The Path to Respectability: Pittsburgh Pirates

by Jason Wojciechowski

You've seen this a couple of times before, so you know how it goes. Today, we examine the mediocre team with the best stadium in the game, the Pittsburgh Pirates. They're not the sad-sacks they used to be, what with some young stars and a well-regarded front office that's causing better things to come, but they're not really going to be competitive this year, either.

The Baseball Prospectus depth charts, the place I start, has the Pirates coming out 72-90 this year, fifth in the tall stack of the N.L. Central. Their lineup of position players doesn't look terrible, with no Jimmy Paredeses hanging around, but the pitching, which features such luminaries as Jeff Karstens, Kevin Correia, and Charlie Morton, is not impressive. Still, I think we're better off trying to squeeze extra wins out of the position players than the pitchers because the former, at least, have some youth and upside to their credit.

As before, I cheat right off the top: we'll count on five wins of run-distribution luck over the course of the season, leaving us needing to find eleven wins on the roster to get the team to the Holy Grail of Respectability, 88 wins.

Barmes-Storming

By The Common Man

It is a strange world we live in where Clint Barmes can earn $11 million to play in Pittsburgh over the next two years, but given the contracts doled out to fellow middle-infielders Jamey Carroll and Mark Ellis this offseason, Barmes' contract seems to fit the market. Barmes is better than either Carroll or Ellis because he has long demonstrated the ability to be a plus defender at shortstop. Carroll is a better hitter, given his patient approach, but he's stretched at shortstop and is five years older. Ellis may be a great defender at 2B, but shortstop is the tougher position, Barmes has managed to outhit Ellis in at least two (and possibly three) of the past four years and is two years younger. Plus, Ellis' offense has clearly slipped. While a similar slip defensively is certainly a possibility for Barmes entering his age 33 season, there's been no evidence of a decline.


Barmes is an OBP-challenged hitter, with no patience at the plate, and without the ability to hit for average. He has some pop in his bat, but some of that will be mitigated by a move from Minute Maid/Enron/Whatever Park to PNC Park, which favors lefty power-hitters. He also clearly had the best season of his career last year, in which he hit well, stayed at one position all year, and fielded it well, but he is likely to be a 2 win player for at least the next season, barring injury (which he's generally done a good job of avoiding in his career).

It's a little weird to see that Pirates spending this much in free agency, especially after losing 90 games. But clearly their hot start in 2011 has them feeling like they can compete in a relatively weak NL Central that could see the Cubs start from scatch, and the exodus of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. Can they? Probably not. The signing of Rod Barajas, for all his pitch framing skills, should be terrifying Pittsburghians, their pitching was above its head for much of the season, and they still have major holes at 3B and 1B that they have to fill, and their front-line prospects are still years away from making an impact. The contract makes sense, but not necessarily for this team. Fortunately, it's not going to cripple the Pirates efforts to build a contender, regardless.

Tuesday Trade Tree: The Pirates' Treasures

By The Common Man

We woke up this morning to a brave new world that has the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have finished below .500 for the past 18 seasons, alone at the top of the National League Central. It’s tempting to conclude that these Pirates are being driven by high draft picks such as Andrew McCutchen (the official non-Twin of The Platoon Advantage), Paul Maholm, Neil Walker, and Pedro Alvarez. And while those players (excepting Alvarez, who has been a huge disappointment) have indeed been instrumental to the club’s unexpected success, the Pirates actually owe another large portion of their success in 2011 to three long-forgotten Buccos who the club acquired in the very early days of their descent, and were mere afterthoughts even when they were initially acquired by oft-maligned general managers Larry Doughty and Cam Bonifay.

Syd Thrift was apparently an amazing judge of talent in Pittsburgh. While Barry Bonds was already part of the organization, Thrift was responsible for drafting Bobby Bonilla from the White Sox in the Rule 5 draft, then trading for him again after the team returned him. He got Moises Alou in the January draft. He swindled the Yankees for Doug Drabek. Traded Tony Pena for Mike LaValliere and Andy Van Slyke. He got Gary Redus for nothing. And he hired Jim Leyland to run the team. He built the Pirates into contenders, but by the end of 1988, he was forced out by ownership. The core of players he put together would win 289 games from 1990-1992, and garner three straight AL East titles.

