Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Tuesday Trade Tree: Rime of the Ancient Mariner
Once upon a time, there was a man named Bill Stein who was drafted in the 4th round of the amateur draft out of Southern Illinois University-Carbondale by his hometown Cardinals back in 1969. Stein never did much in Cardinal red so after a couple partial seasons, the Cardinals dealt him to the White Sox for Jeff DaVanon's dad. The White Sox of the mid-1970s were a mess, so they had room to give a light-hitting infielder 400 plate appearances in 1976 at second and third base. Stein hit .268/.310/.347 (which was actually good for a 92 OPS+) and was worth 0.1 win above replacement. He was not viewed as a significant part of the Sox franchise.
But that’s not what the newborn Seattle Mariners saw. They saw the cornerstone upon which their franchise would be built. Bill Stein may have been a mediocre (at best) utility infielder who couldn’t handle shortstop, but when the Mariners took him in the 5th round of the 1977 expansion draft, they knew that Bill Stein would be the key to their franchise’s future. That he would be responsible, in part, for 16% of the Mariners’ 2012 Major League roster. Observe:
What Do Minor League Walk and Strikeout Rates Tell Us About Prospects? Recap
Introduction
A few months ago, I created a database that includes all of the prospect rankings from Baseball America, Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein. I didn't have a direct purpose for it, I'm just the type of person who likes to accumulate as much data as possible. So it sat around on my computer until I found a good use for it. Well, thanks to fantasy baseball and Starling Marte's horrible 3.8% walk rate in AA last season, I have. Marte is a possible target in my dynasty minor league draft and I wanted to see what other prospects had poor walk rates and how successful they were in their careers.
Method
In interest of saving digital space (and your scrolling finger), I will only post the full method on the Rookie and Low-A edition of this series.
History
Rookie and Low-A
Single-A
Advanced-A
Double-A
Triple-A
Bust Percentage
I calculated a percentage of players who were busts at each level for high and low walk rates and strikeout rates. Remember, the Rookie and Low-A levels had very small sample sizes, so their numbers don't always follow the pattern. Looking at the data this way shows us where prospects have the most likely chance of failure.
I combined the Very Low/Low and Very High/High categories into one for simplicity's sake.
Monday, March 12, 2012
What Do Minor League Walk and Strikeout Rates Tell Us About Prospects? Triple-A Edition
Introduction
A few months ago, I created a database that includes all of the prospect rankings from Baseball America, Keith Law and Kevin Goldstein. I didn't have a direct purpose for it, I'm just the type of person who likes to accumulate as much data as possible. So it sat around on my computer until I found a good use for it. Well, thanks to fantasy baseball and Starling Marte's horrible 3.8% walk rate in AA last season, I have. Marte is a possible target in my dynasty minor league draft and I wanted to see what other prospects had poor walk rates and how successful they were in their careers.
Method
In interest of saving digital space (and your scrolling finger), I will only post the full method on the Rookie and Low-A edition of this series.
History
Rookie and Low-A
Single-A
Advanced-A
Double-A
Triple-A
389 of the 480 prospects in this dataset accumulated at least 150 plate appearances in Triple-A. 19% were successful, 20% were average and 61% were busts. This is close to the overall 21/21/58 trend for all prospects.
Walks
The Hall of Very Good
You're here because you like baseball. You're also here because you have some advanced mastery of the Internet as well, which means you probably have all sorts of fancy technology that you can use to read ebooks. And you're here at The Platoon Advantage either by complete accident or because you actually like the things that we write here. Normandin and Kalkman launched the Kickstarter and within four days they nearly doubled their goal and have since surpassed their goal of $3,000 to start the project by 244%. So, this project is definitely happening and the Kickstarter remains open for 11 more days and there are different levels of funding that get you the opportunity for many exciting things--including an advanced copy of the ebook or your name on the dedication page.The Hall of Very Good is an ebook meant to celebrate the careers of those who are not celebrated. It's not a book meant to reopen arguments about who does and does not deserve Hall of Fame enshrinement; rather, it's meant to remember those who, failing entrance into Cooperstown, will unfairly be lost to history. It's for the players we grew up rooting for, the ones whose best years led to flags and memories that will fly together forever. Players like Bret Saberhagen, Will Clark, Dwight Evans, Tim Salmon, Wilbur Wood, Orel Hershiser, and literally hundreds of others.This is not a numbers-driven project (although our contributors lean analytical in their views). Our plan isn't to be overbearing with numbers and spreadsheets to convince you that these players are worth remembering. What we want to do, instead, is accomplish that same task through stories. Think of your favorite players growing up: they have their moments, games, seasons, quirks, personalities, and legends worth remembering and sharing. Now, combine the best of everyone's forgotten favorites, and you've got a Hall of Very Good. Ask the people who have those memories and love for these players to write essays about them, and you have a book on the same topic.
Not only does the project promise essays on some of the most under celebrated players in history, Normandin and Kalkman have assembled an All-Star cast of writers from places like Baseball Prospectus, Sports Illustrated, New York Magazine, ESPN, NBCSports, Yahoo!, The Classical, Fangraphs, and SBNation....and the Platoon Advantage?
That's right-- The Common Man, Bill Parker, Jason Wojciechowski, and Cee Angi will all have essays in the Hall of Very Good, which is just another reason to check out this project (or because you like reading things by those more professional than us like Joe Posnanski). Whatever your reason, you will want to have this collection of essays (available in PDF and EPUB formats). Period.
