Showing posts with label Cleveland Indians. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cleveland Indians. Show all posts

Friday, February 24, 2012

How the Indians Lost the 1959 Pennant

By The Common Man

Some of you may have heard that The Common Man is going to be controlling the Cleveland Indians in friend of the blog Jeff Polman’s Strat-o-Matic replay of the 1958 season, in conjunction with his online mystery novel. It should be a lot of fun.

To get ready, The Common Man combed through as much info on the ’58 Tribe as he could and came to the realization that General Manager Frank Lane was an absolute idiot.

You remember Frank Lane, undoubtedly, as “Trader” Lane or “Frantic” Frank. He was an executive who simply couldn’t leave his roster alone, constantly tinkering with it, making huge trades, and generally getting in his own way. In 1958, as usual, he was active. He deal Chico Carrasquel to the A’s for light-hitting shortstop Billy Hunter. He also pulled off a five player deal, sending Roger Maris and some change to the A’s for Vic Power and Woodie Held. It was all largely window dressing, as the Indians were 7.5 games out on June 1 and never got much closer.  But late in August, Lane made another change that, honestly, made no sense.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Tuesday Trade Tree: The Mystery of Mitch Talbot

By The Common Man

Due to his wonky elbow, Mitch Talbot has only had two starts, and has thus not contributed much to the Indians’ suprising success in 2011. But, when healthy, he’s a very usable mid-rotation starter who will easily push Jeannmar Gomez back to the minors or the bullpen, where he’ll do much less damage. Having a healthy Talbot is going to be essential if Cleveland is going to hold on to its early division lead. Talbot is the last in a long line of Indians acquisitions that are left over from the heydays of Alomar, Vizquel, Thome, Nagy and Ramirez. The last vestige of the last Indians dynasty, and hopefully part of the foundation for a new one. A legacy that stretches back for who knows how long, and whose formation is clouded in mystery. Observe:

Monday, April 25, 2011

Power Rankings Explained: American League

As he did last week, The Common Man wants to expand on his comments in ESPN's Power Rankings that came out today.  This week, TCM provided the blurbs for the three AL teams unrepresented in the SweetSpot Network, the White Sox, Indians, and Angels

Monday, March 28, 2011

Indians X-Factor: Matt LaPorta

By The Common Man

We're doing a few of these little "X Factor" posts in conjunction with ESPN's season previews, which will run on the big site tomorrow. Keep an eye out.


It's make-or-break time for Matt LaPorta, the central piece of the CC Sabathia trade two years ago, who showed so much offensive potential in the minors (.310/.400/.548 in 111 games at AAA). Last year was an unmitigated disaster for LaPorta, however, as he hit just .221/.306/.362 in 425 PAs, while mostly playing first base. That wouldn't cut it from a shortstop, but it's untenable from a key offensive position.

The Indians aren't going anywhere in 2011, and are rightly focused on building from within. They had hoped that LaPorta was going to be an important part of that, but it's looking less and less like he's a building block, and more like he's a quadruple-A hitter, a notion that's supported by his horrible .148/.220/.370 Spring line. He's only 26 in 2011, so he may not entirely be done developing. And there's some chance that, even with more than 600 PAs under his belt, he's been the victim of some bad luck. He does have just a .260 career BABIP, which doesn't seem terribly sustainable, though some of that is due to his propensity to hit the ball in the air.

The restoration of the Cleveland Indians was already poised to be a slow process, especially since they have a lack of real boppers in the minors to begin with. LaPorta's development, or lack thereof, in 2011 will dictate not only how the rest of his career will shake out, but how the rebuilding plan will have to adjust to compensate for a zero at a premium offensive spot.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Underrated Is an Understatement for Choo

The Common Man is away on vacation, and I'm swamped at work. Luckily, we've got a guest all lined up for you: Jonathan Mitchell writes all kinds of smart baseball stats-y things at Figure Filbert, and you can follow him on Twitter. Here he writes about one of my favorite players [editor's note: I don't think I underrate him at all, I just still think people underrate Utley that much]. Enjoy!

I love underrated players. They not only make me look good when fantasy baseball rolls around but they make for good topics of discussion.

Shin-Soo Choo is a player that is often considered underrated, if not completely overlooked. Heck, there are probably some people that think he still plays in Seattle or in Korea. Choo’s name only comes up in discussions of underrated players, fantasy baseball drafts, and when the World Baseball Classic is being played. Nobody seems to ever mention Choo in the conversation of best players in the game, but I do.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

When the Knuckleball Goes...

OK, The Common Man will bite. He’s a sucker for when Rob throws out one of his mysteries (first George Strickland, then Ted Abernathy, now this), and yesterday he started wondering about Gene Bearden, a rookie sensation for the Indians in 1948, who won 20 games and quickly faded into obscurity. Rob writes, “Most knuckleball pitchers age well. Bearden peaked as a rookie.” According to the stories passed down by Eddie Robinson and others, Bearden lost his effectiveness when batters began laying off his knuckler, but Rob’s not having it, “By my count (because there's no source for it), Bearden gave up a .245 batting average on balls in play in 1948. That seems like an exceptionally low figure, even for a knuckleball pitcher in 1948…. He was blessed with good luck in that one season.”


