Monday, November 29, 2010

Hunting Submarines

By The Common Man

Rob has an interesting question up in today’s Mendozas about Ted Abernathy, the submarine-style former Cincinnati Reds and Kansas City Royals relief ace, pointing out “His 1.70 ERA in his last season is the lowest in history for a pitcher with at least 50 innings. I wish I knew why the Royals released him after that season, and why nobody else picked him up. Because even at 40, he could still pitch.” Well, The Common Man is a sucker for a lot of things. A mysterious player disappearance is one of them. Submarine right handed relievers are another. And digging through newspaper archives is a third. The trifecta in hand, TCM went digging.

Abernathy was a huge prospect when he broke camp with the Washington Senators in 1955. He was fresh out of the army, but had shown tremendous promise in the Senators’ minor league system in the years before that. Alas, things went poorly in the nation’s capitol. Abernathy had a lot of trouble finding the plate (this actually was a problem for Abernathy throughout his career, as he would walk 4.6 batters/9 innings), and posted huge ERAs. From 1955-1957, Abernathy pitched in 71 games, starting 34 of them. He posted an ERA of 6.02 with an 8-22 record, and was walking almost as many batters as he was striking out. He never started another game again.

Likely, the high number of minor league innings, and huge number of pitches his wildness required him to throw, are what ruined his shoulder in 1957. Abernathy needed significant surgery, and he made a strategic decision to drop his arm angle from three-quarters to sidearm or submarine. He bounced around the minors for the next few seasons and got his last real shot in 1963, at 30 years old, for the Cleveland Indians.

Abernathy made the most of it. As a ground ball specialist, he shined out of the bullpen. In 59 innings, he struck out 47 and posted a 2.88 ERA. He won seven games and saved 12. He quickly became one o fthe most valuable relief aces in baseball. For the Cubs in 1965 he threw 136 innings, saved 31 games, and had a 2.57 ERA. In 1967, he saved 28 for the Reds in 106 innings with a 1.27 ERA. In 1970, the struggling Royals fired manager Charlie Metro and replaced him with pitching coach Bob Lemon, who had worked with Abernathy in Cleveland. Less than a month later, Abernathy was acquired from St. Louis and solidified the back of Kansas City’s bullpen.

In two and a half seasons, Abernathy appeared in 144 games, winning 16 and saving 40, with an ERA of 2.31 in 195 innings. In 1971, the Royals were surprising contenders in the AL West, winning 85 games and finishing second in the division behind the A’s. Abernathy saved 23 games in 63 appearances and 81 innings. His 1972 season, as Rob pointed out, was particularly impressive. While his K/9 fell, he also posted his lowest BB/9 of his career and continued to generate ground balls. His 1.70 ERA didn’t account for the four unearned runs he allowed in 58 innings, but he still had an excellent year.

The team, however, dropped below .500 again, winning 76 games and finishing 4th. Lemon was fired, replaced by rookie manager Jack McKeon (who was just 41 years old). In his press conference, team owner Ewing Kauffman announced “I want a younger manager…[and] I did not want to lose Jack McKeon from our organization. Four months later, in early February of 1973, the Royals released the 40 year old Abernathy. Royals GM Cedric Tallis told reporters that Abernathy “did an outstanding job. But at this point, we feel Ken Wright and some other younger pitchers are ready to move into the picture. We feel that making the move now, Abernathy will have a better chance of landing with another team. He is one of the finest individuals we have ever had.” Wright had finished 1972 with a 0.96 ERA in 47 innings for McKeon in AAA Omaha.

No one came calling. Abernathy signed on with the independent Wilson Pennants of the Carolina League, where he had a 3.86 ERA in 35 innings. The 1973 Royals were again competitive, finishing in 2nd place with 88 wins. They finished 10th in the American League in runs allowed, and the bullpen finished with a 4.26 ERA (the league bullpen ERA was 3.65). Ken Wright, the pitcher Tallis specifically mentioned as a replacement for Abernathy, went 6-5 with a 4.91 ERA in 81 innings. Among the club’s relievers, only 23 year old rookie Doug Bird finished with an ERA below 4.00 (Bird was 4-4 with a 2.99 ERA in 102 innings, and saved 20 games).

TCM couldn’t find any additional information about the end of Abernathy’s career. Based on circumstantial evidence, it seems likely that Abernathy was just Lemon’s guy. And at almost 40, was probably seen as a leader in the clubhouse. As a young manager coming in, McKeon may have felt uncomfortable with a team leader, who presumably had been loyal to his predecessor, who was almost the same age as he was. Indeed, the oldest player on the ’73 squad was 36 year old reliever Joe Hoerner, who was purchased mid-season from the Braves. Either McKeon felt more comfortable with “his guys,” or the front office made a concerted effort to “go younger” throughout the organization. It may have been a wasted opportunity, as a stronger bullpen could have helped the Royals compete event closer with the A’s.

Sadly, we can’t ask the best source about what happened that winter in Kansas City. Abernathy returned home to North Carolina and seemingly never worked in baseball again. He passed away in 2004 from complications of Alzheimer’s Disease.

4 comments:

Bill said...

