You Have to Earn the "D": How the Brewers' Atrocious 'efense Affects Their Mediocre Pitching

In this week’s ESPN Power Rankings, SweetSpot and Fangraphs blogger Jack Moore (who’s a really nice guy, and is really too smart to be only 20 years old. It’s infuriating, actually) points out that the BrewCrew rank dead last in defensive efficiency in baseball. Throughout the year, fans and media types in Wisconsin have been concerned about the team’s pitching staff, and the team’s apparent failure to identify decent starters to staff the rotation. But, as Jack and TCM discussed in a Twitter exchange, the team’s horrendous defense has significantly altered the perception of how that staff is doing. Just how much? Let’s look deeper.

Ignoring the Island

The news is semi-official, Nationals' special assistant to the GM Jose Rijo is out and the team's Dominican program is going to be entirely revamped in light of the Esmailyn Gonzalez/Carlos Daniel Alvarez Lugo scandal that cost the Nats $1.4 million. Certainly this is the end of the road for Rijo, and perhaps (hopefully?) for Jim Bowden as well.

But buried deep within this ESPN article is this other little nugget: "The Milwaukee Brewers are the only organization without a Dominican academy."

What does this mean, both in philosophical and practical terms for the Brew Crew? First, it means that they are less likely to be embroiled in scandals like the Nats, and other teams, have. By refusing to pay out large bonuses to players with questionable backgrounds (not that they are questionable people, just that their identities invariably have to be suspected and vetted). It minimizes their risk, which is terribly important for a team in the smallest media market in the country. Frankly, the Brewers can't afford to throw away $1.4 million.

It also means that they are able to focus their attention heavily elsewhere. A quick perusal of their minor league system shows a heavy Venezuelan influence (including top prospect Alcides Escobar), suggesting that they are dedicated to mining Latin America for talent, just not the D.R.


But practically, their decision seems to leave their cupboard almost entirely bare of good young Dominican players. Of their top 10 prospects (as rated by Baseball America), only Angel Solome is from the Dominican, but he went to high school in the U.S. and was drafted in the 5th round. Carlos Villanueva's the only other Dominican on the 40 man roster, and he was originally signed by the Giants and acquired via trade. John Sickels rates Wily Peralta as the team's #12 prospect, and describes him as "A high upside arm, but a long way from the majors."

At this point, before minor league rosters are set, it's hard to determine with any accuracy just how out of step the Brewers' system is with the rest of the league. What is the proportion of Dominican players in the Brewers' organization vs. the rest of the league, and what is the proportion of Latin players? And it will be interesting to see just what kind of effect this organizational strategy has on their major league club going forward. The Brewers seem to have survived by drafting well (Fielder, Hardy, Hart, Braun, Gallardo, Hall, Sheets, and Parra were all draft choices), but as their success has led to lower picks, it will be interesting to see if that run of success can continue without additional support from Latin America (thusfar, only two of the players on their 40 man roster were signed as amateur free agents).

The Common Man isn't quick to condemn the Brew Crew for their novel approach. Given that other teams undoubtedly have more money to dole out to the elite prospects (like Esmailyn Gonzalez, eh?), choosing not to compete there and to corner markets elsewhere seems like a sound strategy. And as more teams expand further into Venezuela (or Hugo Chavez makes it prohibitively difficult to operate there), it will be fun to see where the next great frontier is that they can exploit? What say you? Where should the Brewers go next?

Beaconing Hope

Oh man, something has been tearing through The Common Family this week. Fevers have spiked. Coughs have lingered. Fluids have projected. It has not been fun. And so, The Common Man spent a great deal of time nursing The Boy back to health, resting on the couch watching bad movies, and cuddling with The Uncommon Wife (yes, men cuddle) while watching DVDs in bed. While great for family bonding, it has been detrimental to actual productivity, so The Common Man will do his best to make up for lost time. Fortunately, he has lots to talk about.

For instance, in the face of The Common Man's recent shivering spell on the sofa, he's grown more and more impressed with the performance of the Milwaukee Brewers' ace, CC Sabathia. Sabathia, famously acquired by the Brewers in a midseason deal, has been unstoppable thusfar in a Milwaukee uniform. In just 11 starts, he has gone 9-0 with a 1.43 ERA. He's completed more than half his starts and has three shutouts in the process, and has struck out almost a batter an inning while allowing just one runner per inning. In his previous start, he threw a one-hitter against the Pittsburgh Pirates, striking out 11.



Yet, Sabathia's not just notable for his excellence. Indeed, his toughness and durability have caused controversy in recent weeks. Since joining the Brewers, Sabathia has been worked hard by manager Ned Yost, averaging 111.6 pitches per start including a 130 pitch complete game when his team was up by six runs. While this is an indefensible strategy for his manager (especially if Sabathia appears worn down in the postseason), it's a remarkable accomplishment for Sabathia. For the year, he is leading the majors in pitches/start, when the league median is close to 93. That means that, on average, Sabathia is giving his team a full inning more of (an incredibly high level of) production than the typical major league starter.

And this is a risky strategy, both for the Brewers and for Sabathia. Current research indicates, according to a 2004 article by Baseball Prospectus's Rany Jazayerli, "1. While pitching is an inherently unnatural motion, throwing a pitch does not necessarily do permanent damage to a pitcher's arm. It's only when fatigue sets in (and a pitcher's mechanics start to waver) that continued pitching can result in irreversible injury. 2. There is a certain number of pitches that a pitcher can throw before that fatigue sets in. 3. Once a pitcher is fatigued, each additional pitch causes more damage, and results in more additional fatigue, than the pitch before." And so, as Sabathia racks up start after start of high pitch counts, his likelihood of suffering a season ending, or even a catastrophic, arm injury exponentially increases.

There is rampant speculation that the Brewers, realizing that they are unlikely to sign Sabathia after the season (he'll be a free agent) have decided to ignore this risk for this year and run him into the ground. Yost has contradicted this assertion, saying, "I respect him as a player. I respect him as a person. He's got a family. I know how this business works. He has to provide for his family. I would never do anything that would take away from that ability. I just couldn't live with myself." Regardless of whether they are knowingly putting Sabathia's health in jeopardy, the Brewers' strategy seems unwise both for the rest of this season and for their pitcher's future.

For his part, however, Sabathia has acted like a shining beacon of manhood; he has taken the abuse his manager has dished out with no complaint, indeed with eagerness to take the ball and dominate his opposition. With the looming prospect of making $100 million, The Common Man could understand if Sabathia wanted to baby his golden left arm, ensuring his family's prosperity for generations to come. But his continued enthusiasm for taking the ball in the face of risk and his continued excellence singles him out as The Common Man's Weekly Beacon of Manhood (a new feature here). You can bet that CC Sabathia wouldn't lay on the couch and watch The Condemned if he had a game to pitch. Shame on The Common Man.