A Weekend of Learning

This weekend was basically cancelled by extreme raininess, so The Common Man stayed inside, watched Twins games, caught random innings of other contests, thoroughly enjoyed watching Wall-E (perhaps the single sweetest movie of all time) with The Uncommon Wife and The Boy. Even stuck inside, The Common Man learned a lot:

- Whoever writes headlines for ESPN.com is either an idiot or has a hell of a sense of humor. The Common Man was mortified to read, on the MLB front page, that "Joe Mauer goes to rehab," until he clicked through to be reminded that Man Muscles had started his rehab assignment in Fort Myers.

- Speaking of ESPN, The Common Man didn't know whether to laugh or cry when the Vikings selected Florida wide receiver Percy Harvin (who failed a drug test at the NFL Combine) in the first round, and one commentator broke down the selection saying, "On the field...Harvin will have one-on-one opportunities. The off the field becomes, can the lockerroom handle that. Is there enough leadership there to say, 'a) don't ever fail a drug test that you know is coming...'" Just so we're clear...it's still ok to fail the drug tests you don't know are coming, right?

- Last week, the Twins got swept in a doubleheader in Boston, getting drubbed in both games. It should come as no surprise that the Twins play fewer doubleheaders than most teams in the league; after all, they spend half their time in the Dome. But despite their indoor digs, the Twins have played a surprising number of twinbills at home since the stadium opened in 1982. In total, 9 double headers have been played at the dome, and the Twins have gone 10-8 overall.

The first doubledip was on August 1, 1983, in which the Twins earned a split against the then-California Angels. Mike Witt gave up 6 runs but still got a complete game in the opener, easily beating Brad Havens, who went 2 innings and gave up five runs in his final game of the season (in which he'd gone 5-8 with an 8.18 ERA). In the nightcap, Rick Lysander threw a shutout for the Twins, who touched up Angels rookie Steve Brown for 5 runs in 4+ innings.

After a three year absence, the Twins played three such doubleheaders in 20 days, on August 12, 14, and 31. Both the 12th and the 14th were part of a strange five-game series with the Oakland A's, which lasted just three days. On the 12th, the Twins swept the A's behind Bert Blyleven's complete game and Mark Salas's two-run homer in the first contest, and Tom Brunansky's 8th inning game-winning solo homer in the second. On the 14th, the Twins dropped both games, first to a combined Don Sutton and Steve Ontiveros shutout, and then in Mark Portugal's major league debut. On the 31st, the Twins swept the Red Sox, again behind Blyleven's complete game (and a 9th inning comeback capped by Ron Washington's game-winning single). In the second game, Portugal pitched his second game of the year, going 5.1 innings before giving way to Pete Filson and Ron Davis (who, as always, made life interesting by giving up a two-run homer in the 9th to cut the lead to one).

The reasons for all these doubleheaders are unclear. Perhaps it's weather-related (seriously, a violent storm could prevent a visitor from flying in to the cities or a tornado warning (a majority of these series seem to take place in late-summer) could have forced the cancellation of a contest. Or perhaps there was some malfunction with the Dome itself, like a loss of internal air pressure (the Dome is held up by an artificially high pressure that pops your ears when you enter the stadium and that can literally blow you out if the doors are opened). Whatever the reason, the Oakland A's seem to have something to do with it. Of the nine doubleheaders, the Twins played the Athletics in five of them, twice in '85, once each in 1990, and 1996, and 2001. In these contests, the Twins and A's have split, each going 5-5.

In the most recent contest, the Twins and Royals split the twinbill. The Royals touched Matt Garza for 8 runs in 5 innings in the opener, but Scott Baker dominated in the nightcap, throwing 8 perfect innings before walking John Buck to lead off the 9th. Two batters later, pinch hitter (and Twin-killer) Mike Sweeney singled and Baker finished with a one-hit shutout, having faced just 29 hitters, and striking out 9.


