The Eight Worst World Series Winners in History

By Bill


It's kind of easy to forget, considering how well they've played through the playoffs, about that whole amazing run that got the Cardinals to where they are right now, two home wins away from winning the World Series. For most of the year, the Cards were just about an average team (and in a pretty bad division), and ended with just 90 wins even after that great final stretch. Should they go on to win the Series, they'll be just the fourth team since the 162-game schedule was put in place in 1961, and the seventh ever (not counting seasons shortened by war or a strike), to have won the championship with as few as ninety wins.

Below is my own completely unscientific and highly subjective ranking of the eight "worst" teams ever to win it all. (I have no idea why it's eight: I guess that's just how many teams there were that I felt like writing about. Or, perhaps, because it's Nick Punto's uniform number. Either way.) Keep in mind that this isn't really intended as a slight, and any championship season is a great championship season: it happens that my favorite single-year team of my lifetime is on this list. Another thing is that, as you might imagine, relatively recent teams dominate the list: it's just a lot easier for a bad team to make it to, and therefore win, the Series if you don't actually need to be the best team in your whole league to qualify.

Certified Public Accountancy

By The Common Man

Last night, as Jason Wojciechowski pointed out, Albert Pujols made an incredibly poor defensive play that wound up costing the Cardinals what turned out to be the winning run. Misjudging a poor throw from John Jay, Pujols reacted late and allowed the ball to bounce off his glove rather than cutting the ball off cleanly and holding Elvis Andrus at first base.

After the game, as we learned this morning, Pujols was nowhere to be found in the locker room. Similarly, Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman were absent as well. Jeff Passan complained that Pujols’ decision to leave early showed “zero leadership” (which seems unfair, he could have led the other veterans out). Jon Paul Morosi similarly wrote, “The lack of accountability was inexcusable from a man who is frequently described as a good teammate — and will soon want to be paid like the greatest player in the game.”

World Series Prediction: A Nickname Face-Off

Once upon a time, The Common Man committed to objectively reviewing and grading all 30 of the nicknames of baseball's 30 teams.  He got eight done.  While he is committed to finishing the list this offseason, The Common Man did happen to review the nicknames for both Texas and St. Louis, and on the basis of those reviews, he is confident he can predict the outcome of the 2011 World Series. How will it go when the Rangers meet the Cardinals?  Re-printed below are TCM's nickname reviews for each squad.  Predictions at the end.

Fifteen Years of "Tainted" Titles?

By The Common Man

Earlier today, The Common Man had an interesting exchange with former reliever Steve Karsay on Twitter that got his mind working. Karsay was having a conversation with a pretty obnoxious Red Sox fan, when he said, “your rings are tainted with guys like Manny who used steroids.” That’s an interesting word, “tainted.” Even though Manny wasn’t caught using banned substances until 2009, Karsay makes the (understandable) leap to say that the Sox’s 2004 and 2007 titles were not won fairly. It’s a relatively fair point, as no one really thinks Manny began using in 2009, and the Sox also had other players suspected, accused, or suspended for use, including David Ortiz, JC Romero, Eric Gagne, Bronson Arroyo, and Brendan Donnelly.


But this left TCM wondering, are there any teams that we can claim won their titles fairly over the past 15 years? How wide-spread was the problem? Is everyone tainted? Using the Mitchell Report, Jose Canseco’s books, players MLB has suspended for banned substance use, and players who have admitted their use publically, TCM has done some digging to find out how many World Series Championships have been tainted by PEDs, using the definition laid out by Karsay (who, by the way, was incredibly engaged, seems like a good dude, passionately hates PEDs, and should have more followers).

Below, is a table, showing all the alleged users of Performance Enhancing Drugs that were on the rosters of World Championship teams (note, there are a couple more added in the comments section). These players presumably made some contribution to the team’s overall success and have therefore tainted their team’s success.

How do you solve a problem like a 3-1 deficit in the World Series?

By The Common Man

So it's not a catchy title.  TCM isn't exactly Rogers and Hammerstein.

The Rangers do, indeed, look royally screwed in this World Series, as friend of the blog, Craig Calcaterra points out this morning. So much so that you could be tempted to turn away from Game 5 tonight (and 6 and 7 later this week). Indeed, Craig points that just five teams have come back from a 3-1 deficit in the World Series, in 1925, 1958, 1968, 1979, and 1985, and finds not a lot of hope for the Rangers:

The 1925 and 1958 comebacks aren’t all that instructive here, because it really was a different game then. After all, no Rangers pitcher is going to make two starts in the final three games of this one, not even for all the Burma Shave in the world. 1985 was rather freaky as well, as the Cardinals got boned on the Denkinger call.