His successor, Doughty, did not have the same impact. He did acquire Jay Bell from the Indians for Felix Fermin. He got Don Slaught from the Yankees. And he lucked into acquiring Neal Heaton for his one All Star season. But more often, he was overmatched. With his team in the playoff chase in 1990, he dealt Willie Greene, Scott Ruskin and a player to be named to Montreal for Zane Smith. That player, who Dougherty mistakenly named in his press conference, was Moises Alou. Later that month, he put prospects Wes Chamberlain (Baseball America’s #25 ranked prospect) and Julio Peguero on what he thought was revocable waivers. They turned out to be irrevocable waivers and the Phillies claimed both of them. After the 1991 season, Doughty was fired “because of my gross errors far outweighed my successes,” he told reporters. Before he left, however, he signed an undrafted amateur, Jason Christiansen, to a minor league contract in June. Christiansen would rise through the Pirates system and become a trusted lefty reliever by the mid 1990s.

After Doughty’s replacement, Ted Simmons, suffered a heart attack in 1992, Cam Bonifay was elevated to the General Manager’s job. His tenure, of course, was an utter disaster. The team lost 675 games across the next eight seasons, with a .451 winning percentage. And he was fired in June of 2011, with the team in the middle of a 100 loss seasons, and the club struggling with a 19-41 record. Bonifay garnered a reputation for handing out big contracts to mediocre players, including Kevin Young, Pat Meares, and Derek Bell. In the middle of sinking the Pirates to the depths of the National League, Bonifay made two minor pickups, drafting the immortal Rob Mackowiak in the 53rd round of the 1996 draft, and purchasing Ricardo Rincon from the Mexican League in 1997.

And from these three humble beginnings, the 2011 Pirates were born. Observe:

Power Rankings Comments, Bonus Links and Snark

By The Common Man

First of all, a belated happy Fathers’ Day to all the dads out there. The Common Man didn’t mean to, but he celebrated much of his Fathers’ Day by being an absentee parent, allowing his own father to take The Boy and be a grandpa for much of the afternoon. Meanwhile, TCM was writing, watching the Twins, and cleaning up after an un-birthday party the day before. He was also working on his power rankings comments for ESPN, upon which he expounds every week in this space. So please, enjoy this special message on the Angels and the White Sox. Plus, there will be some bonus links at the end.

Power Rankings Comments Explained: National League

By The Common Man

The new Power Rankings are here!  The new Power Rankings are here!  But, as usual, there more to say that TCM can't fit into two short sentences, so he's expanded on his thoughts here.  Today, TCM talks about how truly awesome Andrew McCutchen has become, and how none of you seem to be noticing, and how dire the situation is in South Florida.  So, without further ado, bonus coverage of the Florida Marlins and Pittsburgh Pirates!

ESPN Power Rankings Comments Explained

By The Common Man

Rankings are powerful things, which is why ESPN does not entrust us with a vote in theirs, since The Common Man would probably end up putting the Twins 42nd and the Giants in “whiniest” place. But they do let us provide the comments. And every week, TCM expands on his thoughts in the power rankings for those teams that aren’t represented in the SweetSpot Network. So without further ado, here’s bonus coverage of the White Sox, Angels, Marlins, and Pirates:

Steve Berthiaume Loses a Game for the Wins Crowd

By The Common Man

The Common Man actually likes Steve Berthiaume, who he has mocked mercilessly for his decision to pick the Astros to win the NL Central. Which, by the way, is still hilarious.

That said, Bert has a good sense of humor about himself, is from Wisconsin, and has gone out of his way to embrace SweetSpot Network bloggers like The Common Man. Which is why TCM is so sad that he has to say this: Steve, you are so terribly, horribly wrong about this that it is…God, just painful.

Berthiaume lays out the argument today that we should respect Kevin Correia’s win total for the Pittsburgh Pirates, saying “let's not do a sabermetric sidestep around one simple fact: There is still only ONE stat that counts in the division standings and that's wins. And no major league pitcher has more wins than Pittsburgh's Kevin Correia.” Which, while true, ignores the fact that pitcher wins and team wins are not the same thing. In fact they are completely different definitions. All Correia has to do to get a “win” is escape the 5th inning with a lead that his bullpen doesn’t relinquish. Teams have to be ahead at the end of 9 innings. So while Correia’s team has won in 8 of his 12 starts, Roy Halladay has started 9 games that his team has won, even though he’s only credited with 7 “wins.” Ditto with Cole Hamels. Isn’t that more impressive?

