One Trade Deadline Is Enough (or one too many)

By Bill


All the news today (aside from the very sad news about Mike Flanagan) has to do with waivers. Players on waivers, players claimed off of waivers, players staying put because their team can't make a deal with the one team they're allowed to trade with because that team claimed the guy on waivers.

It's a pretty ridiculous process, and the results are boring and almost entirely meaningless. Hill and McDonald for Johnson. Kevin Kouzmanoff for nobody, really. There's a lot of stuff that could happen over the next week or so...but it probably won't.

Not that there haven't been big deals in the past. This page chronicles a lot of them, through 2000 (Bagwell for Anderson and Smoltz for Alexander being the biggest). But mostly, it's garbage. Alex Rios for literally nothing. The Rangers reacquire a used-up Ivan Rodriguez from the Astros, the Twins reacquire a used-up Eddie Guardado from the Rangers. And so on.

My question is: what's the point? What good are these rules doing? TCM covers a bit of the history of the trade deadline here, a history involving Babe Ruth and names like Joe Dugan and Irish Meusel and is recounted in much more detail here. The point of the original trade deadline, writes Brian Cronin -- and for a long time, it was June 15, not July 31 -- was to benefit poorer, less successful teams by preventing your New York Yankees and Giants from attempting to buy a championship, with cash, late in the season.

The Five Greatest Trade Deadlines in Baseball History

By The Common Man

The trade deadline looms on Sunday, and we’ve already seen some rather large deals. Beltran’s gone, Rasmus has been chained to a chair and put on a train out of Springfield…er, St. Louis, and can you believe somebody actually wanted Kosuke Fukudome? Most of the action has been late this year, with so many teams seeing that they have shots at the postseason and with what seems like relatively few truly valuable commodities readily available. It’s made TCM wonder how this deadline compares to deadlines of the past.

The trade deadline, as we know it, is actually not terribly old. Brian Cronin, of The Fabulous Forum, traces the origin of the trade deadline to the 1920s, when owners banded together to stop Harry Frazee from trading players to the Yankees in the middle of a pennant race. They set the trade deadline at June 15, which would be early enough, conceivably, that most teams would still have theoretical shots at the postseason, and actual contenders might still not have given up on some of their weakest players turning it around. As such, deadline activity was relatively light for much of the 20th century.

The June 15 deadline stayed in place until 1985, when baseball’s labor agreement was set to expire yet again, and players were threatening the second mid-season strike of the decade. In August, the owners and players came to an agreement (which then, of course, the owners proceeded to ignore and collude against the players). As part of that peace accord, owners and players agreed to move the trade deadline to July 31, while setting a separate deadline, contingent on players passing through waivers, on August 31. There was almost no coverage or analysis of this provision in the media at that time.

Twins Need to Regroup and Reload For 2012

It took 20 runs on 27 hits, with three errors on defense and four walks allowed to beat into The Common Man that it’s time for the Twins to write off 2011. This is a Twins team that has a core of players that could, potentially, go on a run and become a factor in a very poor AL Central. But the fact remains that the Twins are seven games back and looking up at three teams, at least two of which are probably actually better than they are in terms of true talent.


It’s nice to get Jason Kubel back. And Denard Span will be a nice addition to the lineup when he’s fully recovered from his concussion. And even Justin Morneau might be able to come back before the year is done. But the fact remains that none of them are going to be able to pitch out of the bullpen and none of them are going to be able to stabilize a starting rotation that has proven to be a huge disappointment. Baseball Prospectus gives Minnesota a 3.2% chance to make the postseason, while CoolStandings gives them just a 1.1% shot. It’s time to face the fact that this Twins team probably is not good enough, as it’s currently constructed, to come back this year.

In light of that sad reality, it’s important for the Twins to maximize the value they can still get out of this season by engaging in a limited firesale. Not everybody has to go, but the following players absolutely should.

