Suped Up Picks

The Common Man took a couple days off there, you know, to build up the tension and get you salivating for his return. So how did that go for you? The Common Man spent his time interviewing for a new job, running after The Boy, and guest blogging over at The Domestic and Laboratory Goddess about the necessity of open and honest communication between spouses, especially when it comes to figuring out how to raise the kids.

Tomorrow, of course, is the big day. The pinnacle of sport. The crown jewel of Americana. And while most of America is focused on the football and the commercials, The Common Man knows that the lot of you are wondering whether he will actually pick a winner. So far, The Common Man has picked every other game right, getting two games in the first week, two in the second round, and one of the championship games. So, unless the game ends in a tie, this entire project is either going to be an incredible success or a pitiful failure. And you can't wait to find out which. So, on to the pick:

Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Pittsburgh is favored by 7)

Everything in The Common Man's body and soul tells him that he should be picking the Steelers here. Their defense really is excellent, anchored by Troy Polamalu and Nick Harrison. Ben Roethlesberger is a solid quarterback. Their running game is back on track thanks to Fast Willie Parker's resurgence. Hines Ward is probable to play. They are well-coached. And the AFC has been a better conference than the NFC for several seasons running.


Meanwhile, Arizona won just 9 games during the regular season. Their mediocre-at-best running game is not going to be a factor against the Steelers. Their quarterback, Kurt Warner, is not mobile and figures to be blitzed often. Their defense is mediocre.

And yet, The Common Man feels drawn like a moth to the flame that is Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald figures to be the best player on the field, and The Common Man thinks the Cardinals will eschew the run, spreading the field with three and four receiver sets, forcing Polamalu to help out in coverage, and keeping him from being the ball-hawking freestyle playmaker he loves to be. At the very least, this game is going to be closer than the seven point spread.

Let's say,

Arizona 27, Pittsburgh 24

Pickin' the Champs

Another week, another middling 2-2 for The Common Man, making him 4-4 for the playoffs thusfar. Really, what are you still doing reading this? How can you even pretend The Common Man has insight? What? You just like to watch him flail? Well then, you're in luck. Here are The Common Man's sure to be half-right picks for the Conference Championships:

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals (Eagles favored by 4)

It's hard to imagine even the most hard-core gambler putting money down on either team still being alive. Arizona's pass-first offense should have been shut down before this, but Larry Fitzgerald has refused to allow it, proving to be the most impressive and dynamic receiver in the league. Philadelphia's moribund offense has provided just enough in two straight games to get past teams whose offenses proved to be even more inept.

The Common Man gives Phildelphia virtually zero credit for its wins, and thinks that Arizona has only won because they haven't had to face a great running game (they could stack the line against the Falcons, daring a rookie QB to beat them; and the Panthers never ran at them at all). Then again, running the ball isn't Philly's forte. So, in the end, The Common Man is unsure. He thinks it will be a close game, and would normally stay away from it at all costs.

But in the name of manly decision-making, he is going to go with the Cardinals to at least keep the game within 3 and still have a puncher's chance of winning, especially at home, and especially given how much the Eagles have struggled with the ball.

Final Score: Cardinals 24, Eagles 22

Baltimore Raves vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers favored by 6)
These teams are entirely familiar with one another, are huge division rivals, and don't like each other much. They played twice this year, and Pittsbugh won both times, but only by seven total points. As such, it's hard to figure out exactly why the line on the game is as big as it is. Indeed, given that this game should be very low scoring, The Common Man is tempted to take the points here. After all, of the four best players on the field, three of them will be Ravens (Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs vs. Troy Polamalu). The only thing giving The Common Man pause is rookie Joe Flacco at the helm for the Ravens. In a hostile environment, in just his third playoff game (though he performed efficiently last time out), the kid could get rattled and throw the game away. But The Common Man has a lot of faith in that Baltimore defense, and can't imagine Flacco causing enough trouble to push the score beyond the line.

Final Score: Baltimore 16, Pittsburgh 14

Pickin' It

The Common Man meant to post his picks last night, but a buzzsaw of work made that impossible. So you get the Campbell's condensed version today:

Picks: In retrospect
The Common Man went 2-2 last weekend, which is not very good, but is also somewhat respectable considering the Vikings pick was a total homer call. In retrospect, the Tarvaris Jackson era was fun for all of 3.5 games. Now please return Tarvaris to the Rodney Peete Memorial Pile of Back-up Quarterbacks, and find someone who can complete a past on 3rd and 5.

Picks: In future-spect (the short version)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans (Titans favored by 3)
Two similar teams here, with tough defenses, a strong run game and a mediocre air attack. The difference between the two would appear to be the quarterbacks, where Joe Flacco of the Ravens is a rookie and Kerry Collins of the Titans is a grizzled vet. Normally, The Common Man would be all over the Titans because of this, especially at home. Maybe it's the Titans' logo (a silly looking T), maybe it's that Flacco has already won one road playoff game (though he didn't look good doing it), or maybe its the Ravens' fabulous big-play defense led by Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, and Ray Lewis (actually, there's no maybe, it's the defense), but The Common Man thinks that Tennessee's going to run into a buzzsaw this week. The defense gets a couple of takeaways and the offense is efficient enough to hold on. Ravens 21, Titans 19.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers (Panthers favored by 10)
Look out Arizona, here comes an incredible rushing attack, driven by DeAngelo Williams (1500+ yards, 18 TDs) and Jonathan Stewart (800+ yards, 10 TDs). While Kurt Warner and Arizona will be able to move the ball against the Panthers through the air, the Panthers will grind against the Cardinals front seven, controlling the ball and the tempo of the game, and wearing down their opponents. Look for a lot of scoring in this one, a potential breakout by Steve Smith, and an efficient performance from Jake Delhomme. Panthers 31, Arizona 20.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants (Giants favored by 4)
This will be a really interesting game, as the teams split their regular season pair of games and each have one of the top rated offenses and defenses in the game. The Common Man is going to pick the Giants here, because he thinks they were actually much better than their numbers show, but were on coast for the last quarter of the season. Also, with two thousand-yard rushers and an extremely accurae and efficient QB (who was the MVP of the Super Bowl last year), it's hard to imagine the Giants letting this game slip away. At worst, they will keep the game close and pull it out when McNabb or Andy Reid make a mental mistake and cost the Eagles the game. More likely, they do exactly what the Panthers are going to do to the Cardinals, grind it out on the ground and wait for the Eagles defense to get tired. Then pull away in the second half. Giants 27, Eagles 19

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Diego Chargers (Pittsburgh favored by 6)
The Common Man knows that the Chargers played perfect football against the Colts last week, and have won five games in a row. And Philip Rivers and Damian Sproles have played inspired ball. But the Steelers are well coached and have had two weeks to get ready for this game. Ben Roethlisberger is a strong and reliable leader, and they have perhaps the single best defensive unit and player (Troy Polamalu). This should neutralize both Sproles/Tomlinson in the backfield and Gates in the passing game. However, Roethlisberger gets sacked a lot, and is recovering from a concussion in week 15. The Common Man sees the Steelers pulling this game out, unless Roethlisberger goes down again. At that point, it's anybody's game. Steelers 17, Chargers 9