really impressive lineup.   

Ghostrunner on First (Blue Jays): An Interesting Spin on an Age-Old Tale
A funny take on tweets from/about two Blue Jays players that suggest that they may not be, as they say, In the Best Shape of Their Lives.

Also, make sure you check out Bill's post yesterday that reviews Bill James' HOF predictions circa 1995 and TCM ranking each team's offseason performance.

Whatever Happened to Bill James' Predictions for the Hall of Fame?

By Bill

Yesterday, a piece over on the Yankees blog Pinstripe Alley incited a little lively discussion (and some ridicule) on Twitter, when the author, jscape2000, noted Nate Silver's observation that there are historically about 35 players active at any given time who go on to become Hall of Famers, and went on to make some guesses as to who those future Hall of Famers are at this moment.  And while you might argue with some of his picks (particularly picking Yadier Molina to end up in the "Tier One" camp; he's had a pretty decent start to his career and everything, but he's not going to make anybody forget about Bench or Piazza), I think the idea is a perfectly good one.

It reminded me, however, that in his 1995 book Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame? (previously published in '94 under the alternative, more provocative title The Politics of Glory), the great Bill James had made a similar set of projections and predictions, using his Hall of Fame Monitor tool and some educated guesswork to project the BBWAA Hall of Fame inductees for the next 25 years, covering 1995 through 2019.

That's necessarily an inexact science -- I remembered in particular that Ruben Sierra was on the list -- but I wondered how the rest of it came out.  And it turns out that not only did I still have the book, permitting me to see it for myself, but through the magic of the internet, I can show you!  I thought I'd take a look at each year's picks and see how he did.  The number in parentheses is that player's year on the ballot that the predicted year would have represented:

1995: Mike Schmidt (1), Jim Rice (1)
There's a fun one right off the bat.  Schmidt sailed in with 97% of the vote, while Jim Ed garnered less than 30% and, as we all know, had a long, tough fight ahead.  James has quite famously battled against the dramatic overstatements of Rice's case, comparing him to Yankee contemporary Roy White (who got zero votes in 1985), but clearly didn't trust the writers to see it his way.  It's also appropriate that these two show up together given Schmidt's recent comments; whatever the other failings of the BBWAA, at least they saw the situation more clearly than Schmidt does.

Off Season Winners and Abject Disappointments

 By The Common Man

With news that the Rangers are in hot pursuit of Jim Thome, The Common Man wondered where, exactly, the Twins’ frustratingly inactive and misspent offseason ranks in the MLB.  So he decided to rank the 30 teams according to how impressive their offseasons have been, adusting for resources available, expectations, and where the team is in the success cycle, to see who had the worst offseason to date.  And away we go, with a surprise, #1:

3 Questions: Detroit Tigers

Determined to jump back into things in 2011 after dropping from first to third in 2010, the Tigers have gone out and spent a ton of money in the last couple months.  They've added while the Twins have subtracted.  But, of course, the White Sox are out there too.

1. What did they buy with all that money?
They've resigned Magglio Ordonez, Jhonny Peralta and Brandon Inge to pretty nice deals, but this is about the new guys, two players to whom they've committed $66.5 million dollars (not all this year, though, that would be a record).

Victor Martinez, who just turned 32 before Christmas, signed a deal that will pay him either $12 or $13 million for each of the next four years.  He's been an eerily consistent, very good hitter over his last six healthy seasons, posting wRC+es of 121, 129, 126, 130, 130, and 126.  And for at least the next year or two, there's no reason to expect him not to just keep doing that.

Blogfight, A Gentleman's Game

By The Common Man

First of all, Bill, The Common Man cannot believe we're fighting over Jack Morris, about whom TCM doesn't really care if he gets into the Hall or not.  But, like the ACLU, you have to defend a few Klansmen before you can defend a gay teenager who just wants to go to Prom.  It's the principle of the thing.