Must Go:

Michael Cuddyer

Cuddy is the Twins most tradable asset at this point. He’s at .296/.371/.466 for the year with 14 homers. He’s a gen-u-ine, certified All Star. He also at least appears to be flexible enough on defense to make him a possibility for a number of teams. He’s also a free agent at the end of 2011, making him an ideal rental player for teams with long-term payroll concerns. With the glut of outfielders the Twins currently have on their roster and coming up through the minors, Cuddyer is very expendable. He also might be the second best bat available on the market, behind Carlos Beltran. The trouble, of course, is that the Twins have publically said they’re not interested in dealing him, and that they actually would like to re-sign him this offseason (undoubtedly to a huge contract that Cuddyer won’t be worth). Trading him now might interfere with those plans (yes, please).

The Giants have shown a lot of interest, though they could be using that as leverage to drop the price on Carlos Beltran. The Phillies or the Pirates may also want an outfield bat who they can use for their stretch runs. Or, and here’s a crazy thought, perhaps the Brewers might want to use him at 3B.

Night Capps

Last night’s deal for Matt Capps still has The Common Man reeling, and not in a good way. The finest of Twins bloggers have weighed in today already on the trade, coming down firmly on the side of the Angels…er, Nationals. Indeed, Wilson Ramos may not be a franchise catcher in the Mauer mold, but it has been clear for a long time that he’s at least a competent starter. And if a nearly ready starting catcher isn’t worth more than a one-inning reliever, then we’re living in a crazy world people.

It’s not that Capps is a bad pitcher. With a career FIP of 3.79, Capps is probably going to be a decent pitcher at the back of the bullpen. His GB rate is a frightening 37.8% given the Twins outfield defense, but he offers more strikeouts than Rauch, and fewer walks. But the Twins didn’t pay for a decent pitcher. They paid for a proven closer with a future starting catcher and with a young lefty reliever. And, frankly, Capps never would have been closing, and therefore would have never been an All Star if he were ever on a team with a halfway decent bullpen. Essentially, the culture of Major League Baseball, where “closer” is considered a position rather than a role, and where saves are a magic pixie dust that lets pitchers appear more beautiful, smart, funny, vivacious, and effective than they really are. The Twins buy this culture hook, line, and sinker, refusing to learn the lessons of Rick Aguilera, Mike Trombley, Eddie Guardado, Joe Nathan, and Jon Rauch: Damn near anyone can be made into a closer.

This trade does make the Twins marginally better this year. Jon Rauch slides back into a setup role, and Guerrier, Crain, and Mijares into the 6-7 inning spots. Everybody can get a little more rest, and everyone can be a little more effective. And Nick Blackburn can rebuild his value as a starter at AAA (presumably, it’s also conceivable that SlamaTime is over).

But all of this shuffling makes the Twins, maybe, a game better in 2010. And will allow the Twins to let Crain, Guerrier, and/or Rauch to walk after the season ends. Capps is going to get expensive, but the Twins will probably be willing to absorb that cost on the chance that Nathan’s effectiveness suffers, a la Francisco Liriano.

Is it all worth it? The Common Man is of the mind that Ramos was both too valuable to give up for a reliever (let alone Ramos + another player), but not valuable enough to acquire a starting pitcher on his own. The Twins would have been better served to hold onto Ramos until they could get a better return, or package him with others for a better player. To simply treat Ramos as though he were worse than Kevin Mulvey (whom the Twins traded straight up for Jon Rauch last year) is simply stupid by Twins GM Bill Smith.

Here are some other links that make The Common Man feel better about his day, and forget about this terrible trade:

Brand new dad Bill at The Daily Something is back with a reminder that the Twins aren’t the only team with an incompetent GM.


Lest you think everybody’s mad at Bill Smith, Jesse at Twinkie Town, Andrew Kneeland of Twins Target, and the always hilarious Fanatic Jack are big fans of the move. Though with most things, if you agree with Jack, it’s best to recheck your math.