That leaves the Rangers with the example of the 1968 Tigers and the 1979 Pirates. Can Colby Lewis channel his inner Mickey Lolich? Will Andres Torres badly misplay a ball in center like Curt Flood? Are the Rangers Fam-i-ly like those Willie Stargell Pirates were? I don’t think it would be right to say there was no chance at all, but boy howdy, the odds are certainly against them.

But how steep are those odds exactly, and (as quickly as Craig dismisses them) what if anything do these prior series really have to teach us?

Get Your Best and Most Complete World Series Preview Here

The best and most complete World Series podcast you're going to hear is below the jump.  Chris Quick of Bay City Ball and Josh Garoon of Baseball Time in Arlington (fellow SweetSpotters, both) joined The Common Man, Bill, and Lar of Wezenball.com to talk about the Giants and Rangers respectively. 

All your questions will be answered: 
What don't you know about the Rangers and the Giants, but should? 
Why will the Giants win? 
Why will the Rangers prevail? 
What scares Giants and Rangers bloggers about their opponents?
Where in the hell did Brian Wilson's beard come from (seriously, the whole podcast is terrific, but if nothing else just listen from 47:45 on)? 

Josh and Chris are both incredibly smart guys and were kind enough to offer their enthusiasm and considerable knowledge to make this our best podcast yet.  Thanks to both of them.

Designated Hand-Wringing

Dave Cameron is worried about the Giants’ DH options in Games 3-5 of the World Series: “No matter what way they go, it won’t be a great option, and the Giants will be at a disadvantage in the AL park.” Rob Neyer tends to agree, calling it “just another reason to pick the Rangers.”

Sorry, but The Common Man isn’t going to start wringing his hands over the Giants’ supposed lack of a Designated Hitter in the World Series. For one thing, the pundits (TCM included) have a terrible track record over the last couple weeks. For another, it’s for three games, max. For a third this advantage is partially cancelled out by the Rangers using Vlad Guerrero in the field in San Francisco, or losing his bat to the bench entirely.

And for a fourth, if he’s willing, Pat Burrell is perfectly capable of putting on his big boy pants and being a DH for two or three days. But wait, you say, who will play LF in his absence?

Good news, Giants fans, that 5 year $60 million dollar contract Brian Sabean gave to Aaron Rowand can finally pay off. Rowand, you’ll tell The Common Man, was absolutely terrible this year, and TCM will tell you that you’re absolutely right. He was terrible. But why was he terrible?

Rowand’s .263 BABIP is ridiculously low, and something that, assuming Rowand is healthy, is masking how effective he can be in the upcoming series. And Rowand is a plus defender in CF, which would allow the Giants to move Andres Torres to LF, simultaneously improving their outfield defense (indeed, all three outfielders would be adequate CFers) and giving Torres less ground to cover if his hip and groin are limiting his movement. Indeed, Rowand is likely a better option now than Jose Guillen, and is certainly a better plan than starting Travis Ishikawa against a lefty.

And if Tommy Hunter does start Game 4 for the Rangers, look for Ishikawa to take over at 1B, while Aubrey Huff moves to the DH spot. Ishikawa can’t touch a lefty, but is relatively competent (768 OPS in ’10, 749 career) against righties, and is a slick fielder at the bag.

Problem solved. Now, let’s play some ball so we can stop worrying about these little details.

A Super World Series

What a game, huh? The Common Man watched the game with a beer in hand, The Boy at his side, and The Uncommon Wife safely tucked away at another house watching reruns of Absolutely Fabulous. Aside from a strange call from The Uncommon Wife midway through the 2nd quarter (in which she asked The Common Man to come pick her up…yeah, that was really going to happen…then again, TCM hopes she gets home before breakfast), the manliness was in full effect. Pretzels were dipped in mustard. Hoppy beer was consumed. Pizza was made. And, of course, football was on the TV for the last time until September.


Fig. 1 The Common Man's ready for some football.

Fortunately, the game proved to be the best played Super Bowl The Common Man can remember watching. It was largely devoid of mistakes (except Peyton’s big pick) and well-executed by both squads. It was exciting and close the whole way. It was a fitting way to end the 2009-2010 NFL schedule, and the New Orleans win was the only thing soothing TCM’s bitterness over his Vikings’ horrifying loss two weeks ago. So the game went as well as could be expected.

