Rangers X Factor: C.J. Wilson

By Bill

Not for lack of trying, but the Rangers now find themselves trying to defend a league championship with a rotation that finds at the top a guy just one year removed from being a full-time relief pitcher, and just two seasons removed from an absolutely disastrous year as the team's full-time closer. That makes C.J. Wilson a pretty obvious choice for the Rangers' "X Factor" for 2011.

Wilson responded brilliantly to his conversion back to a starter (about three-quarters of his minor league appearances were starts), especially by traditional methods, going 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA in 204 innings across 33 starts. But there are reasons to question whether that kind of performance can be repeated.

Wilson's strikeout rate dropped precipitously, as you might guess -- falling from 10.26 Ks per 9 to 7.5 as his innings per appearance jumped from almost exactly 1 to over 6 -- but you might expect at least a slight increase in control to go along with that, right? That is, if you're not striking out as many because you can't afford to simply throw every pitch as hard as you can (and his average fastball dropped by almost 3 miles per hour from 2009 to 2010), you'd think you'd have more of a say in where those pitches go, and give up fewer walks. But that didn't happen for Wilson; his walk rate actually climbed a bit, from 3.91 in '09 to 4.10 in '10. The combination resulted in the sixth-worst K/BB rate (1.83) of any qualifying pitcher in the AL, well below the league average for starters of 2.17.

Wilson was successful nonetheless, posting a 3.56 FIP that isn't terribly out of line with his ERA, but did it by limiting home runs, permitting only ten of them in his 204 innings. His xFIP of 4.20 (higher than the 2010 AL average ERA of 4.14, in this new pitcher-happy world) suggested he was probably getting pretty lucky on that front, though, and that several more of the fly balls he permitted should have left the yard. So if he's going to actually take his place as the ace of a contending team, one would think that at least one of these things should have to improve: he starts striking out more, starts walking less, and/or starts getting more ground balls.

I'm rooting for Wilson; he's a great Twitterer, and he's proving my "starter >> reliever" credo. And frankly, the Rangers, with the underappreciated Colby Lewis, the promising Derek Holland and easily the best offense in the division, will probably be at least competitive whether Wilson comes in at 3.00 or 4;50. But a repeat performance from Wilson would sure help, and it seems likely that if he's going to repeat his 2010, something's going to have to change.

Angels X Factor: Kendrys Morales

By Bill

This is another in the series of "X Factor" posts we're doing in conjunction with ESPN.com's spring previews, the AL versions of which will go up sometime on Tuesday.

For a pretty old team, and one whose recent history has been nothing if not predictable, the Angels seem to have a whole lot up in the air right now. Dan Haren is coming off his worst year by ERA since 2006 (though he was brilliant upon making the move to the Angels); Ervin Santana seems to alternate decent years with awful ones, and is coming off one of those decent ones; the bullpen is just kind of a mess. But the one question mark that seems bigger than all the others right now is the status of the team's first baseman and best hitter, Kendrys (formerly known as Kendry) Morales.

While never exactly a premiere prospect, Morales made top-100 lists in 2005 and 2006. He looked like something of a bust after his first three partial seasons in the majors, though, hitting just .249/.302/.408 in his first 407 plate appearances and not doing much in the minors to suggest he was a lot better than that. Then in 2009, at age 26, he took over the full-time job and hit .306/.355/.569 (139 OPS+) with 34 homers and 43 doubles -- a performance which, coupled with pretty good defense, was good for 4.0 WAR, close to an All-Star level performance (though probably not justifying his fifth-place MVP finish). He was off to a similar start last year on May 29 -- the power was down, but you might've expected that to jump back up as we entered June and July -- when he managed to fracture his left leg while celebrating a walk-off grand slam.

Morales missed the rest of last season, of course, and now will start the 2011 season on the DL. It's clearly a freak injury and didn't figure to affect his long-term potential, but now that he's still experiencing soreness ten months later, you have to wonder (or I do, as a complete novice as to all things medical) how long this will affect him, whether the soreness (in his plant leg when he bats right-handed, which is most of the time) will sap his power when he does come back, and how long it will take him to get back up into full game shape once he finally can play again.