But that’s not even the real point.

NL Power Rankings Comments Explained

Happy Memorial Day everyone.  Here's our post commemorating the day and the reason we are free to blog and call Bill Smith a terrible general manager.  It's Power Rankings day again on ESPN, so TCM is expanding on his comments on the Mothership this morning.  So without further ado, here's a few extra words on the unexpected success of the Pirates and Marlins.

Quick Hits and Links

By The Common Man

Because of the West Coast road trip the Twins are on and his recent forrays into single parenting while The Uncommon Wife has been away, The Common Man admits that he fell asleep several times during last night’s Twins game. And it wasn’t just nodding off. TCM consciously chose to lay down on the couch during the game, knowing what would probably happen. And he dropped off for a half-hour at one point (waking up for the top of the 9th) and then falling asleep again after Plouffe’s sac fly in the 10th and staying that way until 2:00. As such, TCM is tired and in no mood to write a long column today. Instead, you get this:

NL Power Rankings Comments Explained

By The Common Man

When the ESPN Power Rankings come out, we're restricted to just a couple of quick sentences with each team. TCM's a lot more long-winded than that, so he's compelled to expand on those comments some more, and provide some context.  So, without further ado, here are the Diamondbacks, Pirates, and Marlins.

NL Power Rankings Comments Explained

By The Common Man

Once again, ESPN’s Power Rankings are up, and The Common Man contributed the comments for the four NL clubs that are not currently covered in the SweetSpot Network. And as before, TCM wants to expand on the comments he provided for each club, the Rockies, Marlins, Pirates, and Diamondbacks:

Power Rankings Explained

By The Common Man

Every week, Bill and The Common Man are asked to help out our friends at ESPN with a brief comment for the Monday Power Rankings about each of the seven teams that are not represented in the SweetSpot network. We work hard on these, but ultimately only get a sentence or two to get our points across, so we thought it might be worth our time and yours to give you a slightly longer take on the larger overall points we were trying to make. So every week, when we have more to say, we will expand on those thoughts here.  Today, The Common Man breaks down the Rockies, Diamondbacks, Marlins and Pirates.

Pirates X-Factor: Pedro Alvarez

By The Common Man

We're doing a few of these little "X Factor" posts in conjunction with ESPN's season previews, which will run on the big site tomorrow. Keep an eye out.

The Pirates aren't going anywhere this year, but have a few nice hitters that look like building blocks going forward. Andrew McCutchen is a force who is quickly turning into one of the best players in the National League. Neil Walker surprised as a solid 2B in his first season at the keystone. Jose Tabata has a solid approach at the plate and is a good basestealer, who could end up adding more power in the next year or so.


But big questions surround former #2 overall pick Pedro Alvarez, who has the talent to be an impact hitter, but whose plate discipline has been nothing short of atrocious. Last year, he struck out in more than 30% of his at bats at the big league level, while walking just once for every 3.22 Ks. He simply does not make enough contact. If he had played enough to qualify for the batting title, Alvarez would have been third from the bottom in contact percentage, according to Fan Graphs, behind only noted whiffers Mark Reynolds, Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard. This is mainly due to his absolute inability to reach anything out of the strike zone, where he would have trailed only Reynolds with enough playing time.

Strikeouts aren't nearly as bad as most fans think. They often are the price for better patience and power, which can make a play much more valuable. But Alvarez's skills in those two areas are still maturing. He is still young, he'll play as a 24 year old this year, and has room to grow. But whether he learns to actually control the strike zone is going to determine whether he ends up being another Adam Dunn, on which the Pirates can build their franchise back up, or Tony Batista, on whom they cannot.