As the game wore on, however, The Common Man began wondering whether there might be a natural parallel between today’s game and the far grander spectacle, the World Series. There have been 106 World Series thusfar, surely one would prove analogous, and put this Super Bowl in its proper perspective. First, because of how close the game was until the very end, and the back and forth nature of the contest, we need a series that went seven games (or eight or nine). That limits our pool to 38 possibilities. We also need a series where the losing team jumped out to an early lead. Certainly, the Colts’ 10 point lead doesn’t seem like much until we remember that only one other team had ever come back from that deficit in the past. Essentially, the Colts jumped out to a 2-0 lead before the Saints got going. Ideally, the winning team would be an underdog, and even more ideally, they would have a similar history as New Orleans (struggles, embarrassment, and eventual triumph that everyone feels good about).

If we use that as our criteria, really, the only real answer is that Super Bowl XLIV is the 1955 World Series. Going into the ’55 series, the Dodgers had never won a World Championship. Despite recent success, they were far more recognizable as Dem Bums than as anything positive. While the Colts’ success does not rival the Yankees extended run of excellence going into ’55, their recent history has been impeccable. With Peyton Manning at the helm, the Colts won the most games of the 00s, were a perennial playoff team, and won a Super Bowl.

Like the Saints, the Dodgers quickly went down to the powerhouse Yankees, two games to nothing. In Game 1, Yankees 1B Joe Collins slugged two homers off of Don Newcombe to lead the Bombers to a one game advantage. Game Two featured a five-hitter by Tommy Byrne and a four-run rally in the 4th inning that held up. Over the final four frames, Byrne got stronger, never allowing a runner past first base. In another eerie parallel to last night’s game, one of the Yanks’ great stars was battling injuries in ’55. Mickey Mantle missed the first two games with a leg injury, but that hardly seemed to affect the club. At the end of the first quarter, the Colts led 10-0 in spite of Dwight Freeney’s limited contributions.


Fig. 2 Ow.

But things turned quickly in Game 3 for the Dodgers. In the first inning, Roy Campanella homered off of Bob Turley to give the Dodgers a 2-0 lead. Like Freeney ‘s sack in the 2nd quarter last night, Mickey tried to limit the damage, hitting a solo shot to lead off the 2nd. However, a single, HBP, a bunt single, and two walks chased Turley the next inning and gave the Dodgers a lead they would never relinquish. Johnny Podres pitched will for Brooklyn, tossing a complete game.

Game 4 was a slugfest, as both Carl Erskine and Don Larsen were chased early. Mantle continued to play but was clearly hobbled, going 1 for 5 with a single and moving to RF. The game turned in the 4th inning, when Roy Campanella and Gil Hodges each homered to turn a 1-3 deficit into a 4-3 lead. The next inning, Larsen walked Junior Gilliam and Pee Wee Reese singled off of Johnny Kucks to lead off the inning. Duke Snider followed with a three-run homer to break the game open. The series was tied at 2-2. Last night’s Super Bowl went into halftime with the Colts up 10-6, but given how thoroughly their offense had been shut down in the 2nd quarter, and the Saints’ last second field goal to tighten the game up, it’s hard to argue that the momentum seemed to have swung in the Saints’ favor, making it close to a draw. And given New Orleans’ brazen recovery of an onside kick to start the 3rd quarter, 2-2 seems about right.

But, of course, neither the Series nor the Super Bowl ended there. Just as the Saints would march down and score on a 16-yard strike from Brees to Pierre Thomas to take a 13-10 lead, the Dodgers also won Game 5 to take a slight edge. Duke Snider launched two solo homers off of Bob Grim, and Sandy Amoros added a two-run shot to lead Brooklyn, who got serviceable performances out of rookie Roger Craig and ace reliever Clem Labine to hold the Bombers in check. Mantle, like Freeney, stopped being a factor at this point, and was not able to play.

But like Peyton Manning, the Yankees could not be kept down for long. Game Six saw Whitey Ford absolutely handcuff the Dodgers, pitching a complete game four-hitter, with 8 strikeouts. Rookie Karl Spooner, who had battled arm trouble all year, lasted a third of an inning before being yanked, and was on the hook for 3 hits (one of which was a three-run Bill Skowron homer), two walks and five runs. Russ Meyer and Ed Roebuck held New York in check for the rest of the game, providing 8.2 innings of scoreless relief, but the damage was done. At the end of the third quarter, the game was 17-16 Indianapolis, Peyton and Joseph Addai had conspired to give the Colts momentum, and the game was anyone’s to win.

