The Committee Votes "Aye"

Joe Nathan’s injury created significant questions for the Twins as they sorted out their bullpen options for 2010. Thankfully, when faced with a choice, the team did not panic, and indeed did something sensible. Gardenhire told reporters on Sunday, "we're going to start out and we're going to look at a lot of different people and we'll see what happens. We've got about three or four different guys we can go to."

So, the Twins announced plans to go with what’s being called a “closer by committee” approach at the end of games, but which really amounts to riding the hot hand in the short term and letting the competition play itself out organically. The Common Man is fairly pleased by this. After all, as he pointed out earlier this month, there is really no perfect internal solution for the loss of an elite reliever like Joe Nathan. Rather, the Twins are faced with a number of inexperienced choices who don’t necessarily profile well as shut-down closers in the new sense we’re talking about here. Yet, all of the relievers in question are quality pitchers, and are likely to be average to above-average at the end of the game. There’s no need to give up some of the team’s elite young talent for another largely fungible reliever.

Instead, the team has made value moves. The signing of Ron Mahay indicated, at first, that the Twins were interested in moving Jose Mijares into the role. However, Mahay’s minor league contract could also be taken as a sign that Francisco Liriano has won the 5th starter spot and that Brian Duensing would spend at least part of this season in Rochester, where he’ll be a starter. Either way, if he makes the team Mahay figures to allow Mijares the freedom to enter games in higher leverage situations in the 8th or 9th inning, rather than serving as the team’s de facto LOOGY. Indeed, what the Twins are doing will allow them to pick the matchups that are, in theory, the most effective, bringing in Mijares against Sizemore and Hafner, while using Rauch or Guerrier against Magglio and Cabrera.

As Rob Neyer tweeted tonight, Gardy’s exclusion of Pat Neshek from his list of end of game options is somewhat disappointing. Neshek is incredibly popular with the fans and is generally an excellent relief option against both righties and lefties. His demeanor suggests an ability to work past difficult outings, and his stuff, if he’s healthy, is absolutely filthy. Alas, the Twins seem to have decided to baby Neshek a little bit at the start of the year, easing him back into an expanded role with the club. And The Common Man can respect that, even if he’s eager to see his favorite side-armer get some saves. In fact, one added benefit for the Twins (but not for Neshek) is that a lower save total will result in a lower salary once Pat becomes eligible for arbitration next season.

Again, The Common Man continues to expect Jon Rauch to get the majority of the opportunities at the end of the game. Despite their reasoned approach here, the Twins have always been a relatively conventional team, and Rauch has the look and at least a little bit of experience with the role. Rauch will not be as effective as Joe Nathan, and it will be interesting to see just how the Twins react to this. Indeed, if the team senses weakness, there’s an excellent chance they could pull the trigger on an even more panicky deal than the ones they’ve rejected thusfar. But if they can stay patient and flexible, allowing the most effective relievers to rise to the top of the bullpen ladder, the team is likely to find itself in relatively good shape this year.

This experience can also serve as a strong lesson on building a bullpen going forward, reminding Bill Smith that closers are mostly made, not born, and not to overextend the club for replaceable talent.

Note: The Common Man is sorry for a awfully short post today (by TCM's standards). He's got a lot coming up this week, including a new Beer Leaguers tomorrow, his first post as a part of the Its About the Money Stupid team tomorrow or Wednesday (The Common Man will be posting there once or twice a week from here on out), his regular guest spot at The Daily Something, and a ridiculously entertaining (and long) interview with former Expo and Blue Jay Balor Moore. Check back often, it's going to be busy.

Dead Snow, Live Links

It’s a relatively slow Monday on the baseball front. A lot of games were rained out at the end of last week and no one has said anything so blatantly stupid that The Common Man needs to comment on it. Instead, The Common Man takes the lazy way out. After a one-sentence movie review, TCM dumps some links.

Last night, while waiting for The Uncommon Wife to finish with some work so they could finally watch Lost, The Common Man streamed the Norwegian horror-comedy Dead Snow on Netflix. The review: Dead Snow gleefully works out the remaining angst Norwegians feel about their occupation during WWII by pitting Nazi Zombies (or Zombie Nazis) against young people in a secluded cabin in the mountains; fans of gore, snowmobile-related dismembering, and general hilarity will appreciate this celluloid therapy session, as the humor lands consistently despite the subtitles.

As a special bonus, here is what The Common Man tweeted during the film, a new feature of TCM.com he calls Mystery Science Tweeter 3000 (Snark in 140 characters or less):

Should I make a movie about zombies or Nazis? Why not both? Hurray for Dead Snow! The best Nazi Zombie movie Norway has to offer.

Which is more correct Zombie Nazis or Nazi Zombies?

