Great closers, overpaying for them, and saberbickering

By Bill


I started a bit of a fracas on Twitter a couple weeks ago, primarily with a couple guys I really like and think are brilliant guys and good analysts, Patrick Sullivan and Moshe Mandel. I won't link to the discussion or anything, because Twitter fights are always confusing and really, really dull, but here's the gist:

1) As you probably know, most sabermetric types have a generally low opinion of relief pitchers and, more than that, of the large, multi-year contracts free agent ones are given.

2) A few, like Patrick and Moshe, have a problem with the sometimes rote and knee-jerk way point no. 1 is applied. There are quite a few points and I won't do justice to them, but some of the keys are: (a) GMs are generally smart people, and it's arrogant to assume you know a bunch of things they don't; (b) saying things like "relievers are fungible," at least with regard to the really, consistently good ones, is stupid and reductive; and (c) we're not really sure how to properly measure relievers yet, so we should stop acting like we are. A common tack is to mock the idea that the Rays' tactic of building a bullpen on the cheap is "smart," pointing out that by xFIP, the Rays had the second-worst 'pen in baseball in 2011.

3) I eventually tired of the way this extremely vocal minority presented their otherwise perfectly valid and worthwhile opinion: mostly in really sarcastic preemptive-strike subtweets which I thought unfairly belittled the (sabermetric) majority position and put words in people's mouths that seriously oversimplified what was actually being said. You'd think, from reading these comments, that the average sabermetrically-minded person didn't think relievers had any value, that they were literally all exactly alike, and that a signing like Papelbon didn't actually make the Phillies any better. So I spoke up, and it became this big thing.

Twitter is wonderful, but Twitter fights, as I've said, are awful (especially among intelligent people who can't be dismantled and dismissed in 140 characters the way, say, a Jon Heyman can). So I thought I'd try to lay out my thoughts in a more coherent form here. Moshe has some thoughts on it in an excellent post here, which will be the focus of a lot of this, and for some additional perspective on "the other side," Moshe approvingly cites this from the same blog a few weeks earlier.

So here are a few thoughts on this, at more than 140 characters a pop:

Quick Hits and Links

By The Common Man

Because of the West Coast road trip the Twins are on and his recent forrays into single parenting while The Uncommon Wife has been away, The Common Man admits that he fell asleep several times during last night’s Twins game. And it wasn’t just nodding off. TCM consciously chose to lay down on the couch during the game, knowing what would probably happen. And he dropped off for a half-hour at one point (waking up for the top of the 9th) and then falling asleep again after Plouffe’s sac fly in the 10th and staying that way until 2:00. As such, TCM is tired and in no mood to write a long column today. Instead, you get this:

Is Ryan Madson a Bad Closer?

By Bill

Yesterday, it was made official that Brad Lidge had a rotator cuff injury that would keep him out for some time -- maybe a few weeks, maybe half the season, maybe more -- thus saving the Phillies from having to appoint one of the worst pitchers on the team to (arguably) the most important spot in the bullpen. Instead, veteran Jose Contreras, age 39 going on 60, takes over in the closer spot, with arguably the best reliever in the National League, Ryan Madson, remaining in his customary 8th-inning role.

The truth is, the decision is unlikely to make a difference. Contreras established himself as a fine reliever last season, and even if that was a fluke or he suddenly starts acting his age, the Phillies figure to have a quick trigger and swap Madson in at the first sign of a real struggle. Even more to the point, though, it doesn't really matter who's pitching the eighth and who's pitching the ninth; they're of pretty similar importance, and really, since the silly made-up "rules" applied to closers don't apply to set-up guys, you might argue this is better for the Phillies just because Madson's not being the closer will get him into the game more often and for more total innings.

But that doesn't mean that the decisionmaking makes any sense. The prevailing opinion among fans and the media -- and as far as I can tell, the Phillies' manager, pitching coach and front office have bought into it, too -- is that Madson, while he's great in the 8th inning, really struggles when you get into the 9th and into save situations, that he doesn't have the mental make-up to be a closer. And this doesn't come from anything Madson has said -- he's stated that he wants an opportunity to close -- just, apparently, from perceptions of his performance. He "has pressed when he has closed." But is there anything to that, really?

The Committee Votes "Aye"

Joe Nathan’s injury created significant questions for the Twins as they sorted out their bullpen options for 2010. Thankfully, when faced with a choice, the team did not panic, and indeed did something sensible. Gardenhire told reporters on Sunday, "we're going to start out and we're going to look at a lot of different people and we'll see what happens. We've got about three or four different guys we can go to."