So how much was luck and how much was Bearden? Did he really fall off because other players got wise to his knuckler?

Friday, August 13, 2010

Random Minor Leaguer of the Week: Cord Phelps, 2B, CLE

By The Common Man

A new blog means new features (though also the continuation of old ones for those of you who are fans of Beer Leaguers, Nickname Review, and Random Thursdays). And one The Common Man wants to start today is “Random Minor Leaguer of the Week.” Each week, TCM or Bill will choose a minor leaguer to focus on, write up why he interests us, and perhaps even solicit scouting reports and analysis from you readers, since neither of us are scouts or prospect mavens. The first subject is Cord Phelps, a 23 year old 2B in the Cleveland organization, who TCM has been trying to ask the venerable Keith Law about in chats for weeks now.

Phelps was drafted in the 3rd round (107th overall) in 2008 by the Indians out of Stanford University, and has risen quickly through their minor league ranks. Despite this, he did not land on any of the top 100 prospect lists, and doesn’t even show up on anyone’s Top 10 list of Indians prospects.

He has posted strong batting averages and OBP at all of his stops, except for a .261 average in A+ Kinston last year that seems to have been depressed by the environment (the Carolina League hit just .256/.329/.383 as a whole that year). FanGraphs seems to reflect this and gives him a .350 wOBP for the year. He has a healthy walk rate of 12%, which is boosted significantly by his 93 walk performance in 2009.

Despite his success, Phelps’ long term outlook is probably questionable because of a lack of power. Across almost three minor league seasons, Phelps has hit just 13 bombs and has a slugging percentage of .411. Again, some of that is related to his time in Kinston. His non-Kinston SLG is actually a much healthier .453.

At just 23 years old, Phelps has saved his best performance for 2010, particularly in his first exposure to AAA for the Columbus Clippers. In 210 plate appreances, Phelps has hit .333/.407/.522 in a park that has traditionally depressed offense, and has even upped his homer output (he’s hit 5, more than he’s ever hit at any level before this).

Because of this success, and because of the abject failure of Luis Valbuena (.169/.259/.243), Phelps may be working his way into the 2B picture for the Indians going forward. Jason Donald has performed adequately (.259/.318/.400), but is two years older and lacks upside. Asdrubal Cabrera’s production is also down (.269/.326/.347) in an injury plagued year. While it’s tempting for the Indians to demonstrate getting value for the Cliff Lee deal, Phelps looks (from afar) to be a better player for the Tribe going forward. At 23, he’s already ahead of where Donald was at this age in every facet of the game except power.

So here’s where The Common Man opens it up to you, gentle readers. Have any of you seen Phelps play? What are your thoughts? Cleveland fans, is he an upgrade over Donald? How would you rank Phelps, Donald, Valbuena, and Cabrera? Does he deserve to be in the 2B conversation for 2011?

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Random Thursday: 1995 American League Central

Oh Thursdays, your randomness is so beguiling. Today, The Common Man will give in to you. And so, using BR.com’s “random” feature, TCM jumps from the 1921 batting register that got us talking about Austin McHenry to the 1995 American League Standings, where TCM was staring right at the mighty Indians of the mid-nineties, at the height of their power, in the only season in which they won 100 games and reached the World Series.

Sitting atop the American League Central with a 100-44 record, these Indians stand out like a sore thumb both because of their excellent performance and the terribleness of the rest of the division, all of whom finished below .500. The Indians lorded over their division, beating up in particular on the second place Royals, against whom they finished 11-1. Cleveland also won double digit games against the Orioles, Tigers, and Blue Jays, and skunked the A’s 7-0. They only were below .500 against the Angels, but were limited to just 5 games against the Halos because of the strike. When the abbreviated regular season ended, the Indians were 30 games up on their nearest rival, the largest lead any team has ever had.

That led, of course, is due as much to the Indians’ success as it is to the failure of everyone else in the division. Cleveland had become a player development machine, churning out prospects like Carlos Baerga, Jim Thome, Albert Belle, Sandy Alomar, Charles Nagy, Chad Ogea, and Julian Tavarez, and Manny Ramirez. Jeromy Burnitz and Brian Giles were buried at AAA. They acquired other teams’ projects on the cheap, like Paul Sorrento of the Twins, Omar Vizquel of the Mariners, Jose Mesa of the Orioles, and Kenny Lofton of the Astros, and made them into rousing successes. And they augmented their club with strong veterans, such as Eddie Murray, Dennis Martinez, Orel Hershiser, and Tony Pena (though the less said about Dave Winfield, the better). This team was loaded, and from top to bottom may have been one of the most complete offensive teams of all time.