70 years later, the Norwegians are finally fighting the Nazi occupation.

This movie must have been so cathartic for Norwegians.

What did @Ebertchicago think of Dead Snow?

Lesson learned: Never sneak up on a guy when he's hacking the shit out of a platoon of Nazi Zombies (or Zombie Nazis, which do they prefer?)

Good God, how many Zombie Nazis are there in Norway? Can't frickin walk to the bathroom without tripping over one.

Zombie Nazis: All they want is their gold. They're like Zombie Pirates that way. And Leprechauns.

Look, TCM doesn't want to question the logic of a movie that is based on the premise that Zombie Nazis walk among us...

but who hides the zombie gold in a cabin in the Norwegian woods anyway? Why didn't the zombies just keep it? TCM is confused.

Now, on to the linky goodness:

TCM is embarrassed he didn’t know that yesterday was Kirby Puckett’s 50th birthday. Like Friend of the Blog, Bill at The Daily Something, The Common Man’s favorite player of all time is undoubtedly Puckett, despite the unfortunateness that plagued his final years. Bill has a terrific, and fair, retrospective of Kirby’s career up. Shocking question: Has it really been 15 years since Puckett played his final game?

Lar at Wezen-ball has a repost up today from last year’s Pi-Day festivities. It’s fun to see, but not nearly as interesting as his long, engaging, and impressive history of the batting helmet. Not even The Common Man knew that batting helmets were so interesting.

Historian Adrian Burgos Jr. guest-posted on JoePos’s essential blog last week on some context behind Torii Hunter’s idiotic statements last week. Burgos writes that “there is a long history of black Latinos experiencing racism and discrimination in U.S. professional baseball,” and reminds us that Minnie Minoso, Vic Power, Martin Dihigo, and the first Ozzie Virgil endured great injustice in their effort to just play baseball. But the experiences of black Latinos has been largely invisible in the history of baseball’s race relations, largely because their history doesn’t easily fit into the larger narrative of Americans’ struggle for racial equality and we, as a people, are less familiar with it. As Burgos reminds us, “The national pastime has become predominantly a middle-class sport. And that is a discussion from which Latinos ought not to be shut out of.”

Unlike Aaron Gleeman, The Common Man is bullish on both the signings of Denard Span (5 years, $16 million + $9 million option) and Nick Blackburn (4 years, $14 million + $8 million option). Span’s contract figures to be a terrific deal for the Twins, and even may end up being a highly tradable commodity if the team comes up with some additional impact outfielders down the line (five years is a long time). Blackburn’s deal is a little less team-friendly, as he is averaging just slightly more money than Span and pitchers have a higher collapse rate than hitters. Still, Blackburn has been incredibly consistent over the last two years, and even at $6-8 million he’ll be below market for an average pitcher. Barring a ridiculous collapse, Blackburn figures to earn his money. Again, if the Twins continue to develop mid-rotation starters, and Blackburn holds his value, this is an entirely dealable player and contract when the team is looking to upgrade elsewhere. And anything the team can do to demonstrate to Joe Mauer that it's looking to compete for the long term, and encourage him to sign up, is good in TCM's book.

And finally, The Common Man considers himself a huge baseball and Twins fan, and will eventually need to go in for a bit of knee surgery at some point in the future. All of which is why TCM is so disappointed he didn’t think of this first. To think, while he was under, the doctors could help TCM contribute to Joe Nathan’s recovery and success. Kudos to John McDonald of Very Well Then for thinking of the team first. (h/t to Howard Sinker)

The Minnesotan Candidates

Bad news on the Joe Nathan front today. As Craig Calcaterra reported today, the Twins’ elite closer has a torn ulnar collateral ligament. The Common Man wishes he was wrong yesterday to doubt the initial assessment that this injury was minor, but it looks likely that Nathan is headed for Tommy John surgery (gee, The Common Man wrote about that last week, too). So while TCM remains convinced the Twins are well-positioned to absorb the loss of Nathan, the big question today (as Craig asks) is who takes over the closer spot in the wake of Nathan’s injury?

Let’s look at the candidates:

Jon Rauch
Because he has closing experience, Rauch will undoubtedly be considered the frontrunner. However, it’s not as though Rauch’s experience was all sunshine and lollipops. Rauch saved 17 games for the Nationals in 2008 with a 2.98 ERA before he was traded to the D-backs. However, he also blew five saves and was pretty clearly pitching over his head. Rauch certainly did a fine job last year after coming over from Arizona, posting a 1.72 ERA and winning 5 games in 17 games, striking out 14 in 15 innings. But that was in extremely limited action. His career FIP is 4.02. And all of his success has come in the National League. Last year, Rauch’s K/BB ratio was his lowest since 2005 and his WHIP was a career high (except for 28 innings in 2002), but was mitigated by a career low HR/9. Rauch in the closer role probably won’t be a disaster, but you should expect an ERA from 3.75-4.00.

