Pickin' the Champs

Another week, another middling 2-2 for The Common Man, making him 4-4 for the playoffs thusfar. Really, what are you still doing reading this? How can you even pretend The Common Man has insight? What? You just like to watch him flail? Well then, you're in luck. Here are The Common Man's sure to be half-right picks for the Conference Championships:

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals (Eagles favored by 4)

It's hard to imagine even the most hard-core gambler putting money down on either team still being alive. Arizona's pass-first offense should have been shut down before this, but Larry Fitzgerald has refused to allow it, proving to be the most impressive and dynamic receiver in the league. Philadelphia's moribund offense has provided just enough in two straight games to get past teams whose offenses proved to be even more inept.

The Common Man gives Phildelphia virtually zero credit for its wins, and thinks that Arizona has only won because they haven't had to face a great running game (they could stack the line against the Falcons, daring a rookie QB to beat them; and the Panthers never ran at them at all). Then again, running the ball isn't Philly's forte. So, in the end, The Common Man is unsure. He thinks it will be a close game, and would normally stay away from it at all costs.

But in the name of manly decision-making, he is going to go with the Cardinals to at least keep the game within 3 and still have a puncher's chance of winning, especially at home, and especially given how much the Eagles have struggled with the ball.

Final Score: Cardinals 24, Eagles 22

Baltimore Raves vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Steelers favored by 6)
These teams are entirely familiar with one another, are huge division rivals, and don't like each other much. They played twice this year, and Pittsbugh won both times, but only by seven total points. As such, it's hard to figure out exactly why the line on the game is as big as it is. Indeed, given that this game should be very low scoring, The Common Man is tempted to take the points here. After all, of the four best players on the field, three of them will be Ravens (Ed Reed, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs vs. Troy Polamalu). The only thing giving The Common Man pause is rookie Joe Flacco at the helm for the Ravens. In a hostile environment, in just his third playoff game (though he performed efficiently last time out), the kid could get rattled and throw the game away. But The Common Man has a lot of faith in that Baltimore defense, and can't imagine Flacco causing enough trouble to push the score beyond the line.

Final Score: Baltimore 16, Pittsburgh 14

Pickin' It

The Common Man meant to post his picks last night, but a buzzsaw of work made that impossible. So you get the Campbell's condensed version today:

Picks: In retrospect
The Common Man went 2-2 last weekend, which is not very good, but is also somewhat respectable considering the Vikings pick was a total homer call. In retrospect, the Tarvaris Jackson era was fun for all of 3.5 games. Now please return Tarvaris to the Rodney Peete Memorial Pile of Back-up Quarterbacks, and find someone who can complete a past on 3rd and 5.

Picks: In future-spect (the short version)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans (Titans favored by 3)
Two similar teams here, with tough defenses, a strong run game and a mediocre air attack. The difference between the two would appear to be the quarterbacks, where Joe Flacco of the Ravens is a rookie and Kerry Collins of the Titans is a grizzled vet. Normally, The Common Man would be all over the Titans because of this, especially at home. Maybe it's the Titans' logo (a silly looking T), maybe it's that Flacco has already won one road playoff game (though he didn't look good doing it), or maybe its the Ravens' fabulous big-play defense led by Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, and Ray Lewis (actually, there's no maybe, it's the defense), but The Common Man thinks that Tennessee's going to run into a buzzsaw this week. The defense gets a couple of takeaways and the offense is efficient enough to hold on. Ravens 21, Titans 19.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers (Panthers favored by 10)
Look out Arizona, here comes an incredible rushing attack, driven by DeAngelo Williams (1500+ yards, 18 TDs) and Jonathan Stewart (800+ yards, 10 TDs). While Kurt Warner and Arizona will be able to move the ball against the Panthers through the air, the Panthers will grind against the Cardinals front seven, controlling the ball and the tempo of the game, and wearing down their opponents. Look for a lot of scoring in this one, a potential breakout by Steve Smith, and an efficient performance from Jake Delhomme. Panthers 31, Arizona 20.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants (Giants favored by 4)
This will be a really interesting game, as the teams split their regular season pair of games and each have one of the top rated offenses and defenses in the game. The Common Man is going to pick the Giants here, because he thinks they were actually much better than their numbers show, but were on coast for the last quarter of the season. Also, with two thousand-yard rushers and an extremely accurae and efficient QB (who was the MVP of the Super Bowl last year), it's hard to imagine the Giants letting this game slip away. At worst, they will keep the game close and pull it out when McNabb or Andy Reid make a mental mistake and cost the Eagles the game. More likely, they do exactly what the Panthers are going to do to the Cardinals, grind it out on the ground and wait for the Eagles defense to get tired. Then pull away in the second half. Giants 27, Eagles 19

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Diego Chargers (Pittsburgh favored by 6)
The Common Man knows that the Chargers played perfect football against the Colts last week, and have won five games in a row. And Philip Rivers and Damian Sproles have played inspired ball. But the Steelers are well coached and have had two weeks to get ready for this game. Ben Roethlisberger is a strong and reliable leader, and they have perhaps the single best defensive unit and player (Troy Polamalu). This should neutralize both Sproles/Tomlinson in the backfield and Gates in the passing game. However, Roethlisberger gets sacked a lot, and is recovering from a concussion in week 15. The Common Man sees the Steelers pulling this game out, unless Roethlisberger goes down again. At that point, it's anybody's game. Steelers 17, Chargers 9

In Retrospect and Pre-retrospect...