Like the Saints, the Dodgers would score twice in their fourth quarter. Gil Hodges singled with two outs off of Tommy Byrne in the top of the 4th to drive in Campanella, and then lofted a sacrifice fly in the 6th to drive in Reese. Johnny Podres made it stick, pitching a shutout over the bombers. Like Tracy Porter, Sandy Amoros made a game-saving play, turning what would have been a Yogi Berra double down the leftfield line into a double play to end a budding rally.


Fig. 3 Good defense.

Podres faced more trouble in the eighth. Like Manning driving down the field in the final two minutes, the Yankees put two on with one out, but Podres made Berra pop out to right and struck out Hank Bauer to end the threat and start the party.

Ultimately, The Common Man is sure that the celebration in Brooklyn, while just as passionate, was less wild than the pandemonium in the French Quarter last night.


Fig. 4 Alas, there was no room for the car and its lovable hooligans on Bourbon Street

However, otherwise, these two contests seem to match up well, and Super Bowl XLIV may go down as just as much a classic of its game as Brooklyn’s only World Series triumph.

Phinally Phinished

The Common Man is man enough to admit when he's wrong (though not man enough to admit when he's lost driving through rural northern Wisconsin at 10:30 at night). So he would like to heartily congratulate the Philadelphia Phillies and their fans in the wake of their stunningly decisive World Series Championship over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Phillies were calm and commanding throughout the series, while the Rays looked young, panicky, and over-eager. Like The Common Man's cat, the Phillies played with their mouse, letting it stay in each game, convincing it they could escape, only to make them whiff on another changeupon the outside corner.

For the record, The Common Man's predictions, other than the onewhere he chose the winner, look pretty good. The running game was about equal, with both teams stealing 7 bases, getting caught once, and picked off once. Jamie Moyer pitched a solid ball game. Hamels won both his starts. And Ryan Howard hit .286/.375/.762 with 3 homers and 6 RBI.

Sadly, the Series was not a rousing success. It was sloppy, seemed one-sided despite 4 close games out of 5, sported terrible umpiring, and had a debacle of a game 5, which was first played in a monsoon and then suspended for 48 hours. Pundits have gone over the top, however, in their condemnation of it. Dean of baseball reporters, Peter Gammons posited that, "There are a lot of questions that will be weighed after this, the worst World Series in memory" and ESPN touted it as the "worst ever."

Frankly, that's ridiculous. Maybe it was a little sloppy and one-sided (11 errors in 5 games, 2 pick offs, baserunning mistakes). In 2007, the Red Sox swept the Rockies and outscored them 29-10; there was virtually no drama in that series. In 2006, the 82-80 Cardinals beat the Tigers in five games, in a series featured 12 errors. The Red Sox swept the Cardinals in 2004 despite committing 8 errors in the first 2 games. In fact, the losing team hasn't won 2 games in a World Series since 2003. We've been seeing one-sided series for half a decade now, many of them sloppy. And other World Series have been halted in the middle. Famously, the 1989 Series was postponed for a week following the San Francisco earthquake. And several other games have either been rained out or suspended.

Frankly, the only criteria that should matter for a World Series are the drama it produces and the quality of the baseball played. In that regard, the 2008 World Series did ok. Not great, but ok. Though he's sure everyone in Philly enjoyed it immensely.


And one programming note: The Common Man realizes that things have been very sports-heavy around here lately. He's looking forward to once again branching out a little starting tomorrow.

Rainy Days and Mondays...

Once again, the World Series is delayed by rain. This time around, they got the game going but were forced to suspend it in the 6th because, for some reason, the umpires didn't want to use scuba gear to keep going. And the home plate ump left his prescription goggles at home (ohhh, snap!). So the game has been suspended. This gives the Tampa Bay Rays a one-day reprieve, and The Common Man something to watch tomorrow afternoon when he should really be working.

What struck The Common Man the most, as he watched the Philadelphia's infield turn into a Slip and Slide track, was how dirty B.J. Upton's uniform got in the top of the 6th. Indeed, when water hits the clay and dirt of the infield, the result is a cement-ish, paint-like goop that clings to any surface. And when Upton skidded into second-base like he was waterskiing, his pants ended up caked with bright brown ick.

It's not every baseball fan that's going to notice these things, but The Common Man was fortunate to spend two summers as a clubhouse manager for a minor league team. All The Common Man could think when he saw Upton's pants was "that's gonna be damn near impossible to get out." It's a strange perspective to have as a sports fan, The Common Man thinks, to allow laundry analysis to shape one's thoughts and impressions of historic action on the field of play.