So, the Twins announced plans to go with what’s being called a “closer by committee” approach at the end of games, but which really amounts to riding the hot hand in the short term and letting the competition play itself out organically. The Common Man is fairly pleased by this. After all, as he pointed out earlier this month, there is really no perfect internal solution for the loss of an elite reliever like Joe Nathan. Rather, the Twins are faced with a number of inexperienced choices who don’t necessarily profile well as shut-down closers in the new sense we’re talking about here. Yet, all of the relievers in question are quality pitchers, and are likely to be average to above-average at the end of the game. There’s no need to give up some of the team’s elite young talent for another largely fungible reliever.

Instead, the team has made value moves. The signing of Ron Mahay indicated, at first, that the Twins were interested in moving Jose Mijares into the role. However, Mahay’s minor league contract could also be taken as a sign that Francisco Liriano has won the 5th starter spot and that Brian Duensing would spend at least part of this season in Rochester, where he’ll be a starter. Either way, if he makes the team Mahay figures to allow Mijares the freedom to enter games in higher leverage situations in the 8th or 9th inning, rather than serving as the team’s de facto LOOGY. Indeed, what the Twins are doing will allow them to pick the matchups that are, in theory, the most effective, bringing in Mijares against Sizemore and Hafner, while using Rauch or Guerrier against Magglio and Cabrera.

As Rob Neyer tweeted tonight, Gardy’s exclusion of Pat Neshek from his list of end of game options is somewhat disappointing. Neshek is incredibly popular with the fans and is generally an excellent relief option against both righties and lefties. His demeanor suggests an ability to work past difficult outings, and his stuff, if he’s healthy, is absolutely filthy. Alas, the Twins seem to have decided to baby Neshek a little bit at the start of the year, easing him back into an expanded role with the club. And The Common Man can respect that, even if he’s eager to see his favorite side-armer get some saves. In fact, one added benefit for the Twins (but not for Neshek) is that a lower save total will result in a lower salary once Pat becomes eligible for arbitration next season.

Again, The Common Man continues to expect Jon Rauch to get the majority of the opportunities at the end of the game. Despite their reasoned approach here, the Twins have always been a relatively conventional team, and Rauch has the look and at least a little bit of experience with the role. Rauch will not be as effective as Joe Nathan, and it will be interesting to see just how the Twins react to this. Indeed, if the team senses weakness, there’s an excellent chance they could pull the trigger on an even more panicky deal than the ones they’ve rejected thusfar. But if they can stay patient and flexible, allowing the most effective relievers to rise to the top of the bullpen ladder, the team is likely to find itself in relatively good shape this year.

This experience can also serve as a strong lesson on building a bullpen going forward, reminding Bill Smith that closers are mostly made, not born, and not to overextend the club for replaceable talent.

Note: The Common Man is sorry for a awfully short post today (by TCM's standards). He's got a lot coming up this week, including a new Beer Leaguers tomorrow, his first post as a part of the Its About the Money Stupid team tomorrow or Wednesday (The Common Man will be posting there once or twice a week from here on out), his regular guest spot at The Daily Something, and a ridiculously entertaining (and long) interview with former Expo and Blue Jay Balor Moore. Check back often, it's going to be busy.

The Minnesotan Candidates

Bad news on the Joe Nathan front today. As Craig Calcaterra reported today, the Twins’ elite closer has a torn ulnar collateral ligament. The Common Man wishes he was wrong yesterday to doubt the initial assessment that this injury was minor, but it looks likely that Nathan is headed for Tommy John surgery (gee, The Common Man wrote about that last week, too). So while TCM remains convinced the Twins are well-positioned to absorb the loss of Nathan, the big question today (as Craig asks) is who takes over the closer spot in the wake of Nathan’s injury?

Let’s look at the candidates:

Jon Rauch
Because he has closing experience, Rauch will undoubtedly be considered the frontrunner. However, it’s not as though Rauch’s experience was all sunshine and lollipops. Rauch saved 17 games for the Nationals in 2008 with a 2.98 ERA before he was traded to the D-backs. However, he also blew five saves and was pretty clearly pitching over his head. Rauch certainly did a fine job last year after coming over from Arizona, posting a 1.72 ERA and winning 5 games in 17 games, striking out 14 in 15 innings. But that was in extremely limited action. His career FIP is 4.02. And all of his success has come in the National League. Last year, Rauch’s K/BB ratio was his lowest since 2005 and his WHIP was a career high (except for 28 innings in 2002), but was mitigated by a career low HR/9. Rauch in the closer role probably won’t be a disaster, but you should expect an ERA from 3.75-4.00.