Minor League Journal Part III: First Impressions

By Ian Heisel

(Editor's Note: Ian Heisel was a minor league pitcher in the Pirates organization for two years before joining Independent League Washington Wild Things for two seasons.  Ian has agreed to share his story as a minor league ballplayer with us here at The Platoon Advantage.  The first and second installments of his story are here and here respectively.  Today, Ian discusses his first days at Pirate City for extended Spring Training, makes a bad first impression, and bears witness to the end of the road for several young hopefuls.)

I was exhausted when I finally got to my room and got a chance to meet my roommate, Angel, who didn’t speak English. All I wanted to do was sleep but it was time for dinner at Pirate City. Thankfully, Angel and I were able to communicate enough to get to the buses that would shuttle us to the complex. Eating with the rest of the prospects, I started to get a little more comfortable, until Tom Prince, the former Major League catcher who was currently one of the minor league instructors, came up to me and growled, “Take your hat off during dinner, and don’t ever wear that shirt again.” Ohh great this is starting off real well.

As I was eating, Jake Cuffman, a fellow pitcher and Pittsburghian, came up and introduced himself to me. Finally a person I could relate to. And he spoke English! Jake had been drafted out of high school. He invited me over to his table, and I ended up seating with a group of other young pitchers who became friends, including Kevin Miller and Joe Salas.

3 Questions: Pittsburgh Pirates

By The Common Man

In an evil way, The Common Man kind of digs looking at these teams (like the Astros and Diamondbacks) who are poised to be bad. It certainly makes TCM feel better about the Twins. But there is little joy in looking at the Pirates, who have not had a winning season since 1992 and had their worst squad since 1952 on the field last year. As TCM used to work for the Pirates in a roundabout fashion, he still feels a small connection to the Buccos, and watching them flopping about the National League like a fish out of water and trying to hold a baseball bat is a bit painful. But given that he’s committed to do the whole of the National League in this 3 Questions series, here are the biggest questions facing the Pirates. As always, you can read our previous 3 Questions entries here.

Question 1: Have they hit bottom yet?

How do you know if you’ve hit rock bottom? TCM would have figured that the Bucs had hit bottom in 2009, when they traded long-time starters Freddie Sanchez and Jack Wilson (after trading Jason Bay the previous summer), along with Nyjer Morgan and Nate McLouth. Sure the team was going to play badly, but they picked up good young prospects in the deals and a fresh start would probably help the roster a little. But then, like Lindsey Lohan, they continued to stumble and fall further from relevancy.

Despite playing in a neutral park, the pitchers sported a 5.00 ERA and allowed a full run/game more than the league average. Likewise, the team featured the worst offense in the National League, scoring just 3.62 runs/game thanks, in large part, to a .304 team OBP. They lost 105 games and based on the runs they scored and those they allowed, they should have lost 109. Is any of this likely to improve in 2011? Frankly, it’s hard to see how it could get worse?

Question 2: Where are they better?

Ryan Doumit is going to give way to Chris Snyder full time, which is a step back offensively, but a defensive upgrade. If Snyder’s healthy, he’ll probably be an improvement. Former catcher Neil Walker is going to get in a full season at 2B, as is Pedro Alvarez at 3B, meaning that massive disappointments Andy LaRoche and Delwyn Young won’t be dragging down the rest of the offense. Jose Tabata had an underappreciated rookie campaign and sounds ready to build on that over a full campaign, and Andrew McCutchen remains one of the best young players in the league. Lyle Overbay has put up acceptable offensive numbers in the AL East, and may thrive in a move to the NL Central and to PNC Park, though his arrival moves Garrett Jones to RF, where the Bucs will take a defensive hit.

The pitching will be improved simply because of some subtraction. Zach Duke is out, and James McDonald is in for a full season. Charlie Morton simply can’t pitch any worse than he did. And the team’s signings of Scott Olsen, Kevin Correia, Wil Ledezma, and Brian Burres certainly can’t hurt. But the team’s nemesis has been its defense and it’s hard to see that they’ve improved that. Garrett Jones is huge defensive drop in RF. Alvarez is a defensive disaster that will have to be moved to 1B soon. Every defensive metric absolutely hates Neil Walker and Ronny Cedeno (despite his reputation as a glove man) up the middle. Even McCutchen, with his great speed, gets poor marks in CF. Last year, according to xFIP, the defense cost the Pirates about half a run on top of the pitchers’ ERA. It could be even worse in 2011, given the expanded roles for Walker and Alvarez. So, from a run-prevention standpoint, at least, there isn’t a lot of room for improvement in 2011.