Bryce Harper’s Facebook page has apparently been invaded by Scott Boras, who inexplicably stole Harper’s shirt and is typing ridiculous things like “Probably going back to CSN to try to win a National Championship!!! :)” Good try Scott, The Common Man is on to you. (h/t to Craig at Hardball Talk)


If you haven’t yet heard this week’s brilliant podcast, featuring The Common Man, Bill from The Daily Something, and Lar from Wezenball, here it is. No more excuses:

Listen to internet radio with TheCommonMan on Blog Talk Radio

And finally, the Madison branch of TCM’s favorite non-baseball site, The AV Club has a new post up on 6 in game moments in need of a sponsor. They’re all good, but none can compare to:

The Vagi-Gard Medicated Disposable Douche [sponsors] Starting The Wave
There’s always some sh*tfaced a**clown in the stands who tries to start the wave that (we wish) would end all waves. More often than not, this takes place during the pivotal moments of a close game or, more often of late, when Milwaukee is trailing by eight runs and the impending defeat is just beginning to set in. In moments like these, doesn’t one medicated disposable douche deserve another?

Forget About Dan Haren, Twins Fans

The Common Man has been writing a lot about his Twins lately, and he hopes you’ll indulge him one last time this week. This morning, Nick Nelson, of the excellent Nick’s Twins Blog, was tossing around the suggestion that the Twins should offer to include Kyle Gibson to the Diamondbacks to try and get Dan Haren. It would be a bold move, for certain, and would probably give the Twins the edge needed to secure a playoff spot this year.

But trading for Haren has longer term ramifications for the team. While Haren’s contract, which calls for $12.75 million over the next two years, plus a $15.5 million team option (with a $3 mill buyout) for 2013), is perfectly reasonable given his ability and performance, Haren’s contract would create a significant problem for a mid-market club like the Twins.

Twins fans would like to think that the club’s coffers are bottomless, now that they’ve got a new cash cow of a stadium. And indeed, the Twins are poised to have their most profitable year in team history, given the attendance at the new park, the attendant increase in food prices, and the additional merch sales associated with the popularity of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, the stadium, Delmon Young, Carl Pavano, Orlando Hudson, JJ Hardy, Denard Span, and Jim Thome. But the Twins anticipated this rise in revenue and adjusted the team’s payroll accordingly, from $65 million to $97.5 million. Again, the Twins increased payroll by roughly 50% in 2010. The Common Man doesn’t know what the upper limit of the Twins payroll is going forward, but he imagines that the team is getting close.

Which is a problem because, according to the essential Cot’s Contracts, the Twins are already on the hook for $72 million next year to eight players (Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Nathan, Baker, Harris, Blackburn, and Span), and that doesn’t even include the hefty arbitration raises that will be due to Delmon Young, Francisco Liriano, and Kevin Slowey. Nor does it include the $5.5 million team option on Jason Kubel the Twins are sure to pick up. Plus, the Twins will have to decide whether to exercise Nick Punto’s $4 million option next year and whether to re-up Orlando Hudson or pursue another 2B. Carl Pavano is a free agent after this year, and the Twins will have to decide whether to offer him arbitration (that would net him at least $10 million if he accepts). Plus, the club will have to reconfigure its bullpen, with Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, and Matt Guerrier all eligible for free agency. Adding Danny Haren to the club would up their commitment to at least $85 million, and that would only cover 9 players.