Matt Guerrier
Buster Olney tweeted that Guerrier might be the Twins’ best option. Aside from a hiccup in 2008, Matt Guerrier has indeed been a solid option out of the bullpen since 2005. Guerrier’s K/9 is relatively low for a reliever, coming in at 6.01. Last year, despite a dip in his K/9, Guerrier posted a 2.94 K/BB and a .97 WHIP. His terrific performance in 2009, however, was lucky. His BABIP was an unsustainable .222 last year, far off his career mark of .278. Guerrier’s 2.36 ERA is attractive, but his underlying numbers suggest he should remain in the 7th inning slot, particularly as his GB/FB percentage was at a career low. Even at his best last year, Guerrier’s FIP was 4.35. Expect his ERA to rise dramatically.

Jose Mijares
Mijares is not likely to get the nod at the end of the game, given that he’s the only dependable lefty the Twins have in their bullpen (not including potential #5 starter Brian Duensing). But the Twins have not shied away from lefty closers in the past (Eddie Guardado), and Mijares has proved effective in his 1+ seasons in the Twins’ pen. Mijares’ K/9 last year was a strong 8.03. However, his BB/9 (3.36) was high and he is a flyball pitcher. Mijares’ numbers are artificially skewed because he’s been used disproportionately against lefty batters. In his major league career, Mijares has allowed a .458 OPS against lefties, while a .704 against righties. If Mijares moves in to the closer role, obviously, his exposure to righties is going to increase dramatically, and his overall numbers will suffer. There are two other strikes working against Mijares. First, if he closes, the Twins will want to carry another lefty reliever. That could be Brian Duensing, Jose Lugo, Mike Maroth, or Glen Perkins (or the Twins could go outside the organization). None of these options is ideal. Second, Mijares has been criticized in the past for being a bit of a head-case. It’s unclear how fair this criticism is, or how much may have been due to simple immaturity. But if Mijares is mentally unprepared for the pressures the job creates, his tenure could end in disaster.

Pat Neshek
Frankly, this is probably TCM’s favorite option, as The Common Man is an unapologetic Neshek fanboy. His freaky delivery and fan-friendly persona have made him a favorite of Twins fans too, who would embrace the colorful side-armer as a closer. Neshek has struck out 10.59 batters per nine in his career and has a strong 3.84 BB/K. He is an extreme flyball pitcher, but has kept his HR/9 low. The trouble, of course, is Neshek’s injury history. As he works his way back, it’s unclear just how soon Neshek will be ready and how effective he will be in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. The Twins might be better served by letting Neshek work his way back more slowly.

Francisco Liriano
This is idea is batshit insane, but might also be the Twins best chance to replace Nathan’s production at the end of games. Liriano has himself struggled since coming back from Tommy John, posting an ugly 5.80 ERA last year, and a not much better 4.87 FIP. However, all reports out of Florida and the Dominican Republic this winter have heralded the return of the phenom who won 12 games and posted a 2.16 ERA and 144 Ks in 121 innings in 2006. Liriano’s career K/9 is a terrific 9.22 and, when healthy, his K/BB ratio is solid. In addition, when he’s on, Liriano generates a ton of ground balls. Moving Liriano to the back of the pen creates two problems. First, the Twins would lose a great deal of Liriano’s value by throwing him an inning or two at a time. Starters are inherently more valuable than relievers because they throw more innings and, thus, have a greater impact on the outcome of the game. It would also leave the Twins’ rotation a man short to start 2010. The solution would be to plug last year’s hero, Brian Duensing (5-2, 3.64 in 84 innings) into the rotation. Duensing is, at best, a mid-rotation starter, and would probably not be able to match the production of a healthy Liriano, but would allow the Twins to have an above average 5th starter, while maintaining an elite level of performance out of the closer role. Much has been made in the past about the injury risks associated with Liriano’s delivery, and perhaps a move to the pen would reduce some of the wear on Liriano’s arm.

Other relievers
As The Common Man mentioned yesterday, a Nathan injury opens up a role for other Twins relievers, such as Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney, or even Carlos Gutierrez. It also creates the possibility that the Twins will look outside of their organization for help. If the Rays falter in the AL East, the Twins would likely be interested in Rafael Soriano, for instance. Likewise, the team may make a push for Joaquim Soria, Mike Gonzalez, Billy Wagner, Trevor Hoffman, Kerry Wood, Matt Capps, Heath Bell, Octavio Dotel, or whoever becomes available and is effective once teams start to fall out of contention.

Note: The Common Man omitted Jesse Crain from the discussion. This probably says more about Jesse Crain than it does about The Common Man at this point.