Matt Guerrier
Buster Olney tweeted that Guerrier might be the Twins’ best option. Aside from a hiccup in 2008, Matt Guerrier has indeed been a solid option out of the bullpen since 2005. Guerrier’s K/9 is relatively low for a reliever, coming in at 6.01. Last year, despite a dip in his K/9, Guerrier posted a 2.94 K/BB and a .97 WHIP. His terrific performance in 2009, however, was lucky. His BABIP was an unsustainable .222 last year, far off his career mark of .278. Guerrier’s 2.36 ERA is attractive, but his underlying numbers suggest he should remain in the 7th inning slot, particularly as his GB/FB percentage was at a career low. Even at his best last year, Guerrier’s FIP was 4.35. Expect his ERA to rise dramatically.

Jose Mijares
Mijares is not likely to get the nod at the end of the game, given that he’s the only dependable lefty the Twins have in their bullpen (not including potential #5 starter Brian Duensing). But the Twins have not shied away from lefty closers in the past (Eddie Guardado), and Mijares has proved effective in his 1+ seasons in the Twins’ pen. Mijares’ K/9 last year was a strong 8.03. However, his BB/9 (3.36) was high and he is a flyball pitcher. Mijares’ numbers are artificially skewed because he’s been used disproportionately against lefty batters. In his major league career, Mijares has allowed a .458 OPS against lefties, while a .704 against righties. If Mijares moves in to the closer role, obviously, his exposure to righties is going to increase dramatically, and his overall numbers will suffer. There are two other strikes working against Mijares. First, if he closes, the Twins will want to carry another lefty reliever. That could be Brian Duensing, Jose Lugo, Mike Maroth, or Glen Perkins (or the Twins could go outside the organization). None of these options is ideal. Second, Mijares has been criticized in the past for being a bit of a head-case. It’s unclear how fair this criticism is, or how much may have been due to simple immaturity. But if Mijares is mentally unprepared for the pressures the job creates, his tenure could end in disaster.

Pat Neshek
Frankly, this is probably TCM’s favorite option, as The Common Man is an unapologetic Neshek fanboy. His freaky delivery and fan-friendly persona have made him a favorite of Twins fans too, who would embrace the colorful side-armer as a closer. Neshek has struck out 10.59 batters per nine in his career and has a strong 3.84 BB/K. He is an extreme flyball pitcher, but has kept his HR/9 low. The trouble, of course, is Neshek’s injury history. As he works his way back, it’s unclear just how soon Neshek will be ready and how effective he will be in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. The Twins might be better served by letting Neshek work his way back more slowly.

Francisco Liriano
This is idea is batshit insane, but might also be the Twins best chance to replace Nathan’s production at the end of games. Liriano has himself struggled since coming back from Tommy John, posting an ugly 5.80 ERA last year, and a not much better 4.87 FIP. However, all reports out of Florida and the Dominican Republic this winter have heralded the return of the phenom who won 12 games and posted a 2.16 ERA and 144 Ks in 121 innings in 2006. Liriano’s career K/9 is a terrific 9.22 and, when healthy, his K/BB ratio is solid. In addition, when he’s on, Liriano generates a ton of ground balls. Moving Liriano to the back of the pen creates two problems. First, the Twins would lose a great deal of Liriano’s value by throwing him an inning or two at a time. Starters are inherently more valuable than relievers because they throw more innings and, thus, have a greater impact on the outcome of the game. It would also leave the Twins’ rotation a man short to start 2010. The solution would be to plug last year’s hero, Brian Duensing (5-2, 3.64 in 84 innings) into the rotation. Duensing is, at best, a mid-rotation starter, and would probably not be able to match the production of a healthy Liriano, but would allow the Twins to have an above average 5th starter, while maintaining an elite level of performance out of the closer role. Much has been made in the past about the injury risks associated with Liriano’s delivery, and perhaps a move to the pen would reduce some of the wear on Liriano’s arm.

Other relievers
As The Common Man mentioned yesterday, a Nathan injury opens up a role for other Twins relievers, such as Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney, or even Carlos Gutierrez. It also creates the possibility that the Twins will look outside of their organization for help. If the Rays falter in the AL East, the Twins would likely be interested in Rafael Soriano, for instance. Likewise, the team may make a push for Joaquim Soria, Mike Gonzalez, Billy Wagner, Trevor Hoffman, Kerry Wood, Matt Capps, Heath Bell, Octavio Dotel, or whoever becomes available and is effective once teams start to fall out of contention.