Call The Common Man crazy, but here’s a best guess at how the Twins payroll and roster would shape up for the club next year if the status quo holds:


(click to embiggen)

A couple of notes: The Twins probably can’t afford to pick up Punto’s $5 million option next year, especially if they want to commit to a real 2B. Punto might be persuaded to come back for less money, however. All the arbitration estimates are only TCM’s best estimate. He doesn’t really know, but assumes that he’s on the low side for each of Hardy, Young, Liriano, and Slowey. TCM doesn’t think the Twins can commit to a payroll that would stretch much beyond the $110 million here, meaning they’d be fairly well locked into this roster all offseason while other teams in the division are improving. No matter what, it’s going to be especially hard to compete in the AL Central next year. Looking at the above list, the only scenario that would make sense for the Twins would be to turn around and trade Haren again in the offseason, a la Cliff Lee, for prospects. But there’s no real guarantee the team will be able to get significant value for him, and GM Bill Smith has shown himself to be a mediocre trader at best.

But that necessarily raises the question of how much the Twins should be willing to part with to acquire Haren. Gibson is a potential stud, a legitimate #2 starter, with potential to be a 1.5. Before the season, KLaw wrote “The knock on him in the draft was the lack of a real knockout pitch, and he may never have one, but he's fairly polished, with above-average command and control, and should move quickly if the arm issue is behind him.” Kevin Goldstein gave him four stars. And this year, Gibson has impressed the Twins with his dominant performance at Fort Myers (1.87 ERA, 3.33 K/BB, 8.3 K/9 in 7 starts) and solid work at AA New Britain as a 22 year old (4.31 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 2.75 K/BB). Plus, he’s given up just five homers in 114 total innings across the two levels, showing impressive sink on his fastball. It is not a stretch to suggest that Gibson could be up and helping the Twins in the second half of 2011.

It simply does not make sense to send away a pitcher with Gibson’s future, who will be under team control for 6 years, making the league minimum for three, for someone making $12.75 million and who can’t stay here for more than a few months. Better for the Twins to focus on upgrading the Blackburn/Duensing spot in the rotation with Ted Lilly, Fausto Carmona, or Ben Sheets (who will presumably come much cheaper). Yes, flags fly forever, but the Twins have a good shot at the division without Haren, and probably a better shot in 2011 too.

Update: And with Dan Haren's no trade clause specifically excluding the Twins, it seems like acquiring Haren is an even worse idea than when TCM started writing this post.

Back-Up Plans

All the news this morning is pretty distasteful to The Common Man. LeBron is gone. The Twins lost for the fourth time in five games last night. And now it looks like Cliff Lee is off the table, poised to go to the New York Yankees for Jesus Montero and other pieces. This, of course, leaves the Twins again in the lurch, two games back, with two teams in front of them, and floundering. So where do the Twins go from here? Obviously, this is a roster that needs to be improved, so who might the Twins want and who will buy what they are selling?

Pitchers

Ted Lilly
Lilly’s available, and like Lee does not require a long term salary commitment, as he’s a free agent after the season. That said, he’s not as good a pitcher as Lee, and while he’s unlikely to require the same package to acquire, the Twins might not match up well with the Cubs. Wilson Ramos is the player the Twins should be most willing to deal, but the Cubbies is set at catcher for the long term with Geovanny Soto. And TCM doesn’t think that Lilly is worth giving up an elite talent like Aaron Hicks or Kyle Gibson. As such, the Twins are left with Ben Revere and a pupu platter of pitching prospects, which doesn’t seem likely to get it done.

Roy Oswalt
Oswalt has requested a trade to a contender, and the Astros are likely to deal him. That said, he’s very expensive through 2011, and the Twins probably can’t take on that kind of salary. To get the Twins to pony up any decent prospects, the Astros would probably have to eat a lot of money, which they may not be in a position to do. Houston could use pitching and a catching prospect like Wilson Ramos. Outfielder Joe Benson may also be a possibility.

Dan Haren
Ken Rosenthal argued earlier this week that D-Backs interim GM Jerry DiPoto is unlikely to have the freedom to make a big splash at the deadline with some of his more exciting players. But if the Twins overwhelm DiPoto, he could potentially sell the team ownership to deal built around Ramos and either Benson or Angel Morales.