Yet, this is what being a clubhouse manager hath wrought. The Common Man watches Upton slide and flashes back to early mornings on the day after a road trip and finding bags and bags of muddy, damp, smelly uniforms, taken off the team bus and dumped unceremoniously on the floor. Wondering just how many times he'd have to run them through the inadequate washing-machine to get them the gleaming white or stark gray that The Common Man's bosses expected. Often, he'd be at it for 4-5 hours before all the laundry was done on those days, taking a brush to the stains and scrubbing with all his might.


It was terribly frustrating, difficult work. But frankly, The Common Man enjoyed it. The job (even the laundry aspect) deepened his love, appreciation, and knowledge of the game and made him even more eager to stay up until 1 AM, watching a game end. And it helped him understand the amazingly complex and substantial network of people who support ballplayers and who never get noticed. So tonight, The Common Man salutes those real men who don't mind washing a bunch of jocks jocks, who make and lay out a banquet both before and after each game, who clean and shine every damn shoe. Here's to you boys, though tonight The Common Man is glad that, he won't be the one up until 1 AM making sure Upton's pants are ready to go tomorrow.

The Match Game

Last night, the Phillies and Rays proved that, even if the Yankees or Red Sox don't make the World Series, good baseball trumps stupid media-generated storylines. In a tight and thrilling 3-2 win, the Phillies took a big step toward upsetting the young and talented Rays, behind the strong left arm of Cole Hamels and the powerful bat of Chase Utley.

So what's changed? Really not much. Hamels still needs to win his next start, because Myers/Moyer/Blanton are not going to win 3 of their 5 starts. This is where, as The Founding Father pointed out last night, Ryan Howard needs to start beating up on the Rays' right handed starters, and stop flailing at breaking balls in the dirt.

With that in mind, The Common Man wants to take a look at some of the other matchups that will prove important to watch in the next 3-6 games:

1) Dioneer Navarro vs. Phillies, Carlos Ruiz vs. Rays

As you saw last night, both the Rays and Phillies like to run and are generally successful. The Phillies stole 136 bases during the regular season and were only caught 25 times (47-3 for Jimmy Rollins alone, and 20-1 for Jayson Werth). That was good for 3rd in the NL, and only 5 off the leaders, and their stealing percentage was by far the best in the league. The Rays led the AL with 142 SB (including 44 by CF BJ Upton), but with a far lower success rate. It will be imperative for these catchers to limit the running game as much as possible, particularly in games like last night's, where one run's importance is magnified so greatly. Navarro threw out 38% of basestealers this year, and Ruiz threw out 25%.

2) Jaimie Moyer vs. Father Time

Jaimie Moyer is something of a marvel. At 45 years old, easily the oldest player in the majors, he's enjoying his best season since 2003. He has lasted 22 seasons in the bigs, almost all of them as a soft-tossing, control artist who has succeeded by upsetting hitters' timing and being left-handed. Despite not really establishing himself until he was 30 (including spending all of 1992, his age 29 season, in the minors), Moyer has won 246 games, been an all star, and pitched in four postseasons. That said, it was clear against the Dodgers that Moyer didn't have an answer for good right-handed hitters. Given BJ Upton's tremendous postseason, Jason Bartlett's proclivity for hitting lefties (.379/.411/.508), and Evan Longoria's all around awesomeness, there a good chance that Moyer's pitched his last effective game of 2008. And at 45, there's a good chance that Moyer's pitched his last extended stretch of effective baseball. And that's a shame, because he's had a pretty awesome career.

3) Phillies history vs. Rays history

Even though The Common Man doesn't really think that previous incarnations of the Phillies and Rays will have any bearing on this series, it's worht noting that these are two of the losingest sports franchises in the history of professional sports. The Phillies have been around since 1883 and have won exactly ONE league championship (there was no World Series before 1903). Their all-time record is 8945-10,099. They are the only franchise ever with 10,000 losses. The Rays, on the other hand, have a 751-1037 record in just 11 seasons. Their winning percentage is an abysmal .420. This is not only the first year they've made the postseason, but the first year they've finished above .500, and the first year they haven't lost at least 90 games. If there is some way for both teams to lose this World Series, The Common Man is confident it will happen.