Question 3: But are they at least on the right track?

You know, for as bad as they’re likely to be again (probably 95 losses), they still seem to be moving in the right direction. They are not over-committing to veteran mediocrities, instead bringing in Overbay on a one-year deal to plug a hole. They are letting the prospects play, giving them plenty of opportunity to develop (with the exception of Lastings Milledge, but every team seems to give up on him so there’s probably a good reason). Their handling of Ryan Doumit has been strange, to say the least, but he could still end up being useful to the Pirates or another team, if they can build up his value enough to trade him. And they’re dealing productive veterans for additional young players. They’ve got a lot of good young pitchers on the farm, and a nice young catcher in Tony Sanchez coming up.

This is a team that, like the Royals, has a chance to be frisky in 2012 and might break .500 in 2013. That’s hard to say to Pirates right now, given Pittsburgh’s historic run of futility, but TCM is hopeful that the Pirates are on the verge of turning things around. Maybe he still has that luxury, though, because he can watch from a distance. Sorry, Pirates fans.  For what it's worth, you still have the best damn logo in the league.

Neal Huntington: Trust the Process

by Bill

The fabulous satirical website The Onion has a pretty hilarious little baseball-related piece up this week: Pirates Mathematically Eliminated From Major League Baseball. I’ll make you click the link to get the actual humor from it, but the idea, of course, is that the Pirates have been so bad for so long -- they’ve all but locked up their 18th consecutive losing season -- that the team’s fifth straight loss on Monday knocked them not only out of contention for the 2010 pennant, but out of the league altogether. Of course, the Pirates as a franchise are still more than 100 games above the .500 mark, but you get the point: the Pirates have been really, hopelessly bad for a long time.

Which has led to a lot of frustration, especially over what is often portrayed in the media as the Pirates' constant cycle of trading players as soon as they become usable major leaguers.

It was over a year ago that I wrote in defense of the Pirates, GM Neal Huntington, and the trades he has made -- while I believe it’s true that they were basically a glorified farm team for the Littlefield and prior eras, I thought Huntington was different, had a plan, would make things better.

The 2010 Pirates have the worst record in the NL and are currently on pace to lose 105 games, six worse than last year. And I stand by everything I said. I don't know enough about how the Pirates are doing in the draft, international scouting, etc., but with those trades that everybody complains about, Huntington has been absolutely on the right track.

Just for fun, let's take a look at all those valuable vets Huntington has traded away (from BBREF's team transactions pages), and how they’ve fared in their post-Piratical lives:

1. Salomon Torres (since trade: 80 IP, 3.49 ERA/4.22 FIP, 28 saves)
   Torres, starting in his early 30s, emerged from obscurity to excel for four-plus years as mostly a short reliever with the Pirates. He'd slipped to a 5.47 ERA in 52 2/3 innings in 2007 (though his FIP and xFIP were still comfortably within his usual range). Huntington traded him to the Brewers after the 2007 season in return for two very minor pitching prospects, both now out of baseball themselves. Torres turned 36 before the 2008 season started, was thrust into the role of full-time closer and, completely unsurprisingly, performed at his established level. He then somewhat surprisingly retired in November, just before the Brewers were to decide whether to exercise his $3.75 million option. From Capps and Grabow to Dotel and Meeks and Hanrahan, the Pirates haven’t had any trouble, post-Torres, with turning up decent-or-better short relievers.
   
