Overpaying Papelbon

By The Common Man

News broke this afternoon (via Jim Salisbury) that the Phillies signed free agent closer Jonathan Papelbon to a mammoth $50 million deal over four years (with a potential vesting option that could push it to $60 million), immediately forgetting the lesson they learned with Ryan Madson: Closer are made, not born. Sure, you might expect a team to overpay for an absolutely elite reliever (like Craig Kimbrel or Mariano Rivera) who just happened to pitch in the 9th inning, but nothing to this degree. Nothing like $12.5 million per season over four years.


Relievers are incredibly volatile, and Papelbon himself is a great example of this. In the last four years, his xFIP has been 2.34, 3.91, 3.56, and 2.16, and he’s been worth anywhere between 1.2 and 3.0 wins above replacement per season according to FanGraphs. He’s also going to be 31, has never pitched more than 70 innings in any regular season, and has severely struggled with his control in two of the past three seasons.

Is Ryan Madson a Bad Closer?

By Bill

Yesterday, it was made official that Brad Lidge had a rotator cuff injury that would keep him out for some time -- maybe a few weeks, maybe half the season, maybe more -- thus saving the Phillies from having to appoint one of the worst pitchers on the team to (arguably) the most important spot in the bullpen. Instead, veteran Jose Contreras, age 39 going on 60, takes over in the closer spot, with arguably the best reliever in the National League, Ryan Madson, remaining in his customary 8th-inning role.

The truth is, the decision is unlikely to make a difference. Contreras established himself as a fine reliever last season, and even if that was a fluke or he suddenly starts acting his age, the Phillies figure to have a quick trigger and swap Madson in at the first sign of a real struggle. Even more to the point, though, it doesn't really matter who's pitching the eighth and who's pitching the ninth; they're of pretty similar importance, and really, since the silly made-up "rules" applied to closers don't apply to set-up guys, you might argue this is better for the Phillies just because Madson's not being the closer will get him into the game more often and for more total innings.

But that doesn't mean that the decisionmaking makes any sense. The prevailing opinion among fans and the media -- and as far as I can tell, the Phillies' manager, pitching coach and front office have bought into it, too -- is that Madson, while he's great in the 8th inning, really struggles when you get into the 9th and into save situations, that he doesn't have the mental make-up to be a closer. And this doesn't come from anything Madson has said -- he's stated that he wants an opportunity to close -- just, apparently, from perceptions of his performance. He "has pressed when he has closed." But is there anything to that, really?

3 Questions: Philadelphia Phillies

By The Common Man

This is the third in The Three Offseason Questions series that’s going on here at The Platoon Advantage. Last week’s look at the Giants is up here and Bill's look at the Rangers from earlier today is here. But today, the Phillies have some serious issues to address if they’re going to bounce back from their disappointing NLCS loss.

Question 1: Who will be a Phillie in 2011, Jayson Werth or Raul Ibanez?

The free agent deal that Raul Ibanez signed with Ruben Amaro seems to be a huge obstacle to resigning Jayson Werth. Ibanez is scheduled to make $11.5 million in the final year of his deal in 2011, but at age 39 his bat has slowed and his defense has too. Despite getting almost 70 more plate appearances in 2010, Raul’s homer total dropped from 34 to 16. His OPS dropped by more than 100 points. And he contributed just a single run over replacement to the Phils last year. And, of course, he contributes mightily to Philadelphia’s troubles hitting lefty pitchers.

Werth, on the other hand, is going to be 32, is coming off a remarkable season (one in which he probably overachieved slightly) in which he had a 921 OPS, and is a perfectly capable defender in the outfield corners. He’s also a righty, and can help balance out some of the platoon weaknesses the Phils have. He’s also the second most sought after outfielder on the market.

The Phillies probably don’t have the money to keep both players, and youngster Dominic Brown is basically ready to take over whichever corner spot is available next year. The key question is whether they deal Ibanez to an AL club for pennies on the dollar and use the savings to get Werth (if that’s possible at this point) or they let Werth walk and have a weaker team in 2011. A Phillies phan should hope for the former scenario, but the realist in The Common Man, and Amaro’s statements so far, suggest that the Phillies will go in the other direction. Philadelphians should be afraid.

Question 2: What happens to the back end of the rotation?

There is no question that the Phillies have one of the two most intimidating Top 3s in baseball, with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels locked in to the rotation through the end of 2011. With the presumed departure of Jayson Werth, however, the Phillies will have fewer opportunities to slug their ways out of the holes dug by the back end of the rotation. Joe Blanton contributed a 4.82 ERA last year and Kyle Kendrick sported a 4.73 and should be in line for the #4 and #5 slots. Blanton may have underperformed based on his rate stats (his xFIP was a respectable 4.06), but his K/9 fell off and he suffered through injury problems. Kendrick is what he is, a strike-throwing innings eater who is ill-made to pitch half his games at Citizens Bank Park. For the Phillies to phend off the presumed advances of the Braves, they could use some additional support. That said, they likely will hold serve yet again due to payroll restrictions. Blanton’s $10.5 million salary isn’t going anywhere, and Kendrick is still cheap.

Question 3: When does this team finally need to start rebuilding?

Look, the Phillies are terrific. They have tremendous players in Chase Utley, Halladay, and Oswalt. The much maligned Ryan Howard is still a good player, and Jimmy Rollins figures to bounce back over an injury plagued and ineffective 2010. But there’s no way to avoid the reality that the core of the Phillies is aging, and will eventually need to turn over if the team is going to remain competitive in the long term.

In next year’s starting lineup, only Dominic Brown will be younger than 30. Ibanez will be 39 and is in decline. Placido Polanco, who already suffered from nagging injuries in 2010, will be 35. Chase Utley will only be 32, but that comes with the knowledge that he has had injury problems recently and second basemen tend not to age well. Howard suffered through perhaps the worst offensive season of his career. And Jimmy Rollins has seen his batting average (which is his major offensive contribution) fall every year since he won the MVP in 2007. Meanwhile, Halladay’s 34. Oswalt is 33. Both of them have a lot of mileage on their arms.

The reality is that the Phillies are starting to both look and play like an old team. What’s more, it’s not clear they have much coming up through the minors to be able to help soon. There will come a day, and that day will be soon, when the Phillies will have to look in the mirror and recognize they have work to do to stay competitive in the long run. And given their top-heavy commitment to winning in the near term, it’s going to have to be a complete tear-down.