Abernathy's FIP in 1972 was 3.02, in a league with an average ERA of 3.06. Not that I think the Royals gave any consideration to anything like that (or that releasing even a roughly average RP was necessarily a good idea), but they probably did get the sense just from watching that he didn't have a ton left and that 1972 was all a bit of a mirage.

The Common Man said...

While that's true, Abernathy's ERA outperformed his FIP by more than a full run from 1967-1972 with the exception of 1969 (when it outperformed his FIP by 0.79). That seems like more of a systemic problem with the metric in measuring the performance of non-standard pitcher than an indictment of Abernathy's performance.

Robert said...

Mariano Rivera had a 1.80 ERA last year at the age of 40. Cut him!

Thanks for the research. I saw Rob's blog the other day and had planned to follow up myself to see why Abernathy left the game while still pitching so well. I figured it was either an injury, or he simply decided to retire. I wouldn't have guessed no team wanted to give a proven, effective reliever a shot.

I think you're right regarding FIP as it relates to measuring non-standard performance. We need to look no further than another KC submarining right-hander in Dan Quisenberry, who at his peak, for nine straight seasons, had a FIP substantially higher than his ERA, including a 1.21 spread in 1981. For his entire career, his ERA was a half run lower than his FIP.

Another example, Mariano Rivera also has more than a half-run spread between ERA and FIP, producing a lower ERA in twelve out of the last fourteen seasons.

I expected to also see a large platoon split, with lefties hitting Abernathy better than righties. Not really. Up to the end, he was quite effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. His ERA+'s ranged from 128 to 299 his last six seasons, including 179 his last year.

The only possible red flag that pops out is his innings decreased sharply from a consistent 80+ to the upper 50s in last season, while his strike out rate decreased. Yet the lower innings seems based on how they used him, converting him more to a one-inning set-up man as opposed to being the closer, which back then meant usually coming in during the 8th with men on base and going for 1.1 to 2.0 innings at a clip. Perhaps they made that decision because they didn't think he quite had enough "stuff" left to be the closer, and maybe back in the early 70s relief pitchers of any type who were deemed to be limited to one-inning at time were considered less valuable than today.

I also wonder if a form of early 1970's, Baby Boomer ageism is at play here. Today, we're quite used to seeing athletes in MLB play into their late 30s and early 40s, while still performing at a high level. Look no further than the previously mentioned Rivera. Perhaps back in the early 70s, only a few years removed from the saying "Don't trust anyone over 30", the idea of a 40-year-old relief pitcher who could only toss an inning at a time was an alien concept. A potential waste of a roster spot.

Today? Abernathy at 40 would be a valuable commodity, an experienced, submarining reliever who was deadly on righties but also effective against lefties. He’d get another shot as a closer for a second-division team, or serve as an excellent eighth-inning option for a contender, drawing at least one-year offers for $5-$8 million, depending on how he'd be used, perhaps even serving as the bridge to Rivera. In 1972, he got his walking papers. Timing is everything.

Robert said...

Mariano Rivera had a 1.80 ERA last year at the age of 40. Cut him!

Thanks for the research. I saw Rob's blog the other day and had planned to follow up myself to see why Abernathy left the game while still pitching so well. I figured it was either an injury, or he simply decided to retire. I wouldn't have guessed no team wanted to give a proven, effective reliever a shot.

I think you're right regarding FIP as it relates to measuring non-standard performance. We need to look no further than another KC submarining right-hander in Dan Quisenberry, who at his peak, for nine straight seasons, had a FIP substantially higher than his ERA, including a 1.21 spread in 1981. For his entire career, his ERA was a half run lower than his FIP.

Another example, Mariano Rivera also has more than a half-run spread between ERA and FIP, producing a lower ERA in twelve out of the last fourteen seasons.

I expected to also see a large platoon split, with lefties hitting Abernathy better than righties. Not really. Up to the end, he was quite effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. His ERA+'s ranged from 128 to 299 his last six seasons, including 179 his last year.

The only possible red flag that pops out is his innings decreased sharply from a consistent 80+ to the upper 50s in last season, while his strike out rate decreased. Yet the lower innings seems based on how they used him, converting him more to a one-inning set-up man as opposed to being the closer, which back then meant usually coming in during the 8th with men on base and going for 1.1 to 2.0 innings at a clip. Perhaps they made that decision because they didn't think he quite had enough "stuff" left to be the closer, and maybe back in the early 70s relief pitchers of any type who were deemed to be limited to one-inning at time were considered less valuable than today.

I also wonder if a form of early 1970's, Baby Boomer ageism is at play here. Today, we're quite used to seeing athletes in MLB play into their late 30s and early 40s, while still performing at a high level. Look no further than the previously mentioned Rivera. Perhaps back in the early 70s, only a few years removed from the saying "Don't trust anyone over 30", the idea of a 40-year-old relief pitcher who could only toss an inning at a time was an alien concept. A potential waste of a roster spot.

Today? Abernathy at 40 would be a valuable commodity, an experienced, submarining reliever who was deadly on righties but also effective against lefties. He’d get another shot as a closer for a second-division team, or serve as an excellent eighth-inning option for a contender, drawing at least one-year offers for $5-$8 million, depending on how he'd be used, perhaps even serving as the bridge to Rivera. In 1972, he got his walking papers. Timing is everything.