   
2. Damaso Marte (49.1 IP, 6.02 ERA/~5.40 FIP) and Xavier Nady (.254/.311/.421, ~.318 wOBA)
   Once a top prospect with the Padres, Nady (one of four Xaviers in MLB history) was finaly having his first healthy and productive year at age 29, batting .330 (albeit with an out of character .364 BABIP) with a 143 OPS+ in his first 89 games. Marte, then 33, had a stellar 2007 and was having a strong 2008 (3.47 ERA/3.32 FIP in 46 2/3 innings). Both Nady and Marte fell off almost immediately upon being traded to the Yankees, Nady reverting immediately back to his career norms and Marte posting a 5.40 ERA (though his FIP actually dropped). In 2009, things got even worse for both of them (though Marte was great in the playoffs), and more of the same in 2010 (though at least Nady is the Cubs’ problem now).
   Huntington absolutely crushed this one. For a 33 year old one-inning reliever and a guy having a career half-season, Huntington got an extremely young (former?) top prospect in Jose Tabata -- who, right now, looks like a future star -- and three pitchers who have shown at least some aptitude for success in the big leagues (Karstens, Ohlendorf and Daniel McCutchen). There are legitimate superstars traded every year who bring back packages nowhere near as good as that. Not sure if Huntington was looking at advanced stats like FIP and BABIP, knew about Marte and Nady’s pending regression through some other means, or just got lucky, but whatever it was, it was awesome.
   
   
3. Jason Bay(.269.370/.491, ~,375 wOBA)
   Okay, this one stings a little. Considering he was the closest thing the Pirates had to a star and was signed cheaply through 2009 when he was dealt in mid-’08, you’d think Huntington could have gotten more back for him than he got. But it’s not like the Pirates had any hope of either (a) winning in 2009 or (b) bringing him back post-2009, and at the time of the trade, Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen all at least had some promise. Not so much anymore, but the fourth guy coming back to Pittsburgh, pitcher Bryan Morris, is still just 23 and has had a successful 2010 between High-A and AA, so they might yet get something out of the deal. By the next time the Pirates might contend again (hell, maybe even if it’s 2011), I’d rather have Tabata patrolling left field than Bay, who is 31 and has struggled quite a bit in the first year of his twelve-decade deal with the Mets.
   
   
4. Jose Bautista (.246/.355/.502, ~.371 wOBA)
   Bautista had been a replacement-level starter for the Pirates for a couple years, and was disliked by the new management. They find a way to dump him on the Blue Jays, and two seasons later he much more than doubles his previous career high in home runs. If you saw that coming, you deserve a GM job. It also seems unlikely to be repeated.
   
   
5. Ronny Paulino (.269/.325/.391, ~.315 wOBA)
   Paulino had put up a tantalizing ,310/.360/.394 line in '06, but fell off in every way in '07 and alternated being demoted, horrible and angry in '08. He also reportedly plays awful defense. They traded him to the Phillies straight up for a slightly worse backup catcher, Jason Jaramillo. Ryan Doumit, the closest thing the Pirates have to a starting catcher, has been roughly on par with Paulino (.254/.313/.413).
   
   
6. Nate McLouth (.227/.325/.365, ~.302 wOBA).
   This seems to be the one that sent critics over the edge, since McLouth had come out of nowhere into stardom in 2008 but was gone in June 2009. You can sort of understand how some fans and writers would draw the conclusion that the Pirates simply nurture players until they're good enough to play in the majors and then trade them off to save money. Of course, McLouth was merely okay for the rest of 2009 and then fell off a cliff in 2010, and his trade cleared the way for Andrew McCutchen to immediately become the team’s best player. As it turned out, just dumping him was a bonus, and they got some potentially useful future pieces (Gorkys Hernandez and Jeff Locke) besides.
   
   
7. Sean Burnett (66 IP, 3.00 ERA/~3.70 FIP) and Nyjer Morgan (.291/.346/.359, ~.322 wOBA)
   Wash. Burnett is basically equivalent to Joel Hanrahan, the reliever the Nationals sent back in the trade..Morgan was having the better year but was older and had less room to grow than Milledge, and both have been pretty awful in 2010.
   
   
8. Eric Hinske(.249/.331/.482, ~.348 wOBA)
   Hinske, 32, was basically a pinch hitter and was signed to a one-year contract. He’d put up a .373 OBP in limited action for the Pirates in ‘09, but they had no reason to keep him once they determined they weren’t in the race. They didn’t get anything in return, really, and they actually sent the Yankees money to help cover his meager salary (how do the Yankees keep getting other teams to send them money in deals?). But it’s certainly not the kind of thing that cripples a franchise.
   