While he's out, Mark Trumbo figures to be the guy at first base. Trumbo is 26 and, even after tying for the lead among all minor leaguers with 36 home runs in 2010, failed to make Keith Law's list of the Angels' top ten prospects and placed 8th on Kevin Goldstein's. Goldstein says his power is real, but that he offers little else. Considering he hit just .301 with a .366 OBP even in his big AAA year -- and this was in Salt Lake of the Pacific Coast League, an exceptionally hitter-friendly environment -- he could be a pretty big drain on the lineup from all the outs he'll be making, despite the home runs. Minor League Splits' Minor League Equivalency (MLE) Calculator suggests that Trumbo's 2010 in Salt Lake would translate to a .244/.300/.448 line in the bigs, well below average for a first baseman (especially one that plays poor defense).

This is a team with very little offensive firepower even with a healthy Morales -- the Angels' biggest offensive strength, if they can be said to have one, is their lack of a gaping hole at any one position except catcher, where Jeff Mathis continues to exercise his threatening hold on Mike Scioscia's mortal soul -- and with Trumbo in Morales' place, it goes from "uninspiring" right to "just plain weak." The Angels figure to have trouble competing with the Rangers and A's this season anyway, but if they're going to do it, it'll take a heavy dose of a healthy Morales to get them there.

White Sox X-Factor: Gordon Beckham

By The Common Man

We're doing a few of these little "X Factor" posts in conjunction with ESPN's season previews, which will run on the big site tomorrow. Keep an eye out.

Batting order doesn't matter all that much, but it would surely be a slight boon to the White Sox to have a resurgent Gordon Beckham hitting in front of Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko. Beckham lost the #2 slot in the lineup last year thanks to a disasterous first half that saw him hit just .206/.271/.280, but much of that was due to a .246 BABIP. His second half (.316/.380/.513), fueled by a .371 BABIP, was much better before a hand contusion curtailed his playing time in September. The true Gordon Beckham lies somewhere between these two extremes, but probably closer to the second-half Beckham that we saw last year given his history and that he's still only 24.


Aside from Konerko and Dunn, the rest of the Sox lineup is very OBP-challenged, but has good power. No other player with more than 100 plate appearances had an OBP of over .342 last year. And new 3B Brent Morel is a slick-fielding 24 year old with absolutely no plate discipline. And Beckham isn't exactly a walk-machine himself. But by evening out his luck and developing his skills a little more, he can improve that OBP back into the .340-.350 range. If he can't, the Sox are going to have to win with a lot of solo homers.

The White Sox are slight favorites to win the AL Central as they are currently constructed. But they'll improve those odds significantly if they can just get Beckham on track.

Indians X-Factor: Matt LaPorta

By The Common Man

We're doing a few of these little "X Factor" posts in conjunction with ESPN's season previews, which will run on the big site tomorrow. Keep an eye out.

It's make-or-break time for Matt LaPorta, the central piece of the CC Sabathia trade two years ago, who showed so much offensive potential in the minors (.310/.400/.548 in 111 games at AAA). Last year was an unmitigated disaster for LaPorta, however, as he hit just .221/.306/.362 in 425 PAs, while mostly playing first base. That wouldn't cut it from a shortstop, but it's untenable from a key offensive position.

The Indians aren't going anywhere in 2011, and are rightly focused on building from within. They had hoped that LaPorta was going to be an important part of that, but it's looking less and less like he's a building block, and more like he's a quadruple-A hitter, a notion that's supported by his horrible .148/.220/.370 Spring line. He's only 26 in 2011, so he may not entirely be done developing. And there's some chance that, even with more than 600 PAs under his belt, he's been the victim of some bad luck. He does have just a .260 career BABIP, which doesn't seem terribly sustainable, though some of that is due to his propensity to hit the ball in the air.

The restoration of the Cleveland Indians was already poised to be a slow process, especially since they have a lack of real boppers in the minors to begin with. LaPorta's development, or lack thereof, in 2011 will dictate not only how the rest of his career will shake out, but how the rebuilding plan will have to adjust to compensate for a zero at a premium offensive spot.

Pirates X-Factor: Pedro Alvarez

By The Common Man

We're doing a few of these little "X Factor" posts in conjunction with ESPN's season previews, which will run on the big site tomorrow. Keep an eye out.