Meanwhile, the Royals thought they were still playing in 1987, with Vince Coleman, Greg Gagne, Wally Joyner, and Gary Gaetti in the lineup. Gaetti slugged 35 homers in a huge comeback year, but no one else on the team hit more than 14. Designated hitter and 1994 Rookie of the Year Bob Hamlin went from a 146 OPS+ to a 53. The offense finished dead last in the American League in runs per game. They would get worse and worse as the ‘90s ground on, wasting the prime years of Kevin Appier paying exorbitantly for Jeff King, Jose Offerman, Jay Bell, Bip Roberts, and Tom Goodwin.

The White Sox were a year removed from a run of success at or near the top of the AL Central and West under Jeff Torborg and Gene Lamont, and were in 1st place when the ’94 seasons was stopped. So they must have had high hopes coming out of the strike. Alas, a number of players took steps back. Frank Thomas’s OPS+ fell back from 211(!) to 179, because no one can maintain a .487 OBP and a .729 SLG from year to year. Ron Karkovice began to fall back. Ozzie Guillen went from terrible (71 OPS+) to abysmal (56). The DH spot was downgraded from Julio Franco (136 OPS+) to a rotating cast that had a 109 OPS+. Thomas was part of this group, but that moved Dave Martinez to 1B. But a lot of the damage came from the pitching staff, where Jack McDowell was sent to the Yankees and not adequately replaced (McDowell’s spot was filled by a rotating cast of Brian Keyser, Dave Righetti, Mike Sirotka, Luis Andujar, James Baldwin, and Mike Bertotti. Jason Bere also took a huge step back, foretelling the shoulder problems that would eventually derail his promising career. After two straight years with 12 wins, and a combined ERA of 3.64, Bere went 8-15 with a 7.19 ERA. He would combine to make 11 starts over the next two seasons with a 6.75 ERA. And Chicago’s relievers went from having a 4.10 ERA to a 4.85. The club would bounce back in ’96, and hover around .500 before recovering its swagger under Jerry Manuel.

The Brewers should have been essentially a .500 ballclub, as they were outscored by just 7 runs. But playing in an extreme hitters’ park (County Stadium’s one-year Park Factor was 109) masked a team with some troubling offensive problems. John Jaha and BJ Surhoff provided above average production, but played premium offensive positions. Kevin Seitzer and Jeff Cirillo also provided acceptable offense, and some positional flexibility. But none of the other Milwaukee hitters managed more than 1.5 WAR, according to BR.com. Greg Vaughn, who led the team with a $4.9 million salary, was limited to DH for the year and actually finished below replacement level. Two years later, the Brewers moved out of the American League altogether.

Finally, the Minnesota Twins were enjoying the depths of their decade of cheapness and obscurity. Rather than wait out the strike, Shane Mack took off for Japan and was replaced by Rookie of the Year Marty Cordova. Kent Hrbek decided he didn’t want to stay in shape anymore (or the shape he had chosen to stay in was more circular than is optimal for a ballplayer) and retired, replaced on the field not by heir apparent David McCarty (the 3rd overall pick in 1991), but by something called Scott Stahoviak. McCarty fell out of favor with Tom Kelly and was dealt to the Reds for a non-prospect. Kirby Puckett had been shifted to RF and was replaced by Rich Becker, and would end his career later that season after being hit in the face by a Dennis Martinez fastball.

But the pitching. Oh God, the pitching. Twenty-two year old rookie Brad Radke led the staff with 181 innings and a 5.32 ERA. Kevin Tapani made 20 starts before mercifully being traded to the Dodgers for Ron Coomer and players who were inexplicably more terrible than Ron Coomer. Scott Erickson sulked through 15 games (with a 5.95 ERA) before he was traded to the Orioles (where he would magically go 9-4 with a 3.89 ERA the rest of the year) for Scott Klingenbeck.and Kimera Bartee. Rick Aguilera was dealt to Boston for Frankie Rodriguez because it was clear the team didn’t need anyone special to close games. Aside from Radke and Tapani, by the way, no one on the club pitched more than 100 innings. Mike Trombley made 28 starts, but only had 97 IP, and with a 5.62 ERA, it’s good he didn’t hang around. Rodriguez’s ERA was 5.38. Jose Parra, acquired for Tapani, had a 7.59 ERA. Failed prospect Pat Mahomes finished the year with a 6.37 ERA in 94 innings. Eddie Guardado’s ERA was 5.12. Klingenbeck posted an 8.57 mark. Greg Harris allowed 35 runs in 32 innings, and LaTroy Hawkins allowed 29 in 27. Among players with more than 30 IP, only Rich Robertson and Mark Guthrie (who was traded with Tapani) posted a mark better than the league average. It was, in a word, excrutiating. The Twins allowed 6.2 runs per game in 1995, the first of just four teams since 1940 that have allowed more than 6 runs per game (the others being the ’96 Tigers, ’99 Rockies, and (whatta you know) the ’94 Twins).

And so, the Indians were allowed to run roughshod over the AL Central, dominating it like no other division or league has been dominated before. The ’95 Indians made a mockery of competitive balance, and stand as a strong reminder of what a smart front office can do: run circles around bad organizations.