   
9. Adam LaRoche (.287/.358/.508, ~.380 wOBA)
   LaRoche raked for the Braves in ‘09 after they got him on a quick turnaround second deal with the Red Sox (he’d played just six games with Boston), but in 2010 with the Diamondbacks, he’s been back to being the average-or-slightly-better 1B he’s always been. His departure cleared the way for Garrett Jones -- who’s no better and hardly even younger but much cheaper -- and maybe eventually future star Pedro Alvarez if he can’t stick at third base. The trade basically only brought back organizational filler and salary relief, but it’s hard to argue that they lost anything of value.
   
   
10. Ian Snell(110.2 IP, 5.12 ERA/~5.80 FIP) and Jack Wilson (.240/.275/.310, ~260 wOBA)
    Snell was the Pirates’ opening-day starter in 2008, then was demoted to AAA for part of 2009. The Mariners liked his stuff (as did some of their smarter fans), but he’s never been able to put it together again and has been up and down from AAA with them as well. Wilson was always a glove-first SS; now he’s a glove-only SS (and may or may not have lost a step in that area as well, depending on which metric you prefer). Ronny Cedeno, one of the many pieces the deal brought over from the Mariners, has provided about as much value as the Pirates’ shortstop as Wilson has for the Mariners’. Former top prospect Jeff Clement was the big piece in the deal, but he’s now nearly 27 and still hasn’t given any sign of an ability to hit big-league pitching.
    
    
11. Tom Gorzelanny (138.1 IP, 4.10 ERA/~3.76 FIP) and John Grabow (50.2 IP, 5.33 ERA/~4.90 FIP)
    Gorzelanny is another good-looking young starter who quickly fell out of favor with the Pirates with a couple of ugly years (one bad, one mostly unlucky). He’s been excellent in 2010. Grabow was a solid but 30 year old and expendable relief pitcher. He was good in 25 innings for the Cubs in 2009 and bad in 25 innings for the Cubs so far in 2010, but almost the only difference is his home run rate (he’s given up 5 this year and one last), which is probably fluky on both ends.
    We’ve finally hit one I just don’t understand. Gorzellany was just 27 when the trade was made and can’t become a free agent until 2014 (the Cubs avoided arbitration by signing him to a 1-year, $800,000 contract for 2010). They knew he had (at least past tense) the ability to succeed in the majors. I just don’t see a reason to give up a guy like that at basically the low point of his value (and the package they got for him and Grabow isn’t even worth talking about).
    I guess they were frustrated with Gorzelanny and felt he needed a change of scenery, but you don’t just do that out of the kindness of your heart. Give him a change of scenery if you can actually get something of value for him. Gorzelanny is a guy who might have righted the ship and hung around to help the next Pirates contender.

It’s far too early to judge the trades Huntington has made this year -- dealing away D.J. Carrasco, Ryan Church, Bobby Crosby, Octavio Dotel, and Javier Lopez -- but I think it’s safe to say that none of those names are going to show up any time soon as key pieces of a playoff team.

All in all, aside from the Gorzelanny puzzler, I don’t see a single trade that has hurt or is likely to hurt the Pirates' competitive chances. Sure, losing Bay cost them a win or two in ‘08 and three or so in ‘09...two years in which they finished close to thirty games back of first place. Jose Bautista certainly wouldn’t make them a contender this year, and he’s not likely to repeat his success in 2011 or ‘12 or ‘13 when the Pirates could be ready to make a run. All the others failed immediately upon leaving the team and/or were almost immediately replaced by a younger player who provided the same or nearly the same production.

The bottom line is this: you can poke fun at the Pirates’ way of doing things all you like, but I’d much rather have Tabata, McCutchen, Jones, Alvarez, Milledge and even Cedeno getting experience and taking up those spots than Bay, McLouth, LaRoche, Nady, Hinske and Wilson. And I’d much rather be the Pirates for the next five years than, say, the Royals, Orioles or Astros.

The Unusual Suspect

What the hell? There have been questions about Jose Tabata's motivation and overall makeup before, and that's one of the central reasons the Bucs were able to pry him away in the Xavier Nady deal last year. But I'm not sure anyone would have pointed to "being tangentially associated with a kidnapping in Florida" was on the list of possible outcomes. At this point, after all the injuries, missteps, and now general weirdness that has happened to their prospects in the past ten years, if a giant piece of Skylab fell from the heavens and killed everyone at their minor league camp, The Common Man would not bat an eye.