The Pirates aren't going anywhere this year, but have a few nice hitters that look like building blocks going forward. Andrew McCutchen is a force who is quickly turning into one of the best players in the National League. Neil Walker surprised as a solid 2B in his first season at the keystone. Jose Tabata has a solid approach at the plate and is a good basestealer, who could end up adding more power in the next year or so.


But big questions surround former #2 overall pick Pedro Alvarez, who has the talent to be an impact hitter, but whose plate discipline has been nothing short of atrocious. Last year, he struck out in more than 30% of his at bats at the big league level, while walking just once for every 3.22 Ks. He simply does not make enough contact. If he had played enough to qualify for the batting title, Alvarez would have been third from the bottom in contact percentage, according to Fan Graphs, behind only noted whiffers Mark Reynolds, Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard. This is mainly due to his absolute inability to reach anything out of the strike zone, where he would have trailed only Reynolds with enough playing time.

Strikeouts aren't nearly as bad as most fans think. They often are the price for better patience and power, which can make a play much more valuable. But Alvarez's skills in those two areas are still maturing. He is still young, he'll play as a 24 year old this year, and has room to grow. But whether he learns to actually control the strike zone is going to determine whether he ends up being another Adam Dunn, on which the Pirates can build their franchise back up, or Tony Batista, on whom they cannot.

Rockies X-Factor: Chris Iannetta

By The Common Man

We're doing a few of these little "X Factor" posts in conjunction with ESPN's season previews, which will run on the big site tomorrow. Keep an eye out.

When he's not mashing, it's easy to forget why people like Chris Iannetta so much in the first place. He doesn't throw out baserunners (23% for his career) and he doesn't control balls in the dirt well (21 Wild Pitches and 5 Passed Balls in just 49 starts in 2010). But when he hits, Iannetta is the rarest of breeds, an offensively-minded catcher, who gives his teams a significant competitive advantage.


When Iannetta has struggled in the past, the Rockies have always had a fallback option. For two years, that was Yorvit Torrealba, and last year it was a resurgent Miguel Olivo. In 2011, the backup option behind the dish is Jose Morales, a catcher in the mold of Gregg Zaun, who offers a little patience and no power to speak of, who couldn't convince the Twins he was a better option than Drew Butera (aka the worst hitter in the Major Leagues) to back up Joe Mauer. There's no net for Iannetta in 2011, and he'll need to recover his stroke that saw him hit .264/.390/.505 in 2008 for the Rockies to conquer a competitive NL West.

The more The Common Man looks at Colorado, the less he sees. Troy Tulowitzki and Gonzalez are both incredible players, and Ubaldo Jimenez is a master on the mound. But their third baseman (Ian Stewart) has not developed into an offensive force, as expected. Todd Helton's back continues to sap his power (no homers this year in Spring Training). The #2 starter (Jorge de la Rosa) is signed for $30 mil over the next three years, walks 4 batters per nine innings, and has thrown more than 130 innings once (185 in 2009). Dexter Fowler, Seth Smith, and Jose Lopez, all penciled in for big playing-time in 2011, are underwhelming. A resurgent Chris Iannetta will go a long way to stabilize this team in the coming dogfight for the division title.

Marlins X Factor: Javier Vazquez

By Bill

We're doing a few of these little "X Factor" posts in conjunction with ESPN's season previews, which will run on the big site tomorrow.

I think the Marlins are going to be better than a lot of people expect. Yes, they made some bewildering moves this offseason, one of which involved sending Dan Uggla, arguably the team's best player last season, to the division rival Braves. But they've made some improvements, too, and are still better than the Mets and Nationals. I think they'll surprise some people.

To do that, though, will require another good pitcher or two to go with Josh Johnson. And one of the reasons I like the Marlins this season is that they've got plenty of possibilities in that area: Ricky Nolasco has had great peripherals for the last three seasons, but they haven't translated to even a decent ERA since 2008; Anibal Sanchez finally put together a very solid full season last year, and could emerge as an excellent number-two starter if his mysterious ability to avoid the home run continues. The most intriguing one, though, and thus my pick for the team's "X Factor," is the one who was the best pitcher in the division two seasons ago: Javy Vazquez.

The path Vazquez's career is awfully interesting, and raises some interesting questions. It's almost certainly more complicated than the usual "guy who can't get it done on the big stage" silliness, but there also may well be a bit more to that silliness than most stat guys want to admit.