So, The Common Man doesn't know what to make of all this. It's just a weird anomoly that seems to come up every few years in the Metrodome (though that will change next year, when the Twins will undoubtedly have to play two a lot more often). I mean, did the Astrodome have this problem???

- Fantasy owners who have started Joaquim Soria for the past week-and-a-half probably have cause for legal action against Trey Hillman. Seriously Trey, throw the nerds a bone here.

- Jacoby Ellsbury is awesome!

In Retrospect and Pre-retrospect...

Everyone should learn from their mistakes, a tenet that applies to The Common Man just as much as it applies to you. And when The Common Man prepared his NFL preview, he made many, many mistakes.

Sure, he predicted the success of the Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots (though The Common Man is just as surprised as you they didn't make the playoffs and that they were this successful without Tom Brady behind center), and Indianapolis Colts. But he was blindsided by the success of the Atlanta Falcons, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers, and Tennessee Titans. And he significantly overestimated the strength of the Chargers, Raiders, Jags, Browns, Bills, Packers, Seahawks, Saints and Cowboys. In fact, The Common Man only picked five of the twelve playoff teams to get to the tournament.

It was a poor performance. In retrospect, The Common Man relied too much on the previous success of teams, underestimated the ability of first-year quarterbacks to step into the NFL and succeed, and discounted the importance of competent leadership from coaches and front office types.

So, given The Common Man's poor performance during the regular season, why should you trust him in making his playoff picks? Really, the answer is that you shouldn't. Or rather, you should trust him to choose poorly. The smart money is on the opposite of what The Common Man says. Remember that going forward.

Atl at AZ (Atlanta is favored by 1.5)
The Common Man feels bad he didn't trust rookie QB Matt Ryan and free agent Michael Turner in their first season together. But really, who could blame The Common Man, since the last QB to do anything worthwhile in their rookie year was Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. And before that Peyton Manning in 1998. So The Common Man was supposed to know that both Ryan and Joe Flacco (Ravens) were going to be able to step in and contribute from day 1? Come on. We don't know much about how these rookies will perform in the playoffs, so The Common Man is listing both of them as question marks (especially since both are on the road).

This game offers a great contrast in styles, as the Cardinals air the ball out and the Falcons are great at grinding the ball out on the ground. However, while the Cardinals run defense is decidedly average, the Falcons defensive secondary ranks in the bottom third of the league (directly in front of the Cardinals, actually). The Common Man thinks that the Cardinals, aided by their home crowd, will stop the Falcons ground attack often enough that Ryan will have to throw it to keep drives alive. He isn't likely to do that with consistency, especially if he starts slowly. Meanwhile, Kurt Warner will pick the Falcons' DBs apart all day.

Final: Phoenix 24, Atlanta 16

Indianapolis vs. San Diego (Indy is favored by 1)
These teams meet every year, and Peyton Manning has struggled. However, the Chargers are overconfident following their victory over Denver this week, they are poorly coached, they have a banged up RB and TE. And their passing defense ranked 31st in the NFL last year. Against a healthy Colts team, headed by Tony Dungy, and a lean-pass offense run by the NFL's best player, the Colts are going to win this in a walk, even though they're playing in San Diego. It's going to be a long day on the SD sidelines.

Final: Indy 24, San Diego 17 (with SD scoring a TD in garbage time to make it look close)

Baltimore at Miami (Baltimore is favored by 3)
The Ravens have already beaten Miami in Miami this year, taking them down 27-13 in week 7. Little has changed since then. The Dolphins appear to be held together with baling wire and duct tape, succeeding despite a middling offense propped up by an efficient Chad Pennington and two good, but not spectacular backs. Their defense has been in the top third of the league, but bends to the air attack. Meanwhile, the Ravens have one of the league's top rushing attacks, don't turn the ball over much, and have a ball-hawking defense that led the league in turnovers (the team was +13) and still allowed the third fewest points in the league. The Ravens will grind it out against the Dolphins, trusting their defense to contain Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, and to get a pick or two off Pennington. Their offense will struggle to score, but will control the ball most of the game. If you don't like defensive battles, don't watch this game. As for betting on it, I wouldn't. The low score will make it too close to call, especially with the Ravens already laying 3.