If you buy a copy of the Hall of Very Good, you'll get to read essays from the following celebrated writers:
- R.J. Anderson
- Cee Angi
- Tommy Bennett
- Ted Berg
- Jon Bernhardt
- Jon Bois
- Grant Brisbee
- Dave Brown
- Craig Calcaterra
- Carson Cistulli
- Cliff Corcoran
- Chad Finn
- Steven Goldman
- Owen Good
- Jay Jaffe
- Christina Kahrl
- King Kaufman
- Matthew Kory
- Will Leitch
- Ben Lindbergh
- Sam Miller
- Rob Neyer
- Eric Nusbaum
- Bill Parker
- Jason Parks
- Jeff Passan
- Joe Posnanski
- Old Hoss Radbourn
- David Raposa
The list of contributors continues to grow as the Kickstarter funding increases, so the more of you that support the project, the more essays about under celebrated players there will be-- but you only have 11 more days before the Kickstarter expires. So, go check out the project (there's a video!), give them your money, and wait for the magic to happen.
- David Roth
- Jon Sciambi
- Emma Span
- Cecilia Tan
- The Common Man
- Wendy Thurm
- Jon Weisman
- Josh Wilker
- Jason Wojciechowski
Friday, March 9, 2012
The Path to Respectability: Kansas City Royals
by Jason Wojciechowski
| Remind me to tell you the story Photo by Jimmy Emerson |
Yesterday, I looked at how we could get the Orioles to 88 wins in 2012. It wasn't easy, but with a little optimism here and there, we got there. Today, it's Kansas City's turn.
The thing about the Royals, who Baseball Prospectus projects to 71 wins, one fewer than the Orioles, is that their division doesn't have the behemoths that the East does. Detroit looks formidable, certainly, with boppers in the lineup and Justin Verlander on the mound, but they're not the Yankees, and behind Detroit, the Central isn't so pretty. Cleveland or Chicago is probably the second-best team in the stack, and nobody thinks that either squad will be fighting for a Wild Card come September, even with Bud Selig's Great Expanded Playoff Adventure coming to pass. Eighty-eight wins might, as we'll see, look unreasonable for the Royals, but it could, if things fall right, actually get the team into the playoffs. (BP has the Tigers projected to 86 wins, a number that might look low to you until you consider the team's outfield, a crew that makes up a full 1/3 of the batting lineup in any game.)
Like yesterday, I'm starting off cheap: the Royals get five wins on run-distribution luck, jumping them all the way to 76. Unlike with the Orioles, I don't see an obvious trade for the Royals to make to shore up a particular position. Any team could trade for a starting pitcher at any time, of course, but figuring that a team will make that kind of move is boring for the purposes of this exercise. So let's try to find twelve wins on the roster as it stands.
Thursday, March 8, 2012
The Show Goes On
The Common Man did not plan to buy MLB12: The Show this year. He bought and enjoyed last year’s version (when the Twins were much, much better), and didn’t see the need to shell out $60 to stop living with the lie that Vernon Wells is a good player and that Justin Morneau’s career wasn’t in jeopardy. Plus, there were some truly annoying features of the game that TCM had trouble ignoring. Namely, the baserunning in Road to the Show is incredibly boring, the Franchise mode is bogged down by tedious and mundane details, and the minor league system of having to continually re-sign players makes very little sense.
Then he started hearing good things. Namely, that Steve Berthiaume loved it. Bert is a good dude who, despite his well-documented weakness in picking NL Central champions, plays video games openly and unrepentantly. That endears him to me. He’s been addicted to The Show for years, and so was sent an early copy. He was ecstatic that,
“The game's programmers have completely replaced last year's code and thus changed the way the baseball behaves with what they call True Ball Physics, which uses actual math for a spinning baseball that ricochets off bases, the pitching rubber and other field surfaces. The spin of the baseball off the bat is now accurate with realistic RPMs and the ball gains or loses energy like a real baseball, resulting in more hit type varieties. Line drives rise or sink and infield chops quickly become difficult to handle.”That sounded very promising. So, on Tuesday night, TCM stopped at Target on the way home and bought it, and over the last two nights, after washing the dishes and putting the kids to bed, TCM has played around with it in both Road to the Show and Franchise modes as an “experienced” player and using a standard controller (you can also use PS3 Move, if you have it). Here are the game’s features, and TCM’s reaction to them:
The Path to Respectability: Baltimore Orioles
by Jason Wojciechowski
| om nom nom nom nom Photo by Paula McVann |
I know I'm Dr. Negativo most of the time (I was born this way), but Bill's piece at Baseball Prospectus yesterday illustrating things that could go right for the Twins has inspired me. Over the next N days for some yet-to-be-determined N, I'm going to look at the worst team in each division and try to figure out how they might get to 88 wins. It's a modest goal for a good team, but these aren't good teams. It probably wouldn't even get AL East or AL West team into the playoffs, given the potential 95-100-win powerhouses at the tops of those divisions, but it would at least put the erstwhile bottom-feeder into the competition.
Where there is a clear worst team (like the Orioles in the AL East), I'll just go with them. Where there are multiple good choices, I won't choose: I'll do a post for each team. I will omit the Twins, though, because it's not like I have anything to say that Bill didn't already, and his piece is not behind the Prospectus pay-wall, so you can all read it even if you don't subscribe. (You should subscribe.)
