Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Playoff Results by Coin Flip

By Bill

I did this last year, and it turned out terribly. But I still believe it should perform about as well as most experts' complicated previews and predictions, so I'll try it again. Heads for the team that has home-field advantage (or would if that series were to happen), tails for the other. As a new twist this year, I'm consulting for a number between 3 and 5 or 4 and 7 to tell you how many games each series will take.

The expert this morning is a 2001 penny I found in my desk drawer. Minted in Denver, so expect some anti-Giants bias:

ALDS: Rays over Rangers in 5; Yankees over Twins in 3 (damn penny/randomizer!)
NLDS: Phillies over Reds in 4; Giants over Braves in 3

ALCS: Rays over Yankees in 5
NLCS: Phillies over Giants in 4

World Series: Phillies over Rays in 5

That was a lot of heads; tails came up only once, and at the worst possible time for me, kittens and puppies, and the light side of the Force. Looks about as good a guess as any, though.


Alto said...

I like this idea. With the same rules you used and the help of a 2005 Loonie and, here are my "expert" predictions:
Rays over Rangers in 4
Twins over Yankees in 3
Reds over Phillies in 3
Braves over Giants in 3
Twins over Rays in 6
Reds over Braves in 6
Twins over Reds in 5

The Common Man said...

The Common Man did this too, except that he flipped a coin for each game of the series to figure out the winner. Using a 1939 penny, TCM found the following:
Rays over Rangers in 4
Yankees over Twins in 3 (booo)
Phillies over Reds in 3
Giants over Braves in 4
Rays over Yankees in 5
Phillies over Giants in 4
Rays over Phillies in 6

That's what luck says. TCM's official predictions on our podcast were (he believes) the Twins in 4, the Rangers in 5, the Phillies in 4, and the Giants in 3. As a true homer, he picked the Twins to win it all.

Alto said...

After a stunning 0-4 first round it's excuses time for my predictions:
Technically, a loonie has a head on each side if you count the loon. Of course, loons have tails and Queen Elizabeth II (as far as you know) does not. So that excuse is mostly out.

Maybe I've somehow confused the word "over" with the words "lose to". That works, except that I've apparently found the worst team in the playoffs in the Twins. Unfortunately, MLB has not traditionally held a consolation bracket.

Oh well, I guess my coin flipping skills just aren't good enough. I'll keep practicing for next season