4) Brett Myers vs. Willy Aybar

If Aybar starts at DH tonight for the Rays, and judging by how well he's been hitting that's a distinct possibility, you can call this the Domestic Disturbance Dustup. Aybar, after a disappointing 2007 that saw him check into rehab for a substance abuse problem, started 2008 off in a big way by assaulting his wife in the Dominican Republic. Afraid that being jailed for three months would be detrimental to the family, Aybar's wife had the charges dropped and Aybar was free to come back to the Rays and deliver post-season heroics and have everyone in the mainstream news forget that he's a wife-beater. Likewise, Phillies starter Brett Myers is a mouth-breathing, raging, wife-beating a-hole who deserves to be shoveling manure in whatever hole he crawled out of rather than pitching in a World Series. Myers was arrested in 2006, in Boston, for hitting his wife in the face out in public on the street. God knows what he does in private. Myers was allowed to pitch the next day by the Phillies (if The Common Man remembers correctly, on national TV). Following the game, according to ESPN, Myers said was not especially contrite, saying, "I'm sorry it had to get public, that's it. Of course, it's embarrassing." Myers, by the way, is 6'4", 215-230 lbs. His wife is not. The Common Man doesn't wish ill on many people, but if it were possible for both of these men to get tangled up along the first baseline and each tear an achilles, he'd be for it.

5) TV Ratings vs. Good baseball

Look, the TV ratings are going to be lower for this World Series than last year's. That's just the way it goes. Fewer people live in Tampa and Philly than in Boston and Denver. But, if the teams play well and the games are close, series like this have the ability to create more fans for major league baseball than another year with the Sox or Yankees in the series. Indeed, thinking back to the Twins' first championship in 1987, and how that affected The Common Man's rooting interests, it's clear that he would not be as obsessed with the game today than he would have been if the Twins stayed also-rans for so many of his formative years. So think of all the kids in Philly and Tampa today who are getting to enjoy and be motivated by baseball for the first time. And think about how these kids are going to grow up to be baseball nuts in 2020. And think about the kids in Chicago or St. Louis or rural Arkansas that get to see players like Carl Crawford, Jimmy Rollins, Evan Longoria, Chase Utley, and even Jaimie Moyer and see their futures. The Common Man thinks that this World Series can and will do more for baseball in the long-term than any since, say, 2001.

World Series Preview

Since The Common Man has split the day chasing The Boy and worshipping at the alter of the porcelyn god, he has not had a chance to write the massive, detailed, funny, insightful, and moving World Series Preview he had planned. He'll try to get to that tomorrow morning, assuming he hasn't flushed away all his internal organs by then, and have a regular post up in the afternoon as well.

But since the series is about to start, here's The Common Man's prediction snapshot for the 103rd World Series.

1) Rays win in 6. Shysterball points out

"I think prognosticators do that because if they say a series will end in four or five games, they are saying something bold about one team's strength in relation to the other's. To call for a sweep is to suggest a hopeless mismatch. To say five is only a tad better. A fella can piss off readers when he does that and, even worse, someone may later say that he was really, really wrong! At the same time, if he says seven, he's basically saying he has no idea which team is better, and hey, anyone can do that. "Saying six is a difference splitter. By saying six, Johnny Expert is basically saying "I think team X is better than team Y, but not so much that you can later rub how wrong I was in my face, OK?"

Still, The Common Man picks the Rays because they look better on paper, the AL is better than the NL for the umpteenth straight year, but the Phils are good enough to homer their way into a couple of wins.

2) Key Players. For Tampa, their starters (Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Sonnanstine) need to go deep and limit the exposure of Tampa's bullpen. Out in the bullpen, David Price needs to be the monster he is. For Philly, it will essential for Pat Burrell and Chris Coste to get hot and hit the pants off of Kazmir. And Hamels needs to be lights out, because...

3) Philly (and Cole Hamels) need to beat Scott Kazmir twice. Hamels is the only elite starter the Phils have, and they'll need to luck into two more wins from Myers, Moyer, and Blanton in order to pull this off. So...

4) If Philly loses game one, it's essentially done. Sure, stranger things have happened, momentum doesn't really matter, baseball's a funny game, yadda, yadda, yadda. But unless the Phils get an out of nowhere performance from one of their other starters, The Common Man doesn't see how they keep up with the Rays' consistent offense and sparkling pitchers.

5) Ryan Howard has to be a monster in games 2-4 and 6-7. He's a hell of a hitter, very strong, but definitely not used to facing the caliber of righty starters that the Rays are going to throw at him (again, AL > NL).

So there you go. Good luck to both teams, since The Common Man doesn't really have a horse in this race. The Common Man now is going to collapse in a chair and pray the world stops spinning.