Note: The Common Man omitted Jesse Crain from the discussion. This probably says more about Jesse Crain than it does about The Common Man at this point.

Fighting the Urge to Panic

Hey, remember when The Common Man was supposed to go to Arizona this weekend. Yeah, not so much. It turns out that The Boy’s fever and cough stemmed from a mild case of pneumonia, which pretty much made flying a bad idea and relegated him to the couch for much of the weekend. The trip is being rescheduled, perhaps for the last weekend in March, when TCM hopes to enjoy the last bits of Spring Training before teams head north.

Someone else didn’t exactly have the weekend he expected, and The Common Man is feeling his pain today. Twins closer Joe Nathan was shut down on Saturday after experiencing some elbow soreness. Nathan is an elite closer who has had a 1.87 ERA and averaged 41 saves a season in his six years as the Twins’ closer. His K/9 is an otherworldly 11.1 and his K/BB is a terrific 4.32. Though he has typically been limited to around 70 innings, his overwhelming dominance at the end of games is a comfort to Twins fans that they can stop worrying when they have a lead after 8.

At this point, Nathan and the Twins are saying they are not terribly concerned, but their actions are merely “precautionary.” The Twins have not been the most forthcoming organization with accurate medical information recently. The troubles that relievers Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, and Pat Neshek, OF Rondell White, and 3B Joe Crede underwent never were really addressed efficiently, and all five have suffered significant time and performance loss as a result. The Twins’ insistence that Neshek rehab his elbow injury, in particular, was troubling, given that the best case scenario involved him getting back after several months on the DL and the worst (and far more likely case) had him missing a year with Tommy John surgery. Alas, the rehab didn’t take, and Neshek needed the surgery anyway, and has been out for nearly two seasons after being one of the best set-up men in the majors in 2007, relegated to rehab, blogging, and marathon sessions of autograph signing. All of which is to say that The Common Man isn’t taking what the Twins have to say at face value, but he’s hoping for the best.

Fortunately, even if the Twins were forced to break camp without Nathan (who is terrific with fans, by the way), the team is far better prepared for it than in years past. Yes, Nathan is an elite reliever and is head and shoulders above the rest of the bullpen. But his actual impact on the club’s fortunes is relatively low, especially this year. First and foremost, the Twins have done a good job this offseason in upgrading their offense. The outfield is better, 2B is better, 3B is more reliable on a consistent basis, SS has been upgraded, and DH is stronger. Even the bench is stronger. Barring a rash of injuries, the club will not have to turn regularly to Matt Tolbert or Alexi Casilla, and will not have to bring in questionable offensive players such as Orlando Cabrera. Teams that have the ability to outslug their opponents generally have less need of a truly Nathan-level closer, since they have fewer one-run leads to protect in the final frame.

And for those late innings, the Twins have put together a stronger overall bullpen this year than in year’s past. In 2009, the Twins benefited from three terrific seasons from Nathan, Matt Guerrier, and Jose Mijares, who combined to post a 2.26 ERA in 206 innings. However, the team also had to endure rough performances out of the back of their bullpen, particularly from Bobby Keppel (4.83 ERA in 54 IP), Jesse Crain (4.70 ERA in 52 IP), R.A. Dickey (4.62 ERA in 64 IP), and Luis Ayala (a deceptive 4.18 in 32 IP). Instead, in addition to Guerrier and Mijares, the team will get a full season out of the intimidating Jon Rauch (3.65 ERA in 320 IP over the past four years), Clay Condrey (3.16 in 111 IP over the past two years). Jesse Crain remains with the club and hopes to bounce back from a subpar and injury filled (balky shoulder) 2009. He may not be the same pitcher who won 12 games and had a 2.71 ERA in 2005, but a return to the 3.50 ERA of 2006 and 2008 is likely if his shoulder holds. And, of course, 2010 will see the return of the aforementioned, Frisbee-throwing, and hopefully full-strength, Neshek to the Twins’ pen.

Indeed, if the Twins do lose Nathan, this could create an additional bullpen spot or spots for last year’s season-saving swingman Brian Duensing (3.64 ERA in 84 IP) or minor-league phenoms Rob Delaney (9.2 K/9, 5.37 BB/K, .994 WHIP, and 2.41 ERA in 4 minor league seasons) and Anthony Slama (13.3 K/9, 3.66 BB/K, 1.04 WHIP, 1.86 ERA in 3 minor league seasons).

Not that losing Nathan is a good thing. Undoubtedly, the effectiveness of the Twins’ pen would suffer somewhat, and that’s an important consideration in what could be a tight division in 2010. But the Twins are well-prepared in that they have less need this year for a lights-out closer and more quality options for the pen than any year since 2005 or 2006. Which is why The Common Man isn’t pushing the panic button yet.