Javier Vazquez
Hey, the Yankees don’t need him anymore, apparently, and would love to unload the pitcher. There is no commitment beyond this year, and Vazquez has proven to be a quality pitcher everywhere he’s played that isn’t the Bronx. The Yankees are undoubtedly hoping to unload him for something to help this year, which the Twins can’t really offer (unlike the Phillies, who could (but probably shouldn’t) offer Jayson Werth). But the Twins could offer Ramos (even with the Yankees impressive catcher depth in the minors, they’re dealing one of them for Lee, Cervelli has struggled recently, and Austin Romine is still a year or two off). The Twins could also presumably build a deal around Aaron Hicks. That said, the Yankees don’t really deal for prospects, nor do they seem likely to strengthen a team who is a potential playoff opponent for the current season. Alas, Vazquez probably isn’t available to Minnesota.

Hitters

Coco Crisp
The A’s aren’t going anywhere and have a surplus of outfielders. The Twins have been dying for a decent RH backup outfielder who can play CF (no, Jason Repko doesn’t count). Crisp also doesn’t require a significant capital outlay, as he’s got a $500K buyout for next year, and will make about $2 million for the rest of the year. If the Twins can get him for a minor prospect, he’d be a nice addition.

Jose Bautista
Despite early success in 2010, the Jays have dropped 11 games back and are at .500, and need to look into dealing players. Bautista has shown a lot of power and patience this year, and actually leads the majors in homers (and has already bested his career high by 7). He’s playing way over his head, but the Twins could really use his right handedness and positional flexibility to hold down 3B, and sub in at 1B, and the OF corners as needed. Bautista is cheap, but is arbitration eligible next year, and will be due for a raise, but could be non-tendered if necessary. The Twins could look into giving up Chris Parmelee (the Jays could use a 1B prospect) and maybe a AAA pitcher like Swarzak to acquire him.

Austin Kearns
Like Crisp, Kearns would give the Twins a strong righty bat off the bench, and a good RH backup outfielder. He would be stretched in center, unfortunately, but is especially cheap (he’d cost around $300K for the rest of the year, and there are no commitments in 2011). The Indians are definitely motivated sellers, and Kearns shouldn’t cost too much in terms of prospects. The Twins could deal someone like Luke Hughes for him, giving the Indians a stopgap 3B in 2011 until Lonnie Chisenhall is ready. If Cleveland was willing to include Fausto Carmona, the Twins could probably bump the offer to include Ben Revere, Joe Benson, or Angel Morales, plus a pitcher.

Dan Uggla
Jeffrey Loria has made noises about still wanting to get in the race, but that’s just saber rattling. These fish are fried. The Marlins could use an advanced catching prospect, so Wilson Ramos would be a good fit here. Ben Revere would also provide some nice insurance in case Cameron Maybin never puts his considerable tools together. Uggla would be a great fit for the Twins, if he’s willing to move to 3B. He’s a right-handed slugger who will be arbitration eligible next year for the final time. Unfortunately, he will be expensive to hold onto long term, but that’s exactly why the Fish won’t want him. If the Twins can also pry away Leo Nunez with the addition of another prospect, that would give the Twins another cheap and reliable option at the end of games.

Christian Guzman
Hold on to your butts people, but what if the Twins reacquired Christian Guzman? The former Twins offers a great deal of positional flexibility, is a switch hitter who has always had more success against lefties, and will come unbelievably cheap from the Nats. Alright, maybe that’s crazy. But it’s better than another round of Plouffe, Tolbert, Casilla, and Harris, isn’t it? Isn’t it? A bucket of baseballs should be enough to get him.

Miguel Tejada
No, no, a thousand times no. Tejada’s looked old and slow this year, and has not adjusted well to his shift to 3B. He’s not even hitting lefties right now.