Baltimore 13, Miami 9

Philadelphia vs. Minnesota (Eagles are favored by 3)
Quick, bet on the Vikings. Seriously. This isn't based on any particular analysis, but on the feeling that The Purple Jesus (Adrian Peterson) is going to use this game as his personal coming out party. Sure, everyone's heard of him. And most have seen him run. But this is his first playoff game. Expect him to run like he's possessed. And speaking of possession, his concentration-level should be high, and he won't suffer from the fumblitis that has plagued him over these past few weeks. Mark The Common Man's words, the Philadelphia Eagles do not comprehend what is about to happen to them (though to be fair, QB Donovan McNabb didn't comprehend that games could end in a tie, and Andy Reid still doesn't comprehend how to manage the clock, so it's not clear this team comprehends much).

Meanwhile, The Vikings defense will do well to stifle Brian Westbrook on the ground (especially since Pat Williams is back from a fractured shoulder), but will allow a lot of yards through the air. Peterson's big day (did The Common Man mention the pain that was coming?) should open up the playaction (which is something otherwise-shaky QB Tarvaris Jackson does exceedingly well), allowing Bernard Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe to exploit the sideline and the middle of the field respectively against a shaky Philly secondary.

Final: Minnesota 28, Philly 20 (Minnesota jumps out to a big lead, and Philly passes their way back in it only to squander a good chance to tie by mismanaging the clock and their timeouts, and getting flustered by a deafening Metrodome crowd.)

Common (Sports)man: The Essence of Vikings Fandom

Watching the Vikings game, The Common Man can't shake the feeling that the Vikings will find a way to squander their 10 point lead. And as Gus Frerotte throws way behind Chester Taylor and Bernard Berrian forgets that he has to make an effort to catch a pass, even if it's underthrown.

For those of you who are not Vikings fans, The Common Man feels like he needs to lay it out.

The Vikings were an NFL expansion franchise in 1961, born at the same time that the Washington Senators moved in and became the Minnesota Twins. Indeed, the arrival of two major sports franchises announced to the rest of the country that the Twin Cities were no longer the hinterlands of the midwest, ten steps south of Canada. Minneapolis and St. Paul were big league, and the Metro Area's identity became indelibly glued to their teams, as fans have glommed onto the success of their teams, particularly in the dead of winter.

After the initial growing pains that a expansion team experiences, the Vikings blossomed under new coach Bud Grant in 1968, beginning an 11 year run in which they never finished lower than .500 (they also were at .500 or better in 12 of 13 and 14 of 16). During that run, the Vikings made four Super Bowls, losing them all, simply choking away every opportunity to bring a championship to Minnesota.

After rebuilding under Jerry Burns and Denny Green, the Vikes had another 16 year stretch where they were at or above .500 14 times, a run that peaked with the team's 15-1 finish in 1998. But again, the team couldn't get over the hump, suffering heartbreaking losses in big playoff games (famously on Nick Anderson's first missed field goal of the season in the '98 NFC Championship Game), and underachieving in spite of their impressive talent.

Being a Vikings fan has always been about dealing with disappointment, dashed dreams, and squandered potential. It's like being a Cubs fan without the quirky and annoying mystical element. It's not that the Vikings have had bad luck, it's just that they've failed. Again and again and again. And they have taught their fans to both deal with and expect that failure. Vikings fans simply wait to see how their team will squander their latest opportunity.

And while The Common Man watches Reggie Bush return his second punt for a touchdown (why are you kicking to him a third time Brad Childress), he gets ready to endure yet another disappointment. He supposes that dealing with disappointment constructively is a valuable skill for a man to learn, but The Common Man just wants to throw his remote through the drywall of the mancave.



Addendum: Well, now that the game's over and Ryan Longwell's 30 yard field goal won it for the Vikes, dare The Common Man to dream? Or is he inviting further sadness/anger?