Everyone should learn from their mistakes, a tenet that applies to The Common Man just as much as it applies to you. And when The Common Man prepared his NFL preview, he made many, many mistakes.

Sure, he predicted the success of the Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots (though The Common Man is just as surprised as you they didn't make the playoffs and that they were this successful without Tom Brady behind center), and Indianapolis Colts. But he was blindsided by the success of the Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers, and Tennessee Titans. And he significantly overestimated the strength of the Chargers, Raiders, Jags, Browns, Bills, Packers, Seahawks, Saints and Cowboys. In fact, The Common Man only picked five of the twelve playoff teams to get to the tournament.

It was a poor performance. In retrospect, The Common Man relied too much on the previous success of teams, underestimated the ability of first-year quarterbacks to step into the NFL and succeed, and discounted the importance of competent leadership from coaches and front office types.

So, given The Common Man's poor performance during the regular season, why should you trust him in making his playoff picks? Really, the answer is that you shouldn't. Or rather, you should trust him to choose poorly. The smart money is on the opposite of what The Common Man says. Remember that going forward.

Atl at AZ (Atlanta is favored by 1.5)
The Common Man feels bad he didn't trust rookie QB Matt Ryan and free agent Michael Turner in their first season together. But really, who could blame The Common Man, since the last QB to do anything worthwhile in their rookie year was Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. And before that Peyton Manning in 1998. So The Common Man was supposed to know that both Ryan and Joe Flacco (Ravens) were going to be able to step in and contribute from day 1? Come on. We don't know much about how these rookies will perform in the playoffs, so The Common Man is listing both of them as question marks (especially since both are on the road).

This game offers a great contrast in styles, as the Cardinals air the ball out and the Falcons are great at grinding the ball out on the ground. However, while the Cardinals run defense is decidedly average, the Falcons defensive secondary ranks in the bottom third of the league (directly in front of the Cardinals, actually). The Common Man thinks that the Cardinals, aided by their home crowd, will stop the Falcons ground attack often enough that Ryan will have to throw it to keep drives alive. He isn't likely to do that with consistency, especially if he starts slowly. Meanwhile, Kurt Warner will pick the Falcons' DBs apart all day.

Final: Phoenix 24, Atlanta 16

Indianapolis vs. San Diego (Indy is favored by 1)
These teams meet every year, and Peyton Manning has struggled. However, the Chargers are overconfident following their victory over Denver this week, they are poorly coached, they have a banged up RB and TE. And their passing defense ranked 31st in the NFL last year. Against a healthy Colts team, headed by Tony Dungy, and a lean-pass offense run by the NFL's best player, the Colts are going to win this in a walk, even though they're playing in San Diego. It's going to be a long day on the SD sidelines.

Final: Indy 24, San Diego 17 (with SD scoring a TD in garbage time to make it look close)

Baltimore at Miami (Baltimore is favored by 3)
The Ravens have already beaten Miami in Miami this year, taking them down 27-13 in week 7. Little has changed since then. The Dolphins appear to be held together with baling wire and duct tape, succeeding despite a middling offense propped up by an efficient Chad Pennington and two good, but not spectacular backs. Their defense has been in the top third of the league, but bends to the air attack. Meanwhile, the Ravens have one of the league's top rushing attacks, don't turn the ball over much, and have a ball-hawking defense that led the league in turnovers (the team was +13) and still allowed the third fewest points in the league. The Ravens will grind it out against the Dolphins, trusting their defense to contain Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, and to get a pick or two off Pennington. Their offense will struggle to score, but will control the ball most of the game. If you don't like defensive battles, don't watch this game. As for betting on it, I wouldn't. The low score will make it too close to call, especially with the Ravens already laying 3.

Baltimore 13, Miami 9

Philadelphia vs. Minnesota (Eagles are favored by 3)
Quick, bet on the Vikings. Seriously. This isn't based on any particular analysis, but on the feeling that The Purple Jesus (Adrian Peterson) is going to use this game as his personal coming out party. Sure, everyone's heard of him. And most have seen him run. But this is his first playoff game. Expect him to run like he's possessed. And speaking of possession, his concentration-level should be high, and he won't suffer from the fumblitis that has plagued him over these past few weeks. Mark The Common Man's words, the Philadelphia Eagles do not comprehend what is about to happen to them (though to be fair, QB Donovan McNabb didn't comprehend that games could end in a tie, and Andy Reid still doesn't comprehend how to manage the clock, so it's not clear this team comprehends much).

Meanwhile, The Vikings defense will do well to stifle Brian Westbrook on the ground (especially since Pat Williams is back from a fractured shoulder), but will allow a lot of yards through the air. Peterson's big day (did The Common Man mention the pain that was coming?) should open up the playaction (which is something otherwise-shaky QB Tarvaris Jackson does exceedingly well), allowing Bernard Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe to exploit the sideline and the middle of the field respectively against a shaky Philly secondary.

Final: Minnesota 28, Philly 20 (Minnesota jumps out to a big lead, and Philly passes their way back in it only to squander a good chance to tie by mismanaging the clock and their timeouts, and getting flustered by a deafening Metrodome crowd.)