Ty Wigginton
That’s better. Wigginton’s shown a great deal of flexibility this year, sliding over to 2B to cover for Brian Roberts’ injuries. He’s a bad fielder, but would provide the offense the Twins have been lacking at the hot corner all year, and would provide a viable option at 2B and 1B when Morneau or Hudson are hurt or need time off. He’s signed only through the end of the year, and the O’s would probably take a Chris Parmelee for him.

Alberto Callaspo or Mike Aviles
Callaspo is a switch hitter, while Aviles bats righty. Both have historically done well against lefties. Callaspo has more experience at 3B than Aviles, but Aviles is capable of playing SS, which Callaspo is not. Both would be a good option to start at 3B or at least be a good right-handed bat off the bench. Neither make a prohibitive amount of money. With Alex Gordan seemingly ready to get back to the majors and Mike Moustakas absolutely wailing on the ball at AA, the Royals can jettison one of them for Ben Revere and a pitcher with little risk.

Willie Bloomquist
Just kidding.

And that’s it that’s available right now that seems to make sense for the Twins. They could use a starting pitcher and a right-handed bat, preferably on the left side of the infield, but flexible enough to take over other roles in case the club is bit by the injury bug again. A real reserve outfielder would be nice too. Also, the club probably doesn’t need to carry three lefties in its bullpen and could use either a dominant righty on the back end or could (ideally) just open up an extra spot on the bench. TCM's preference would be to acquire Crisp and/or Wigginton, and to view all the pitchers as prohibitively expensive at this point, and instead try to solve the problem that is Blackburn from within the organization. Also, the club needs to banish Butera back to the minors and call up Jose Morales yesterday.

The Fork

The Common Man wishes the Twins would just go ahead and make up their freaking minds already. On Saturday night, with the Twins a game under .500 and seemingly inventing new ways to lose against the A's and Angels, The Common Man was all set to trade Michael Cuddyer, the Twins lone tradeable commodity likely to bring back real talent (Mauer and Morneau are fixtures whose trade would timewarp the Twins fanbase back to 2000, and the rotation is doing poorly enough (and has enough health concerns) that dealing a starter is unlikely to get good value back, and most of the bullpen has negligible trade value). With the team floundering, and little on the farm likely to bring back the kind of middle infield upgrade the Twins desperately need (Ben Revere's lack of power makes him less than an ideal chip and he seems to be regarded as the future in Minny, last year's #1 pick, Aaron Hicks, has struggled in A-ball (though he's just 19), and 21-year old Wilson Ramos left his plate discipline in Fort Myers (138 PA for AA New Britain, 3 BB). Shooter Hunt looks lost, Carlos Gutierrez is still learning to be a starter, and Deolis Guerra is suddenly on fire in AA after disappointing for the last year and a half). The Twins have a bunch of flawed prospects, none of whom figure to be centerpiece quality for a blockbuster deal that will help Minnesota leapfrog both Detroit and Chicago.

Then the Twins go off and win 3 straight, including two against the White Sox, and now sit just 2 games back of Detroit. Mark Grudzielanek is hitting .333 in Rookie Ball (just 2 games, of course, but it sounds impressive). Jesse Crain has pitched well since coming back to the majors, lending some stability to the Twins pen. And now The Common Man has visions of October again (they're horrifying visions of being swept out of the playoffs by the Yankees, but still).

This is an exceedingly frustrating and confusing team...and the interwebz bear this out. Gleeman is seemingly waving a white flag (or at least a caution flag), and arguing against giving up farmhands for help. Neyer says it's too early to give up. Bill, from The Daily Something, or somebody really needs to step in here and break the tie. Because The Common Man is paralyzed by his own frustration and fervent fandom here. He wants to see this team win, but this club has angered The Common Man far more than any Twins squad in recent memory (grr...Gomez at the plate, Casilla, Punto, Young everywhere, all the injuries, Luis Ayala before he was jettisoned, Bill Smith's refusal to upgrade the bullpen). What say you, readers? Do the Twins go for broke or sell anything that isn't locked down or has sideburns? This team needs a direction.