Monday, April 20, 2009

Not Keepers

Break up the band! The streak is over!

No, seriously...

Everyone is so bent out of shape over the Marlins' hot start. Indeed, so hot has Florida been that has named them the #1 team in baseball in their Power Rankings. Well, The Common Man is not fooled. Before the season started, The Common Man had them pegged as a .500 squad, and this streak they've been on (until last night, when they were squelched 8-0 by the intimidating arm of Ross Ohlendorf (and his career 5.96 ERA).

Sure, as his good friend Bill has pointed out, they've earned their success (though Bill puts the kabosh on that pretty fast. They lead the National League in scoring, and are third in runs allowed, per game. The much bally-hooed (and completely unsustainable) start by Emilio Bonafacio (.321/.345/.434), the resurgence of Jeremy Hermida (.300/.451/.600), the rise of C John Baker (.333/.421/.545), and the hot start of Jorge Cantu (.368/.442/.605)are driving the engine, while the bullpen has shined in supporting what has mostly been a good 4 man rotation thusfar.

But come on, Marlin fans. Can you really put any faith in a team that lost to Livan Hernandez? That couldn't figure out Ross Ohlendorf? That has bolstered their record by beating Washington six times? Is that really an accomplishment? At this point, it's like beating up Milhouse after he thinks his parents have died. They've lost all hope, are numb, and welcome the beating so that maybe, just maybe, they will feel something.

At this point, The Common Man is forced to admit that it's likely the Fish will end up above .500. Their rotation is fairly solid, and perhaps they have found a decent mix of retreads in their bullpen (which the aforementioned Nationals are drooling over). Hermida's probably a good player, and Uggla is going to get better, as will Cameron Maybin (he has to, or he'll be replaced by someone who is). And Hanley Ramirez has yet to get on track. But every other hitter is likely to regress severely and the Fish will eventually be forced soon to give Andrew Miller his turn every fifth day (and as they have found out for the last year or so, that's bound to get ugly). And by the end of the season, that #1 finish after week two is going to look awfully silly (especially after Uggla and Cantu are unloaded at midseason).

Then again, maybe The Common Man won't complain. It beats the hell out of everyone talking Yankees and Red Sox.


Bill said...

Crap, man, I need an editor. I clicked on the link to my own post and had to go fix all the typos.

The Marlins only get to play the Nationals like 12 or 13 more times...I guess over .500 can happen (I called them for 78 wins, and four games is well within the range of some continued good luck), but I don't see it being "likely." I hope it happens, though. They're a fun team to watch when they're playing well.

tHeMARksMiTh said...

Hey, the Pirates are pitching really well right now. Say what you want but number one in ERA is number one.