For the sabermetrically-minded fan or analyst, it's easy to look at Vazquez and note that with the Yankees in 2010, his fastball was down over two miles an hour on average (from 91.1 to 88.7, per FanGraphs), and conclude that that led to the drop of almost three strikeouts per nine innings (9.77 to 6.92) and the more than doubling of his home run rate (0.82 to 1.83), and that compensating for the loss of velocity led to a more than doubling of his walk rate (1.81 to 3.72), and that these things -- not some fear of New York or pinstripes or something -- caused him to have the worst year of his career in 2010. And you might well be right.

But consider: 2004, his one other year with the Yankees and now the second-worst of his career, paints a surprisingly similar picture. Compared to his 2003 with the Expos, Javy's fastball dropped in average velocity by almost two miles per hour (91.8 to 90.1), his strikeouts dropped by more than two and a half per nine (9.40 to 6.82), with smaller but still significant jumps in his walk and home run rates (2.22 to 2.73 walks per nine and 1.09 to 1.50 homers per nine). The following year he was with the Diamondbacks, and those rate stats didn't quite snap back to their excellent 2003 levels, but each improved on his dreadful 2004, with significant improvements in his walk and strikeout rates.

On one hand, Vazquez's falloff was more pronounced this time than it was in his last tour with the Yankees, and he's pushing 35 now, so we might expect that this one's more likely to be permanent. On the other, though, 2009 was the best year of his career, so maybe the falloff was bigger because the numbers he was faling off from overstate his true talent. 2009 has never been who Vazquez is, but this analysis certainly makes a bounce back to his still-excellent 2005-2008 levels easier to imagine.

So is Javy really just allergic to pinstripes? I still kind of doubt it, but the parallels to 2004 make it seem more plausible than you might think. The Marlins are betting that he is, and that makes him the team's X Factor for 2011.

Diamondbacks X Factor: Justin Upton

By Bill

We're doing a few of these little "X Factor" posts in conjunction with ESPN's season previews, which will run on the big site tomorrow.

"X Factor" isn't really a term I'm comfortable using, and especially not for a team whose fate, like the Diamondbacks', appears to be more or less decided. Last year's Padres showed that just about anything can happen in the NL West, but Arizona is a team that looks very likely to lose 90 or more games, and no one "factor" is going to suddenly turn this mess into a contender. 

That said, the most interesting and volatile piece of the 2011 Diamondbacks is definitely Justin Upton, the still just twenty-three year old former #1 overall pick (who I will always think of as "the Justin Upton" thanks to a now-completely-forgotten-by-everyone-else line from a Keith Law chat two years ago) entering his fourth year as the team's starting right fielder.

I think a lot of people are forgetting about Upton's talent and tremendous potential nowadays. Which you might say is just what always happens: he was the biggest prospect in the game a few years ago, but he's had a couple underwhelming seasons, and now there's Jason Heyward -- whose skills profile as kind of a left-handed, better Upton, at the same position -- and Upton just kind of becomes an afterthought.

The thing that makes it different, though, is that Upton has already had a pretty awesome season, and it was just two seasons ago. The raw numbers are inflated a bit by the park he plays in, but it seems silly to get too particular about a 21 year old who hits .300/.366/.532 with 26 homers and 20 steals in 25 chances. You'd have to figure that someone who did that was destined to be a superstar.

Then, of course, 2010 was a big step back in almost any way. Oddly, his batting average on balls in play stayed almost absurdly high--dropping from .360 to .354--but his power went way down while his strikeouts (which were already something of a problem) went up. He was still a very productive player overall, but .273/.356/.442 with 17 homers is harder to get excited about, especially in that park.

But it's still just one year, he was still just 22, and he still has worlds of talent. The most interesting thing about the D-Backs' season, to me, will be seeing what Upton does. Does he take a huge step forward and continue along the Griffey-esque kind of career path it looked like he might be on a year ago? Does he duplicate his 2009 and merely recapture his star status? Or is who he was in 2010 (and 2008) -- a productive and useful but non-special and ultimately pretty uninteresting corner outfielder -- just who he's going to be now?

Well, we won't know who he is six months from now, but we'll very likely know a lot more then than we do now, and that's your D-Backs' X Factor for 2011.